The importance of acting quickly

¶15.22. Professor Sir Patrick Vallance (later Lord Vallance of Balham), Government Chief Scientific Adviser from April 2018 to March 2023, told the Inquiry that the "most important lesson" he had learned was:

" when dealing with a pandemic, you have to impose restrictions earlier than you would like, harder than you would like, and broader than you would like".⁹⁹ INQ000238826_0071, 0097 paras 225, 299

¶The Inquiry agrees that early and decisive action is required.

Lesson 5: Act early

¶15.23. In a pandemic, where there is exponential growth (ie where the rate of growth accelerates over time), taking action early is critical to mitigating the impact of the pandemic. The importance of early action is now recognised and reflected in the

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¶World Health Organization Pandemic Agreement of 20 May 2025, which includes a commitment to improve disease surveillance in order to detect and respond to new health threats sooner.¹⁰¹⁰ WHO Pandemic Agreement, World Health Organization, 20 May 2025 (https://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/WHA78/A78_R1- en.pdf; INQ000625631). This has been adopted by the UK government; see 'UK adopts historic Pandemic Agreement', Department of Health and Social Care, 20 May 2025 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-adopts-historic-pandemic-agreement; INQ000618521). Not making a decision is itself a decision not to act, with – as we saw in the Covid-19 pandemic – certain benefits but potentially greater harms.

¶15.24. This may mean taking action before definitive evidence is available in order to retain a choice about how to respond and to avoid being forced to take more extreme measures later. Delaying or failing to act quickly will have an impact, since days and weeks matter in an emergency. Early action is more likely to protect lives and may, more generally, reduce the financial, economic and societal costs associated with allowing the scale of the emergency to grow unchecked. There is also the additional benefit that this may provide time to understand the effect of those early restrictions on the spread of the disease.

Lesson 6: Act decisively

¶15.25. Similarly, investing resources and effort in significant early action may well be effective in avoiding more draconian measures later. This may require stricter restrictions than might, at first blush, appear necessary in the face of the risk as it stands. However, as this Report has found, early introduction of more proportionate and sustainable interventions during the Covid-19 pandemic (such as contact tracing, self-isolation, face coverings and respiratory hygiene) may have avoided or minimised the need for harsher measures, such as mandatory lockdowns, later.