Optimism versus caution

¶12.54. Public communications in a health emergency require a difficult balance to be struck between optimism and caution. A proper balance was not always struck during the pandemic. While official UK government documents – such as The Next Chapter in Our Plan to Rebuild: The UK Government's COVID-19 Recovery Strategy – did generally refer to the possibility of restrictions being tightened again, the UK government's communications were often punctuated by expressions of over-optimism from Mr Johnson.⁹⁴⁹⁴ The Next Chapter in Our Plan to Rebuild: The UK Government's COVID-19 Recovery Strategy, HM Government, July 2020, p11 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy; INQ000137239_0015) While it is acknowledged that such exhortations were, presumably, designed to try to keep people's spirits up – in itself a laudable aim – on these occasions Mr Johnson failed to convey a proper sense of caution, thereby undermining his government's public health messaging.

¶12.55. For example, in a press conference on 3 March 2020, Mr Johnson said:

" I was at a hospital the other night where I think there were actually a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody."⁹⁵⁹⁵ INQ000231042_0009

¶This undermined the handwashing campaign that was launched by the UK government the following day.

¶12.56. On 19 March 2020 – four days before announcing the first lockdown – Mr Johnson said: "I do think, looking at it all, that we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks."⁹⁶⁹⁶ INQ000237504_0002 Although Mr Johnson qualified his statement during questions from the media in the press conference, it was the "turn the tide" phrase that made news headlines.⁹⁷⁹⁷ 'PM: We can "turn the tide" on coronavirus crisis', BBC News, 19 March 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51966721; INQ000573866); INQ000064491_0006 There was never a realistic prospect of 'turning the tide' in 12 weeks, given the UK government's own expectations of further waves of the virus. The statement was liable to build false belief among the public that the pandemic would be relatively short-lived. The final Covid-19-related legal restrictions in England were not lifted until 24 February 2022 – 101 weeks after Mr Johnson made this statement.

¶12.57. On 17 July 2020, Mr Johnson set out the conditional plan for removing the restrictions on society and the economy in England over the remainder of 2020. During his remarks, Mr Johnson noted: "[I]t is important to give people hope and to give business confidence."⁹⁸⁹⁸ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 17 July 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 17 July 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-17-july-2020; INQ000234406_0007) He said:

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" It is my strong and sincere hope that we will be able to review the outstanding restrictions and allow a more significant return to normality from November at the earliest – possibly in time for Christmas."⁹⁹⁹⁹ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 17 July 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 17 July 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-17-july-2020; INQ000234406_0008)

¶12.58. Mr Cain told the Inquiry that the UK government should have been more cautious in setting out its expectations as lockdown restrictions were lifted. He said:

" Any over confidence that we had 'defeated' covid or would be 'returning to normal' would be treated, at best, sceptically and, with the likelihood of a second lockdown in the winter, I felt it could significantly erode public trust in the government if we moved too quickly."¹⁰⁰¹⁰⁰ INQ000252711_0026 para 120

¶12.59. Professor Reicher said that there was a need in this period to avoid – and to avoid promoting – wishful thinking, and he explained that the risk of doing so was that people would stop adhering to the precautions that had become part of the pandemic response:

" [T]he lifting of restrictions by the UK Government on July 4th … encouraged an unrealistic sense that the pandemic was finished, people were safe and that they could revert to old ways."¹⁰¹¹⁰¹ INQ000370347_0044 para 91

¶12.60. Similar criticism can be levelled at the Scottish Government's expressions of belief in the summer of 2020 that 'zero Covid' and 'elimination' could be achieved (discussed in Chapter 5: Exit from lockdown, in Volume I). Professor Andrew Morris (Professor of Medicine at the University of Edinburgh and Chair of the Scottish Government Covid-19 Advisory Group) explained that "a zero COVID approach" has the "objective to eliminate the virus, not merely suppress it".¹⁰²¹⁰² INQ000346264_0050 para 220 However, Ms Sturgeon told the Inquiry that the Scottish Government "colloquially" used terms such as "zero Covid" and "elimination" to describe a "maximum suppression strategy" and not a policy to eliminate the virus in Scotland.¹⁰³¹⁰³ Nicola Sturgeon 31 January 2024 187/2-10

¶12.61. Despite this, the language of 'elimination' was on occasion used publicly by Ms Sturgeon. On 26 June 2020, during a statement about the ongoing pandemic response, she announced: "Suppressing the virus, driving it as far as we can towards total elimination has to be our overriding priority."¹⁰⁴¹⁰⁴ INQ000235122_0005 Ms Sturgeon predicted in June 2020 that Scotland was "not far away" from eliminating the virus.¹⁰⁵¹⁰⁵ 'Scotland "not far away" from eliminating coronavirus', BBC News, 26 June 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53195166; INQ000357836) This type of language risked giving the impression to the Scottish public that the emergency was almost over and that life could return to normal imminently. This was described by Professor Devi Sridhar (Professor of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh and a member of the Scottish Government Covid-19 Advisory Group) as possibly an "unintended consequence" of the Scottish Government's strategy at that time.¹⁰⁶¹⁰⁶ Devi Sridhar 23 January 2024 158/21-159/24

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¶12.62. In August 2020, the 'Eat Out to Help Out' scheme – designed by Mr Sunak and the Treasury, and approved by Mr Johnson – was launched. Mr Cain told the Inquiry that the scheme, alongside the lifting of other restrictions on social mixing, indicated "to people that Covid's over", noting:

" [T]hat is fine if you are intent on never having to do suppression measures again, but from all of the evidence we were receiving, from all of the advice that we were receiving, it was incredibly clear we were certainly going to have to do suppression next again."¹⁰⁷¹⁰⁷ Lee Cain 31 October 2023 63/7-11. The Eat Out to Help Out scheme is explored in more detail in Chapter 6: The second wave, in Volume I.

¶12.63. The scheme might have contributed to a belief that the pandemic was effectively over, even though the government itself was aware of the significant risk that there would be further waves of the virus. An inappropriate degree of optimism was seen again in the lead-up to Christmas 2020, when Mr Johnson made assurances as late as 16 December that three households would be able to meet on Christmas Day, despite rising infection levels – only to announce new restrictions on 19 December for those people living in areas subject to Tier 4 restrictions.¹⁰⁸¹⁰⁸ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 16 December 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 16 December 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-16- december-2020; INQ000086622); 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 19 December 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 19 December 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid- 19-19-december-2020; INQ000086623)Show full note

¶12.64. It is understandable that Mr Johnson would want to convey optimism in his communications, and he rightly recognised the importance of trying to provide certainty to individuals and businesses. The UK government was, however, aware that there would likely be more waves of the virus, and Mr Johnson's main communications adviser was urging a more cautious tone. His over-optimism risked damaging the public's trust in the UK government's messaging in subsequent lockdowns and, in turn, levels of compliance with public health regulations.

¶12.65. A similar approach can be seen in communications emanating from the Scottish Government as the strategy in Scotland developed, in the summer of 2021, towards a focus on recovery (discussed in Chapter 8: Learning to live with Covid-19, in Volume I). In his media appearances, Professor Leitch was often asked about the lifting of restrictions in the future, and he acknowledged that sometimes he "overspoke" and "got ahead of myself".¹⁰⁹¹⁰⁹ Jason Leitch 23 January 2024 53/1-9 The nuance of his answer would usually be "lost in … translation" in the subsequent coverage of his remarks.¹¹⁰¹¹⁰ Jason Leitch 23 January 2024 54/3-22

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¶12.66. This resulted in the public wrongly gaining an overly optimistic impression of the course of the pandemic and an underestimation of the significant impact of the second and third waves in Scotland.¹¹¹¹¹¹ On 25 May 2021, Ms Sturgeon said that there were signs for "cautious optimism" despite an increase in the number of Covid-19 cases in Scotland, describing this as a "bump in the road" (INQ000354333_0002, 0006). Frequent references to the possibility of restrictions being lifted or certain activities being allowed at some point soon created the expectation that they would be. This created a risk that the public's trust in the Scottish Government's messaging would be damaged, and that levels of compliance with public health regulations would be affected.

¶12.67. In contrast, the tone of public-facing communications in Wales and Northern Ireland remained more cautious. On 31 July 2020, Mr Drakeford explained that, while the Welsh Government could continue to lift the lockdown, "coronavirus has not gone away. This pandemic will not be over by Christmas."¹¹²¹¹² INQ000090604_0001 Almost one year later, Mr Drakeford continued to warn: "[T]he pandemic is not over yet."¹¹³¹¹³ INQ000090698_0006

¶12.68. Similarly, in Northern Ireland, while acknowledging the encouraging news that there were no reported deaths and no Covid-19 patients in intensive care units, Mr Swann cautioned in a press conference on 30 June 2020:

" Whilst the spread of the virus has slowed, it remains a serious threat in Northern Ireland … I cannot stress enough the dangers that remain."¹¹⁴¹¹⁴ 'Televised press conference by The Executive Office', YouTube, 30 June 2020 (https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=V4RxROMS8DA; INQ000263000)

¶In February 2021, Mr Swann was still sounding a note of caution, urging the public in

¶Northern Ireland: "Never ever underestimate Covid-19 and the damage it can do."¹¹⁵¹¹⁵ INQ000381448_0001

¶12.69. These messages were transparent and served as a strong reminder to the people of Wales and Northern Ireland that Covid-19 had not gone away. This approach is to be commended because it set appropriate expectations for the public that restrictions could well continue into the future and that both the Welsh Government and the Northern Ireland Executive were prepared to adopt more stringent measures if they felt they were required.