Chapter 5: Exit from lockdown (April to early July 2020)

Introduction

¶5.1. This chapter examines how the UK government and devolved administrations decided to exit from lockdown. Divergence between them began to emerge as they each adopted different approaches to the easing of restrictions. The UK government was prepared to ease restrictions at a time when the prevalence of the virus was still high. In contrast, the devolved administrations took a more cautious approach to the easing of restrictions.

¶5.2. The UK government's Covid-19 Dashboard dated 31 March 2020 recorded the total number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the UK as 25,150, with 3,009 new daily cases. The total number of confirmed deaths globally was 2,352.¹¹ INQ000088326_0001

¶5.3. By 2 April 2020, there had been 2,602 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Scotland, with 126 confirmed deaths.²² 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech 2 April 2020', Scottish Government, 2 April 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/first-minister-covid-19-update-10; INQ000354191) In Wales, by 1 April, 1,837 people had tested positive and 98 people had died.³³ INQ000321135_0001 Northern Ireland had 871 confirmed cases of Covid-19 by 1 April, with 45 deaths.⁴⁴ INQ000430391_Tab 1

¶Figure 13: Daily confirmed cases from 1 March to 30 April 2020 across the UK

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 — 20
20 20 20 20 20 20 02 20 — 20

¶ch ch ch ch ril ril il 2 ril ril ar ar ar ar Ap Ap Ap r Ap Ap

M M M M 2 9 16 23 — 30
5 12 19 — 26

¶Source: UK Health Security Agency Covid-19 data dashboard archive (https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/covid-19-archive-data-download)

¶5.4. Weekly deaths involving Covid-19 during this period (defined as deaths where Covid-19 was referred to on the death certificate) peaked in the week ending 17 April 2020 in England (8,355 deaths) and in the week ending 24 April in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (662, 413 and 128 deaths respectively).⁵⁵ See UK Health Security Agency Covid-19 data dashboard archive (https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/covid-19-archive-data-download).

216

¶Figure 14: Daily deaths per 100,000 population by date of death from 23 March to 13 July 2020 across the UK

20 20 20 — 20
20 20 20 — 20

ril ay ne ly Ju Ap M Ju

¶Source: UK Health Security Agency Covid-19 data dashboard archive (https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/covid-19-archive-data-download)

¶5.5. To respond to the growing number of cases, NHS capacity was being increased across the UK. The first NHS Nightingale hospital was announced in England on 24 March 2020.⁶⁶ INQ000232194_0078 para 326; INQ000233779. Nightingale hospitals are temporary medical facilities set up during a crisis. It was agreed at a Covid-19 Strategy Ministerial Group meeting that day that a clear plan should be developed by the Department of Health and Social Care for the construction of a further nine new hospitals. The Department of Health and Social Care and the NHS were to work with the Ministry of Defence to ensure the 10 new hospitals were operational as soon as possible.⁷⁷ INQ000056105_0001-0002 Construction started on the NHS Louisa Jordan in Glasgow, a 300-bed hospital, with the ability to expand that capacity to 1,000 beds if required.⁸⁸ 'Temporary COVID-19 medical facility', Scottish Government, 30 March 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/news/temporary-covid-19-medical-facility; INQ000587949). The hospital became operational on 19 April 2020. By 20 April 2020, the Dragon's Heart Hospital, located in the Principality Stadium in Wales, officially opened for patients, with a capacity for up to 2,000 additional beds for people with Covid-19.⁹⁹ INQ000113672 The first Nightingale hospital in Northern Ireland was announced on 2 April and had a capacity of 230 beds.¹⁰¹⁰ INQ000411550_0107-0108 paras 323-324

¶5.6. The need to scale up testing was also widely recognised. On 2 April 2020, Matt Hancock MP, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care from July 2018 to June 2021, set out a five-pillar strategy to expand testing capacity and publicly announced a target to carry out 100,000 tests a day by the end of April 2020.¹¹¹¹ 'Health and Social Care Secretary's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 2 April 2020', Department of Health and Social Care, 2 April 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/health-and-social-care-secretarys-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-2- april-2020; INQ000086583); 'Health Secretary sets out plan to carry out 100,000 coronavirus tests a day', Department of Health and Social Care, 2 April 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/health-secretary-sets-out-plan-to-carry-out-100000-coronavirus- tests-a-day; INQ000237310)Show full note Mr Hancock told the Inquiry that he did so as "the testing system [was] not scaling as fast as we needed" and the target was needed "to galvanise the whole system to deliver more tests".¹²¹² INQ000232194_0080 para 334 At that time, capacity was only 12,000 tests a day.¹³¹³ INQ000088606_0004

217

¶5.7. The Scottish Government announced its aim to increase testing capacity from 1,900 tests a day to 3,500 tests a day by the end of April.¹⁴¹⁴ 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech 3 April 2020', Scottish Government, 3 April 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/ publications/first-minister-covid-19-update-9; INQ000354245) The Welsh Government announced that there would be capacity for 9,000 tests a day in Wales by the end of April.¹⁵¹⁵ INQ000391237_0122-0123 para 469 In Northern Ireland, testing had been scaled up from 40 tests per day in January 2020 to 736 tests per day. Northern Ireland's testing strategy would "align with the UK's strategic approach to scale-up of testing" where possible and would "also take account of testing plans in the Republic of Ireland".¹⁶¹⁶ INQ000103649_0011-0012 paras 2.7, 3.3 The Inquiry is addressing the systems for test, trace and isolate in detail in Module 7: Test, trace and isolate.