5. 7 THE RETURN OF SCHEDULE PRESSURE

¶The International Space Station has been the centerpiece of NASAʼs human space flight program in the 1990s. In several instances, funds for the Shuttle Program have paid for various International Space Station items. The Space Station has also affected the Space Shuttle Program schedule. By the time the functional cargo block Zarya, the Space Stationʼs first element, was launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan in November 1998, the Space Station was two years behind schedule. The launch of STS-88, the first of many Shuttle missions assigned to station assembly, followed a month later. Another four assembly missions in 1999 and 2000 readied the station for its first permanent crew, Expedition 1, which arrived in late 2000.

¶When the Bush Administration came to the White House in January 2001, the International Space Station program was $4 billion over its projected budget. The Administrationʼs Fiscal Year 2002 budget, released in February 2001, declared that the International Space Station would be limited to a "U.S Core Complete" configuration, a reduced design that could accommodate only three crew members. The last step in completing the U.S. portion of this configuration would be the addition of the Italian-supplied but U.S.- owned "Node 2," which would allow Europe and Japan to connect their laboratory modules to the Station. Launching Node 2 and thereby finishing "core complete" configuration became an important political and programmatic milestone (see Figure 5.7-1).

¶Node 2 igure 5.7-1. The "Core Complete" configuration of the Interna- ional Space Station.

¶During congressional testimony in May of 2001, Sean OʼKeefe, who was then Deputy Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, presented the Administrationʼs plan to bring International Space Station costs under control. The plan outlined a reduction in assembly and logistics flights to reach "core complete" configuration from 36 to 30. It also recommended redirecting about $1 billion in funding by canceling U.S. elements not yet completed, such as the habitation module and the X-38 Crew Return Vehicle. The X-38 would have allowed emergency evacuation and landing capability for a seven-member station crew. Without it, the crew was limited to three, the number that could fit into a Russian Soyuz crew rescue vehicle.

¶In his remarks, OʼKeefe stated:

¶NASAʼs degree of success in gaining control of cost growth on Space Station will not only dictate the capabilities that the Station will provide, but will send a strong signal about the ability of NASAʼs Human Space

¶Flight program to effectively manage large development programs. NASAʼs credibility with the Administration and the Congress for delivering on what is promised and the longer-term implications that such credibility may have on the future of Human Space Flight hang in the balance.72

¶At the request of the White House Office of Management and Budget, in July 2001 NASA Administrator Dan Goldin formed an International Space Station Management and Cost Evaluation Task Force. The International Space Station Management and Cost Evaluation Task Force was to assist NASA in identifying the reforms needed to restore the Station Programʼs fiscal and management credibility.

117

¶While the primary focus of the Task Force was on the Space Station Program management, its November 2001 report issued a general condemnation of how NASA, and particularly Johnson Space Center, had managed the International Space Station, and by implication, NASAʼs overall human space flight effort. 73 The report noted "existing deficiencies in management structure, institutional culture, cost estimating, and program control," and that "the institutional needs of the [human space flight] Centers are driving the Program, rather than Program requirements being served by the Centers." The Task Force suggested that as a cost control measure, the Space Shuttle be limited to four flights per year and that NASA revise the station crew rotation period to six months. The cost savings that would result from eliminating flights could be used to offset cost overruns.

¶NASA accepted a reduced flight rate. The Space Shuttle Program office concluded that, based on a rate of four flights a year, Node 2 could be launched by February 19, 2004.

¶In testimony before the House Committee on Science on November 7, 2001, Task Force Chairman Thomas Young identified what became known as a "performance gate." He suggested that over the next two years, NASA should plan and implement a credible "core complete" program. In Fall 2003, "an assessment would be made concerning the ISS program performance and NASAʼs credibility. If satisfactory, resource needs would be assessed and an [ISS] ʻend stateʼ that realized the science potential would become the baseline. If unsatisfactory, the core complete program would become the ʻend state.ʼ "74

¶Testifying the same day, Office of Management and Budget Deputy Director Sean OʼKeefe indicated the Administrationʼs agreement with the planned performance gate:

¶The concept presented by the task force of a decision gate in two years that could lead to an end state other than the U.S. core complete Station is an innovative approach, and one the Administration will adopt. It calls for NASA to make the necessary management reforms to successfully build the core complete Station and operate it within the $8.3 billion available through FY 2006 plus other human space flight resources … If NASA fails to meet the standards, then an end-state beyond core complete is not an option. The strategy places the burden of proof on NASA performance to ensure that NASA fully implements the needed reforms.75

¶Mr. OʼKeefe added in closing:

¶A most important next step – one on which the success of all these reforms hinges – is to provide new leadership for NASA and its Human Space Flight activities. NASA has been well-served by Dan Goldin. New leadership is now necessary to continue moving the ball down the

field with the goal line in sight. The Administration rec- ognizes the importance of getting the right leaders in place as soon as possible, and I am personally engaged in making sure that this happens.

¶A week later, Sean OʼKeefe was nominated by President Bush as the new NASA Administrator.

¶To meet the new flight schedule, in 2002 NASA revised its Shuttle manifest, calling for a docking adaptor to be installed in Columbia after the STS-107 mission so that it could make an October 2003 flight to the International Space Station. Columbia was not optimal for Station flights – the Orbiter could not carry enough payload – but it was assigned to this flight because Discovery was scheduled for 18 months of major maintenance. To ensure adequate Shuttle availability for the February 2004 Node 2 launch date, Columbia would fly an International Space Station resupply mission.

¶The White House and Congress had put the International Space Station Program, the Space Shuttle Program, and indeed NASA on probation. NASA had to prove it could meet schedules within cost, or risk halting Space Station construction at core complete – a configuration far short of what NASA anticipated. The new NASA management viewed the achievement of an on-schedule Node 2 launch as an endorsement of its successful approach to Shuttle and Station Programs. Any suggestions that it would be difficult to meet that launch date were brushed aside.

¶This insistence on a fixed launch schedule was worrisome. The International Space Station Management and Cost Evaluation Task Force, in particular, was concerned with the emphasis on a specific launch date. It noted in its 2002 review of progress toward meeting its recommendations that "significant progress has been made in nearly all aspects of the ISS Program," but that there was "significant risk with the Node 2 (February ʼ04) schedule."76

¶By November 2002, NASA had flown 16 Space Shuttle missions dedicated to Station assembly and crew rotation. Five crews had lived onboard the Station, the last four of them delivered via Space Shuttles. As the Station had grown, so had the complexity of the missions required to complete it. With the International Space Station assembly more than half complete, the Station and Shuttle programs had become irreversibly linked. Any problems with or per- turbations to the planned schedule of one program rever- berated through both programs. For the Shuttle program, this meant that the conduct of all missions, even non-Station missions like STS-107, would have an impact on the Node 2 launch date.

¶In 2002, this reality, and the events of the months that would follow, began to place additional schedule pressures on the Space Shuttle Program. Those pressures are discussed in Section 6.2.