18 March 2020: Closing schools and London lockdown

¶4.102. The Welsh Government had been working on the assumption on 17 March 2020 that the "best thing to do would be to keep schools open". However, Mr Drakeford and Kirsty Williams MS (Minister for Education in the Welsh Government from May 2016 to May 2021) jointly decided on the morning of 18 March that schools in Wales should be advised to close from 20 March.²³⁴²³⁴ INQ000362237_0024, 0026 paras 91, 97; see also INQ000349180_0003; Vaughan Gething 11 March 2024 132/20-25, 133/1-23 Schools would be repurposed to support "those most in need, including people involved in the immediate response to the coronavirus outbreak".²³⁵²³⁵ INQ000362237_0026-0027 para 100 Dr Orford advised the Covid-19 Core Group that morning that the NHS was "four to five weeks away from maximum capacity".²³⁶²³⁶ INQ000215172_0001 para 3

¶4.103. Mr Cummings sent a message to Mr Johnson that morning stating:

" All schools nationwide closed from Friday [ie 20 March]. Announced today. Minimum. I think London lockdown from Saturday."²³⁷²³⁷ INQ000048313_0009

¶4.104. Mr Cummings also messaged Professor Vallance that morning and said that the "soft" advisory social distancing restrictions that had been introduced on 16 March 2020 were "causing a lot of confusion" among the public.²³⁸²³⁸ INQ000061693_0002 Professor Vallance agreed:

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" We need to have the effect on behaviour and if we are not then we need to go harder and make it clear we mean it."²³⁹²³⁹ INQ000061693_0002

¶4.105. School closures in England were discussed at the Covid-19 Strategy Ministerial Group meeting at 09:15, ahead of further advice from SAGE that day.²⁴⁰²⁴⁰ INQ000056261; INQ000056050 According to Sir Gavin Williamson MP, Secretary of State for Education from July 2019 to September 2021, his recommendation to Mr Johnson was that schools should close on 3 April 2020 for the Easter holiday and thereafter should be open only for vulnerable children.²⁴¹²⁴¹ INQ000268013_0015 para 4.5.8 However, the minutes of the meeting recorded him saying that schools should close in England on 20 March 2020, before being repurposed to provide childcare to key workers and to children in need or at risk.²⁴²²⁴² INQ000056261_0003 Mr Johnson told the Inquiry that he recognised at this point that school closures were "now inevitable".²⁴³²⁴³ INQ000255836_0059 para 235 In Module 8: Children and young people, the Inquiry is examining in further detail the sequence of decision-making about the closure of schools.

¶4.106. At the meeting, they also considered a paper entitled '"Lockdown" in London' which discussed options for imposing strict measures to curb the spread of Covid-19.²⁴⁴²⁴⁴ INQ000056052; INQ000056261; INQ000107255 The most recent data showed a 30% increase in overnight cases and deaths.²⁴⁵²⁴⁵ INQ000056261_0003 Although the data lagged behind slightly, the trend was considered likely to be accurate and there would be a two-week lag before the measures already taken would have an impact.²⁴⁶²⁴⁶ INQ000056261_0003 As a result, the impact of those measures in reducing R – and therefore whether they were sufficient to bring cases within NHS capacity in England – would not be known for two weeks.

¶4.107. It was agreed that restrictions for London would be discussed at the Covid-19 Strategy Ministerial Group meeting the following morning and COBR would take a decision on school closures later that afternoon.²⁴⁷²⁴⁷ INQ000056123_0001 paras 1, 4

¶4.108. The Scottish Government had been considering the closure of schools during the previous week. At the Scottish Cabinet meeting held on 17 March 2020, it was noted:

" [The] epidemiological evidence did not suggest that this measure would slow the transmission of COVID-19 down to a great extent (and might in fact cause some additional infections – for example by increasing children's exposure to grandparents over 70)."²⁴⁸²⁴⁸ INQ000078529_0005 para c

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¶4.109. The Scottish Cabinet agreed that:

" [t]he advantages and drawbacks of closing schools and other educational establishments should be considered further over coming days in light of emerging evidence across the UK".²⁴⁹²⁴⁹ INQ000078529_0009 para 19d

¶However, Ms Sturgeon and John Swinney MSP (Deputy First Minister of Scotland from November 2014 to March 2023) discussed school closures after the Cabinet meeting on 17 March 2020 and again on 18 March.²⁵⁰²⁵⁰ INQ000362664_0004-0005 para 18; INQ000273979_0009 para 19 Mr Swinney explained that, on the evening of 17 March, he had received advice that it was "likely that SAGE on 18 March would conclude that the epidemiological case was in place for the closure of schools".²⁵¹²⁵¹ John Swinney 30 January 2024 185/5-14 There was declining school attendance.²⁵²²⁵² John Swinney 30 January 2024 186/2-9 Ms Sturgeon noted that concerned parents were now "voting with their feet" by not sending their children to school.²⁵³²⁵³ INQ000339033_0076 para 201

¶4.110. On 18 March 2020, Ms Sturgeon and Mr Swinney decided schools should be closed in Scotland. The Scottish Cabinet was not consulted. Mr Swinney explained that there was no time to undertake any equality impact assessment about the closure of schools.²⁵⁴²⁵⁴ John Swinney 30 January 2024 189/2-12 He accepted that the Scottish Government did not consider alternatives to school closures at the time because of the "severity" of the situation.²⁵⁵²⁵⁵ John Swinney 30 January 2024 191/16-25 At about 14:00 that afternoon, before SAGE had met to agree its advice on school closures, Ms Sturgeon announced that "schools will close to pupils at the end of this week" and she could not promise that "they will reopen before the summer holidays".²⁵⁶²⁵⁶ 'Coronavirus: Scottish schools "may be shut until summer"', BBC News, 18 March 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk- scotland-51947670; INQ000651704). This was confirmed by the Deputy First Minister on 19 March 2020 (INQ000573861).

¶4.111. SAGE met later that afternoon, after decisions had already been taken to close schools in Scotland and Wales, to consider the modelling it had commissioned from SPI-M-O on 16 March 2020 on school closures.²⁵⁷²⁵⁷ INQ000075664_0002 paras 2, 17; INQ000075778 SPI-M-O had produced its 'Consensus view on the impact of school closures on Covid-19' the previous day. It stated that there was "a great deal of uncertainty around the extent to which children have a role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2".²⁵⁸²⁵⁸ INQ000074903_0002 para 5 However:

" accounting for the policies announced on 16th March, and in the absence of school closures, NHS critical care capacity is likely or highly likely to be breached in the short to medium term … It is almost certain that school closures will not make the epidemic worse, and that they would reduce both the epidemic peak and expected number of cases. Our best assessment is that they would reduce the reproduction number by between 10% and 20% … School closures would need to last several months to maintain the effect seen."²⁵⁹²⁵⁹ INQ000074903_0002-0004 paras 8, 9, 18

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¶SAGE therefore advised:

" [A]vailable evidence now supports implementing school closures on a national level as soon as practicable to prevent NHS intensive care capacity being exceeded."²⁶⁰²⁶⁰ INQ000075778_0002 para 2

¶4.112. SAGE also explained that the restrictions that had been implemented on 16 March 2020 should have a significant effect if compliance rates were good, but if they were not, then additional restrictions would be needed.²⁶¹²⁶¹ INQ000075778_0002 para 3 However, reliable data on their impact would not be available for two to three weeks, which would be too long to inform decision-making as additional interventions to prevent NHS capacity being exceeded could be needed before then.²⁶²²⁶² INQ000075778_0002 para 4 It was known, therefore, only 2 days after the advisory lockdown was announced, that it would take up to 21 days for its impact to be properly assessed. SAGE also discussed the possibility of implementing further restrictions for London, given it "may be 1-2 weeks ahead of the rest of the country".²⁶³²⁶³ INQ000075778_0003 para 28

¶4.113. Mr Cummings sent Mr Johnson a message at 15:42 from the SAGE meeting, stating:

" Am sitting in SAGE – not only they saying close all schools now but also London lockdown asap with some exceptions – but pubs etc closed by order of gvt by Fri pm … MAY BE ONLY WAY TO STOP LONDON NHS COLLAPSE IN 15 DAYS."²⁶⁴²⁶⁴ INQ000048313_0009

¶Professor Vallance said that this advice was driven by SAGE's "concerns about the rapid doubling time and number of infections".²⁶⁵²⁶⁵ INQ000238826_0094-0095 para 290 With a short doubling time, as Professor Whitty explained, "epidemics can expand from small numbers to very large numbers extremely rapidly".²⁶⁶²⁶⁶ INQ000251645_0058 para 5.48 Over a 30-day period, a doubling time of 3 days would generate 16 times as many cases as a doubling time of 5 days and almost 50 times as many cases as a doubling time of 7 days. Professor Whitty told the Inquiry:

" Initially, SAGE had thought it would be possible to achieve control of Covid-19 (meaning R below 1) without school closures, but as the data on force of transmission emerged the collective view of SAGE changed."²⁶⁷²⁶⁷ INQ000251645_0095 para 7.108

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¶4.114. A COBR meeting was convened at 16:00 to consider SAGE's advice on schools.²⁶⁸²⁶⁸ INQ000056211 At this meeting, Professor Vallance explained that London was approximately two to three weeks away from intensive care units being full and that, even if social distancing restrictions were increased, London remained at risk of exceeding this capacity.²⁶⁹²⁶⁹ INQ000056211_0005 paras 2-3 He told COBR that the advisory social distancing restrictions that had been put in place on 16 March 2020 had not led to "changes … at the rate needed" and that:

" the UK would be in a vulnerable position if it watched and waited for a further two weeks before implementing any additional social distancing measures. In order of the most to least effective, the following additional measures could be considered: closure of schools and colleges, closure of leisure facilities, closure of indoor workplaces and closure of non-essential retail."²⁷⁰²⁷⁰ INQ000056211_0005 para 4

¶Professor Vallance stated that modelling suggested school closures could potentially reduce Covid-19 cases by 10% to 15% and below the threshold for breaching intensive care unit capacity.²⁷¹²⁷¹ INQ000056211_0005 para 3

¶4.115. COBR agreed to "bring forward the Easter holidays for all schools in England, simultaneously with Northern Ireland and in line with Scotland and Wales" and that a "minimal school service" would be made available for the children of key workers and for vulnerable children.²⁷²²⁷² INQ000056211_0007 Decision 1 It also agreed that exams in England scheduled for May and June 2020 were to be cancelled.²⁷³²⁷³ INQ000056211_0007 Decision 3 The UK government announced that day, 18 March 2020, that all schools, colleges and early years units in England would be closed from 20 March "until further notice", although they would remain open for children of key workers and for vulnerable children.²⁷⁴²⁷⁴ 'Schools, colleges and early years settings to close', Department for Education and Gavin Williamson, 18 March 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/schools-colleges-and-early-years-settings-to-close; INQ000052716_0002)

¶4.116. The closure of schools had not been seriously contemplated in Northern Ireland prior to 12 March 2020, when the Republic of Ireland announced a package of measures that included the closure of schools, colleges and childcare facilities.²⁷⁵²⁷⁵ INQ000083097_0002 The following day, Michelle O'Neill MLA, deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from January 2020 to February 2022, called for the immediate closure of schools.²⁷⁶²⁷⁶ INQ000289859; 'Michelle O'Neill calls for the immediate closure of schools and universities', Sinn Féin, 13 March 2020 (https://sinnfein.ie/news/michelle-oneill-calls-for-the-immediate-closure-of-schools-and-universities; INQ000226013); 'O'Neill calls for an all-island approach to deal with Coronavirus', Sinn Féin, 14 March 2020 (https://sinnfein.ie/news/oneill-calls-for-an-all-island- approach-to-deal-with-coronavirus; INQ000226013); 'Common sense approach needed to combat spread of COVID-19 – Michelle O'Neill', Sinn Féin, 16 March 2020 (https://sinnfein.ie/news/common-sense-approach-needed-to-combat-spread-of-covid-19-michelle- oneill; INQ000226013); see also Michelle O'Neill 14 May 2024 81/4-25, 82/1-15Show full note At the Northern Ireland Executive Committee on 16 March, two separate votes on the issue divided along political lines.²⁷⁷²⁷⁷ INQ000065689_0037; INQ000437470_0007 para 25 The Executive Committee ultimately decided to close schools as and when Professor McBride advised it.²⁷⁸²⁷⁸ INQ000048447_0006 para 19 When it then became apparent that the UK government would close schools, according to Sir David Sterling, Professor McBride advised that "we should follow suit".²⁷⁹²⁷⁹ David Sterling 1 May 2024 165/4-14 At the time, the Northern Ireland Office noted "cracks beginning to emerge in NIE [Northern Ireland Executive], with SF [Sinn Féin] wanting to follow Irish government particularly re school closures".²⁸⁰²⁸⁰ INQ000083098_0003

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¶4.117. Some witnesses questioned whether SPI-M-O models might have overestimated the impact of schools on the transmission of Covid-19.²⁸¹²⁸¹ INQ000352697_0003; INQ000250231_0015, 0034 paras 81, 187; INQ000249526_0069 para 219(a) Professor Whitty told the Inquiry: "[T]here was so much uncertainty that school closures were the prudent approach."²⁸²²⁸² INQ000251645_0172 para 8.139 According to Sir Gavin Williamson, the initial decision to close schools in England (as announced on 18 March 2020), was borne out of "quite a discombobulating sea change over a 24-hour period", in which the focus shifted from keeping schools open to closing schools for most children.²⁸³²⁸³ INQ000268013_0014 para 4.5.6 However, no government in the UK was adequately prepared for the sudden and enormous task of educating most children in their homes or for meeting the challenges and risks this presented. None had envisaged or prepared for the potential, complex ramifications of school closures on children's lives. In Module 8: Children and young people, the Inquiry is considering the merits of the decisions to close schools to most children and the justification for this momentous step, as well as the range of impacts affecting children across society.

¶Dashboard 05:18 March 2020 Estimated population infected: 65,000–75,000 (awaiting SAGE confirmation) Total confirmed cases UK: 2,626 (2,182 in England, 227 in Scotland, 149 in Wales and 68 in Northern Ireland) Deaths: 103 (99 in England, 2 in Scotland, 2 in Wales and 0 in Northern Ireland) Number of tests carried out: 46,842 Source: INQ000056058_0003