The importance of data

The importance of data

¶15.32. Good-quality data are critical to help inform both good advice and good decision-making. In a pandemic, there are numerous factors that need to be understood, all of which require data.

Lesson 9: Collect reliable and timely data

¶15.33. In many emergencies, a huge range of data will be required to enable the right decisions to be taken at the right time.

¶15.34. For example, in a pandemic, decision-makers need to know "the features and characteristics of the pathogen causing it".¹¹¹¹ INQ000251645_0061 para 5.62 This requires data to help understand the modes of transmission. Regular reviews of these characteristics should be undertaken during future pandemics and should form the key triggers for action in any revised pandemic strategy. They should also be part of the data reviewed by decision-makers whenever decisions are taken in subsequent pandemics.

¶15.35. Infection rates are also key. It is important that decision-makers understand the proportion of the population with the disease. Testing is required for accurate diagnosis, but this testing – together with surveillance – also provides data about the prevalence of a pathogen and its transmissibility. A rapid testing system will facilitate measures to prevent an infected person passing on the pathogen and the early detection of variants that might 'escape' the immunity conferred by prior infection or vaccines. In a health crisis, health service capacity will also be important, both in terms of the pandemic and the impact on non-pandemic treatments.

¶15.36. Plans should aim to capture data in as close to real-time as possible, to minimise the lag between the data collection and use in decision-making. It will be vitally important that decision-makers understand these challenges in advance, in order to decide how best to act and to react as information changes.

¶15.37. To ensure that relevant data are available in sufficient time, governments and other responders must identify, in advance, what data are likely to be needed and have plans for how to obtain these. Once an emergency strikes, those plans can then be implemented quickly, to enable decision-making about what actions to take when. It will also be helpful to anticipate what data will be limited, such as in the early stages when little will be known about a novel virus. Modelling, for example, may well be vitally important when trying to understand the scale of the pandemic and the impact of interventions being considered. There are limits, however, to what models can achieve. Decision-makers must recognise that they will need to act on imperfect information and consider in advance how they will do so without delay.

Lesson 10: Present useful data

¶15.38. It is not enough to have the right data – data must be presented clearly to decision-makers in order to enable them to analyse the information, apply it to their key objectives and then decide the most appropriate action. Information that is out of date, incomplete or received too late will have an impact on the effectiveness of decision-making.

¶15.39. Those in government at the time of a crisis – and others charged with implementing the response – may not necessarily be experts in the relevant scientific, mathematical or technical issues. Support may therefore be required to ensure that the important data are readily understandable or to provide adequate explanations. The limitations of data must also be understood and clearly explained. Quantitative data will also need to be balanced with qualitative information, such as the experience of those on the front line of any response. Forecasts and models are not predictions – they are simply tools to help understand the impact of potential decisions. This fact should be communicated and repeated so that members of the public (and decision-makers) understand the distinction.

Applying these lessons

¶15.40. The UK Government Resilience Action Plan and the accompanying Chronic Risks Analysis, published in July 2025, provide a welcome update to preparedness for civil emergencies.¹²¹² The UK Government Resilience Action Plan, HM Government, July 2025 (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/ media/686d2fab10d550c668de3c6c/CCS0525299414-001_PN9801267_Cabinet_Office_-_HMG_Resilience_Strategy__3_.pdf; INQ000625629); Chronic Risks Analysis, HM Government, 8 July 2025 (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6890acc9e8ba9507fc1b09a6/Chronic_Risks_Analysis__CRA_.pdf; INQ000625628)Show full note As the action plan notes, the risks are evolving. Further work will be required from the responsible government departments and other bodies to develop and scrutinise the detailed plans that sit beneath it.

¶15.41. The ongoing refinement of UK government resilience plans – and comparable plans by the devolved administrations – should draw on the many areas for improvement and lessons learned identified by this Inquiry in its reports.

¶15.42. The UK government and devolved administrations owe a duty to their people to ensure that we are as well prepared as reasonably possible to meet any new threat. The cost of not doing so would be immense. More importantly, as a nation, we owe it to those who lost their lives, as well as those who continue to live with the consequences, direct and indirect, of the Covid-19 pandemic.