WHAT THE EXPERTS HAVE SAID

¶Warnings of a Shuttle Accident

"Shuttle reliability is uncertain, but has been estimated to range between 97 and 99 percent. If the Shuttle reliability

is 98 percent, there would be a 50-50 chance of losing an Orbiter within 34 flights … The probability of maintaining at least three Orbiters in the Shuttle fleet declines to less

¶se than 50 percent after flight 113."21 ary -The Office of Technology Assessment, 1989 se

¶"And although it is a subject that meets with reluctance

¶ASA to open discussion, and has therefore too often been relegated to silence, the statistical evidence indicates FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002

that we are likely to lose another Space Shuttle in the next several years … probably before the planned Space Station is completely established on orbit. This would seem to be the weak link of the civil space program – unpleasant to recognize, involving all the uncertainties of statistics, and difficult to resolve." -The Augustine Committee, 1990

¶ant Dollars

¶002 millions) Shuttle as Developmental Vehicle

24,696 "Shuttle is also a complex system that has yet to demonstrate an ability to adhere to a fixed schedule" 10,079 -The Augustine Committee, 1990 11,643 NASA Human Space Flight Culture 17,060 "NASA has not been sufficiently responsive to valid criticism and the need for change."22 16,965 -The Augustine Committee, 1990 15,790

15,489 Faced with this budget situation, NASA had the choice of 14,994 either eliminating major programs or achieving greater efficiencies while maintaining its existing agenda. Agency lead- 14,641 ers chose to attempt the latter. They continued to develop the space station, continued robotic planetary and scientific 14,443 missions, and continued Shuttle-based missions for both scientific and symbolic purposes. In 1994 they took on the re- 14,202 sponsibility for developing an advanced technology launch vehicle in partnership with the private sector. They tried to 14,559 do this by becoming more efficient. "Faster, better, cheaper" became the NASA slogan of the 1990s.23 14,868 The flat budget at NASA particularly affected the hu- NA man space flight enterprise. During the decade before the Columbia accident, NASA rebalanced the share of its bud- NA get allocated to human space flight from 48 percent of agency funding in Fiscal Year 1991 to 38 percent in Fiscal Year 1999, with the remainder going mainly to other science and

¶agement and Budget) technology efforts. On NASAʼs fixed budget, that meant tion of Boris Yeltsin and halting the proliferation of nuclear

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