1.2 Trump’s Pre-Election Plans to Declare Victory
1.2 Trump’s Pre-Election Plans to Declare Victory
¶On Halloween, advisor Steve Bannon, who had served four years earlier as Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign manager, laid out the election night plan. “What Trump’s gonna do is just declare victory. Right? He’s gonna declare victory. But that doesn’t mean he’s a winner,” Bannon told a private audience. “He’s just gonna say he’s a winner.”15 Dan Friedman, “Leaked Audio: Before Election Day, Bannon Said Trump Planned to Falsely Claim Victory,” Mother Jones, (July 12, 2022), available at https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/07/leaked-audio-steve-bannon-trump-2020-election-declare-victory/. During our October 13 hearing, Robert Costa tweeted: “CBS News has confirmed that Oct. 31, 2020, was a key date in the pre-election maneuvers by Trump. Set off alarm with WH counsel and Herschmann, among others. I’ve seen texts from that night from some aides and they knew it was no joke; declaring victory was Trump’s plan. Period.” Maggie Haberman retweeted Costa, writing: “Trump told a conference call of a bunch of lawyers and informal advisers working for him earlier that month that he was going to go up and say he won, first reported by @jonathanvswan.” Robert Costa (@costareports), Twitter, Oct. 13, 2022 1:29 p.m. ET, available at https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1580611586674151424?lang=en; see also Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT), Twitter, Oct. 13, 2022 1:35 p.m. ET, available at https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/1580613143637635072 (“Trump told a conference call of a bunch of lawyers and informal advisers working for him earlier that month that he was going to go up and say he won, first reported by @jonathanvswan”).
¶Bannon explained that the Democrats “[would] have a natural disadvantage” on election night, because more Democrats would vote by mail than Republicans and it would take time to count the mail-in ballots. This would give President Trump the illusion of a lead. “And Trump’s going to take advantage of it,” Bannon said. “That’s our strategy. He’s gonna declare himself a winner.”16 Dan Friedman, “Leaked Audio: Before Election Day, Bannon Said Trump Planned to Falsely Claim Victory,” Mother Jones, (July 12, 2022), available at https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/07/leaked-audio-steve-bannon-trump-2020-election-declare-victory/.
¶In an interview on Fox News the morning of the election, Bannon insisted that President Trump needed to address the nation that night, to “provide the narrative engine for how we go forward.”17 Fox Business, “Steve Bannon: Trump Won’t Allow the Election to Be Stolen,” YouTube, at 3:24, Nov. 3, 2020, available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDdxoyAUqoo. During an episode of his podcast later that same day, Bannon clarified what he meant: President Trump is “going to claim victory. Right? He’s going to claim victory.”18 “Steve Bannon: Donald Trump Will Claim Victory ‘Right Before the 11 O’clock News’,” Media Matters, (Nov. 3, 2020), available at https://www.mediamatters.org/steve-bannon/steve-bannon-donald-trump-will-claim-victory-right-11-oclock-news-0.
¶Tom Fitton drafted a victory statement for the President to read on election night.19 Documents on file with the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol (National Archives Production), 076P-R000010020_0001 (Email chain between Tom Fitton and Molly Michael, starting on October 31, 2020, and ending on November 3, 2020, discussing a draft victory statement for President Trump). On October 31st, he emailed the statement to President Trump’s assistant, Molly Michael, and social media guru, Dan Scavino. Fitton wrote that election day, November 3rd, was the “deadline by which voters in states across the country must choose a president.” Fitton argued that counting ballots that arrived after election day would be part of an effort by “partisans” to “overturn” the election results.20 Documents on file with the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol (National Archives Production), 076P-R000010020_0001 (Email chain between Tom Fitton and Molly Michael, starting on October 31, 2020, and ending on November 3, 2020, discussing a draft victory statement for President Trump).
¶Of course, that claim wasn’t true—mail-in ballots are regularly processed after election day. Regardless, Fitton encouraged the President to pre-emptively declare victory. “We had an election today—and I won,” Fitton wrote for President Trump.21 Documents on file with the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol (National Archives Production), 076P-R000010020_0001 (Email chain between Tom Fitton and Molly Michael, starting on October 31, 2020, and ending on November 3, 2020, discussing a draft victory statement for President Trump). Early in the evening on election day, Fitton emailed Michael again to say he had “[j]ust talked to him [President Trump] about the draft [statement].”22 Documents on file with the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol (National Archives Production), 076P-R000010020_0001 (Email chain between Tom Fitton and Molly Michael, starting on October 31, 2020, and ending on November 3, 2020, discussing a draft victory statement for President Trump). Later that evening, before President Trump made his election night remarks, Michael replied that she was “ . . redelivering to him [President Trump] now.”23 Documents on file with the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol (National Archives Production), 076P-R000010020_0001 (Email chain between Tom Fitton and Molly Michael, starting on October 31, 2020, and ending on November 3, 2020, discussing a draft victory statement for President Trump).
200¶Roger Stone, President Trump’s longtime political confidante, told several associates just prior to the election that Trump needed to declare victory—especially if the race wasn’t called on election day. “Let’s just hope we are celebrating” on election night, Stone said. “I really do suspect it will still be up in the air. When that happens, the key thing to do is claim victory.” Stone elaborated with colorful language. “Possession is nine-tenths of the law. No, we won. Fuck you. Sorry. Over. We won. You’re wrong. Fuck you.”24 Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol, Business Meeting on the January 6th Investigation, 117th Cong., 2d sess., (Oct. 13, 2022), at 38:18 - 39:32, available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQvuBoLBuC0.
¶Indeed, published reports echoed these warnings about President Trump’s election strategy. Two days before the election, Jonathan Swan of Axios reported that President Trump “has told confidants he'll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's ‘ahead.’”25 Jonathan Swan, “Trump Plans to Declare Premature Victory If He Appears on Election Night,” Axios, (Nov. 1, 2020), available at https://www.axios.com/2020/11/01/trump-claim-election-victory-ballots. Swan added that “Trump's team is preparing to falsely claim that mail-in ballots counted after Nov. 3—a legitimate count expected to favor Democrats—are evidence of election fraud.”26 Jonathan Swan, “Trump Plans to Declare Premature Victory If He Appears on Election Night,” Axios, (Nov. 1, 2020), available at https://www.axios.com/2020/11/01/trump-claim-election-victory-ballots. If the vote tally swung against Trump after election night in States such as Pennsylvania, then the Trump team would claim the Democrats had “stolen” the election.27 Jonathan Swan, “Trump Plans to Declare Premature Victory If He Appears on Election Night,” Axios, (Nov. 1, 2020), available at https://www.axios.com/2020/11/01/trump-claim-election-victory-ballots. Fox News election analysis Chris Stirewalt testified that he and his team “had gone to pains” to inform viewers that early votes would favor Republicans but the lead would be illusory “because the Trump campaign and the President had made it clear that they were going to try to exploit this anomaly.”28 Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol, Hearing on the January 6th Investigation, 117th Cong., 2d sess., (June 13, 2022), available at https://www.govinfo.gov/committee/house-january6th. Others warned that President Trump could exploit the Red Mirage as well.29 Months prior to the election, Josh Mendelsohn, the CEO of Hawkfish, a Democratic data and analytics firm, warned that President Trump would try to take advantage of the Red Mirage. See Margaret Talev, “Exclusive: Dem Group Warns of Apparent Trump Election Day Landslide,” Axios, (Sept. 1, 2020), available at https://www.axios.com/2020/09/01/bloomberg-group-trump-election-night-scenarios. For other accounts warning that election night would see a Red Mirage, see Marshall Cohen, “Deciphering the ‘Red Mirage,’ the ‘Blue Shift,’ and the Uncertainty Surrounding Election Results This November,” CNN, (Sept. 1, 2020), available at https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/politics/2020-election-count-red-mirage-blue-shift/index.html; Darragh Roche, “Trump Is Heading for a ‘Red Mirage’ Win on Election Night, Bloomberg-Funded Data Firm Says,” Newsweek, (Sept. 1, 2020), available at https://www.newsweek.com/trump-phantom-win-election-1528948; Tom McCarthy, “‘Red Mirage’: The ‘Insidious’ Scenario If Trump Declares Victory,” The Guardian, (Oct. 31, 2020), available at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/31/red-mirage-trump-election-scenario-victory.
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