UK Covid-19 Inquiry, Modules 2, 2A, 2B, 2C: Core decision-making and political governance, Volume I · 2025

Volume I: Introduction and key events from January 2020 to May

Section 2 of 59

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Volume I: Introduction and key events from January 2020 to May

¶Introduction by The Rt Hon the Baroness Hallett DBE xiii Voices xvii

Executive summary — 1
Key events from January 2020 to May 2022 — 2
Key themes — 8
Key lessons for future emergencies — 13
Specific recommendations — 14

¶Chapter 1: The context for pandemic decision-making – key structures and concepts 16 Introduction 17

Key structures — 17
Key scientific concepts — 21

¶Chapter 2: The emergence of Covid-19 (January and February 2020) 32 Introduction 33

January 2020: Emerging understanding — 33
The situation at the end of January 2020 — 53
February 2020: The spread of the virus — 57
Border controls and restrictions — 78
The situation at the end of February 2020 — 80
Lost time — 91
Chapter 3: The first 12 days of March 2020 — 92

¶Introduction 93

1 to 3 March 2020 — 94
The initial plan for the response — 104
4 to 12 March 2020 — 119

¶The move from 'contain' to 'delay' and self-isolation advice 137

The end of community testing and tracing contacts — 144
The situation on 12 March 2020 — 147

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Chapter 4: Realisation and lockdown (13 to 23 March 2020)

¶Introduction 149

Public health data and NHS capacity at 13 March 2020 — 149
13 March 2020: New data and a dawning realisation — 153
The weekend of 14 and 15 March 2020 — 159
The situation on 15 March 2020 — 169
16 March 2020: An 'advisory' lockdown — 170
17 March 2020 — 177
18 March 2020: Closing schools and London lockdown — 179
19 and 20 March: Additional restrictions — 184
The weekend of 21 and 22 March 2020 — 191
The lockdown decision: 23 March 2020 — 194
Decision-making leading to the lockdown decision — 199
The inevitability of a lockdown — 213
Chapter 5: Exit from lockdown (April to early July 2020) — 214
Introduction — 215
Plans for reviewing lockdown — 217
April 2020: Reviews of lockdown — 220
May 2020: Planning for lifting lockdown — 234
June 2020: Reopening — 247
Further easing of restrictions in July 2020 — 259
The divergence of approaches across the UK — 265

¶Chapter 6: The second wave (mid-July to early December 2020) 266 Introduction 267

July and August 2020 — 268
The situation at the end of August 2020 — 280
September 2020 — 281
The situation at the end of September 2020 — 297
Local restrictions: England and Scotland — 299
Circuit breakers in Wales and Northern Ireland — 307
A second lockdown in England — 319
November and early December 2020 — 329

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Chapter 7: Further lockdowns (December 2020 to April 2021) — 333

¶Introduction 334

December 2020 to early January 2021 — 334
February to April 2021 — 362
The situation by the end of April 2021 — 372
Winter lockdowns and exit plans — 374

¶Chapter 8: Learning to live with Covid-19 (May 2021 to May 2022) 376 Introduction 377

May to July 2021 — 377
The situation at the end of July 2021 — 396
August to October 2021 — 399
The situation at the end of October 2021 — 406
Omicron: November and December 2021 — 408
The situation at the end of December 2021 — 427
January to May 2022 — 430
The situation at the end of May 2022 — 436
A new normal — 438

¶Volume II: Key themes, lessons and recommendations Voices vii

Chapter 9: Scientific and technical advice — 1
Introduction — 2
Scientific advice — 2
Economic advice — 47
Support for advisers — 53
Chapter 10: Vulnerabilities and inequalities — 59
Introduction — 60
Consideration of particularly vulnerable people — 61
Consideration of indirect harms — 80
Impact assessments, including the public sector equality duty — 85
Identification of vulnerable groups — 90

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Chapter 11: Government decision-making — 97
Introduction — 98
Emergency decision-making — 98
A framework for emergency decision-making — 122
The role of leaders — 138
Chapter 12: Public health communications — 158
Introduction — 159
Communications campaigns during the Covid-19 pandemic — 159
Complexity and change — 170
Optimism versus caution — 174
Clarity of geographic scope in messaging — 177
Delivering the message: Press conferences — 179
Accessibility — 184
Chapter 13: Legislation and enforcement — 191
Introduction — 192
The legal framework for health emergencies in early 2020 — 192
The legislative response to the Covid-19 pandemic — 195
The clarity of the rules — 209
Enforcing the law — 216
Legislative planning for future emergencies — 224
Chapter 14: Intergovernmental working — 226
Introduction — 227
Engagement with local and regional authorities — 227
Intergovernmental working during Covid-19 — 234
Chapter 15: Key lessons for future emergencies — 261
Introduction — 262
The importance of planning — 262
The importance of an unambiguous strategy — 265
The importance of acting quickly — 266
The importance of working together — 267
The importance of data — 268
Applying these lessons — 270

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