19 and 20 March: Additional restrictions

¶4.118. On the evening of 18 March 2020, the situation in England remained on a knife edge. As Dr Warner pointed out to Professor Vallance and Cabinet Office officials that evening:

¶" [B]y the time the data shows we haven't implemented strict enough measures it will be too late to stop an Italy like situation."²⁸⁴²⁸⁴ INQ000195890_0001

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¶4.119. Sir Simon Stevens and Mr Johnson met on 18 March 2020 to discuss NHS England resilience.²⁸⁵²⁸⁵ INQ000280647_0011-0012 para 32; INQ000056051 The following day, COVID-19 Hospital Discharge Service Requirements was published in England, which stated that "hospitals must discharge all patients as soon as they are clinically safe to do so" and that this was "expected to free up at least 15,000 beds by … 27th March".²⁸⁶²⁸⁶ COVID-19 Hospital Discharge Service Requirements, Department of Health and Social Care, 19 March 2020, p3, paras 1.3-1.4 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-hospital-discharge-service-requirements; INQ000049702) It explained that patients being discharged whose needs were too great to return home would be discharged to a care home.²⁸⁷²⁸⁷ COVID-19 Hospital Discharge Service Requirements, Department of Health and Social Care, 19 March 2020, p7, para 2.5 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-hospital-discharge-service-requirements; INQ000049702)

¶4.120. The Coronavirus Bill had its first reading in the House of Commons on 19 March 2020.²⁸⁸²⁸⁸ INQ000232194_0074-0075 para 314. This is considered further in Chapter 13: Legislation and enforcement, in Volume II.

¶4.121. Work continued in the UK government on a support pack for people who would be required to shield. At a meeting of the Covid-19 Strategy Ministerial Group on the morning of 19 March 2020, it was agreed that the Department of Health and Social Care and Professor Whitty should "finalise urgently today the categories of 'clinically high risk' people" who would be asked to shield.²⁸⁹²⁸⁹ INQ000056055 Mr Johnson confirmed that a decision on shielding should be delayed until the following day.²⁹⁰²⁹⁰ INQ000056262_0004; INQ000056055

¶4.122. The meeting also discussed the possibility of further restrictions in London.²⁹¹²⁹¹ INQ000056062 Professor Vallance explained that "at the current rate of growth current ICU capacity would be reached in two to three weeks' time":

" [However,] the impact of measures on health outcomes would not be seen for two to three weeks. There was therefore an exact congruence between the point when the ICU capacity would be reached and when the government would know the effect of the current measures. A decision could not, therefore, be delayed."²⁹²²⁹² INQ000056262_0005

¶Professor Vallance advised that, while school closures would help reduce R to 1, a "25% reduction in workplaces and a 75% reduction in face to face contact was needed to support that reduction".²⁹³²⁹³ INQ000056262_0005 Nonetheless, he explained:

" [T]here was a lack of data on whether the UK was close to the 75% reduction … The data was inadequate, and unlikely to improve. If there was a perceived lack of compliance then the government would need to increase measures, in order of importance this would mean closing: leisure … non-essential retail; and workplaces."²⁹⁴²⁹⁴ INQ000056262_0005

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¶4.123. Mr Johnson acknowledged there was "an ongoing failure of compliance" and "the government must act that day".²⁹⁵²⁹⁵ INQ000056262_0006 He asked for a list to be drawn up of non-essential shops for closure and said a decision should be taken on whether this would apply only in London or across the UK.²⁹⁶²⁹⁶ INQ000056262_0006

¶4.124. Mr Johnson met Mr Khan later that day at about 13:30.²⁹⁷²⁹⁷ INQ000226185_0069 It was agreed that they would "jointly announce at 5pm today that we would be saying that entertainment/ hospitality and non-essential retail 'must' close from Friday [20 March] for two weeks" in London.²⁹⁸²⁹⁸ INQ000146594

¶4.125. Mr Johnson, Rishi Sunak MP (Chancellor of the Exchequer from February 2020 to July 2022), Professor Whitty, officials and advisers met at about 15:00 to discuss the further restrictions that had been considered that morning.²⁹⁹²⁹⁹ INQ000226185_0069 Mr Cummings sent Mr Cain a WhatsApp message from this meeting stating: "Get in here he's melting down. Rishi says bond markets may not fund our debt."³⁰⁰³⁰⁰ INQ000267920 Following this discussion, Mr Johnson decided not to proceed with London-specific measures at that time.³⁰¹³⁰¹ INQ000215035_0018-0019 para 74

¶4.126. Mr Khan told the Inquiry that the joint press conference was cancelled at short notice with a view to further discussions taking place at COBR the following day, in light of concerns about the impact on financial markets.³⁰²³⁰² INQ000221436_0021 para 92

¶4.127. An email that evening from a private secretary to the Prime Minister noted that the decision on London measures would be taken the following day and Mr Johnson "remained minded" to take these steps, but was keen for the announcement to be "made alongside further measures to support the economy, business and employees".³⁰³³⁰³ INQ000146593 The Inquiry notes that the decision as to whether London should be locked down was considered more carefully and at greater length than the decision of 18 March 2020 to close schools.

¶4.128. At the 10 Downing Street press conference on 19 March 2020, Mr Johnson said that "we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks" if there was collective action.³⁰⁴³⁰⁴ 'PM: We can "turn the tide" on coronavirus crisis', BBC News, 19 March 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51966721; INQ000573866) Professor Whitty told the Inquiry that he thought that "this statement was very optimistic if it was taken to mean the path of the pandemic as a whole rather than a single wave".³⁰⁵³⁰⁵ INQ000251645_0096 para 7.111

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¶4.129. That same day, the Department of Health (Northern Ireland) published the Health and Social Care (NI) Summary Covid-19 Plan for the Period Mid-March to Mid-April 2020.³⁰⁶³⁰⁶ Health and Social Care (NI) Summary Covid-19 Plan for the Period Mid-March to Mid-April 2020, Department of Health (Northern Ireland), 19 March 2020 (https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/health-and-social-care-ni-summary-covid-19-plan-period-mid- march-mid-april-2020; INQ000103714) The plan summarised the key actions to be taken by Health and Social Care (Northern Ireland) to ensure that there was sufficient capacity within the system to meet the expected increase in demand from patients contracting Covid-19 during this period. By this time, it had been identified that the normal capacity of 88 critical care beds in Northern Ireland "could be rapidly increased by a further 38 beds" by repurposing other facilities and opening additional beds.³⁰⁷³⁰⁷ Health and Social Care (NI) Summary Covid-19 Plan for the Period Mid-March to Mid-April 2020, Department of Health (Northern Ireland), 19 March 2020, p7 (https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/health-and-social-care-ni-summary-covid-19-plan-period-mid- march-mid-april-2020; INQ000103714) Capacity had been identified in designated wards in hospitals in Northern Ireland to treat roughly 280 adult inpatients with Covid-19.³⁰⁸³⁰⁸ Health and Social Care (NI) Summary Covid-19 Plan for the Period Mid-March to Mid-April 2020, Department of Health (Northern Ireland), 19 March 2020, p6 (https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/health-and-social-care-ni-summary-covid-19-plan-period-mid- march-mid-april-2020; INQ000103714) In anticipation of numbers increasing thereafter, Health and Social Care (Northern Ireland) trusts began to assess steps that could be needed to convert additional wards into areas to treat patients diagnosed with Covid-19.³⁰⁹³⁰⁹ Health and Social Care (NI) Summary Covid-19 Plan for the Period Mid-March to Mid-April 2020, Department of Health (Northern Ireland), 19 March 2020, p6 (https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/health-and-social-care-ni-summary-covid-19-plan-period-mid- march-mid-april-2020; INQ000103714)

¶4.130. On 19 March 2020, the Northern Ireland Executive Committee considered, for the first time, the application of the reasonable worst-case scenario to Northern Ireland. Setting out what this might mean in terms of the numbers of people who might die (without the application of interventions), Robin Swann MLA (Minister of Health for Northern Ireland from January 2020 to October 2022 and from February to May 2024) told his Executive colleagues that the estimate was of 9,500 deaths – with 32,000 new cases per day – and commented that these were "scary numbers".³¹⁰³¹⁰ INQ000065737_0008 While the Department of Health (Northern Ireland) had previously set out the principles underlying the reasonable worst-case scenario, this had not been translated into Northern Ireland-specific figures.³¹¹³¹¹ INQ000425539_0014-0016 Mr Swann told the Inquiry that he could not explain:

" why it wasn't in a previous briefing as to an exact number that was there. We worked out the reasonable worst-case scenarios and other scenarios were put out and presented as well, but I think it was at that point that that clarification of that … number that really brought things into a very sharp focus."³¹²³¹² Robin Swann 13 May 2024 135/ 3-9

¶However, he had checked and the calculation had not been done prior to

¶19 March.³¹³³¹³ Robin Swann 13 May 2024 134/22-25 Irrespective of who was best placed to perform this basic calculation, that it was not performed at all prior to 19 March demonstrates how very late it was that Northern Ireland ministers grasped the gravity of the situation they faced.

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¶Dashboard 06:19 March 2020 Estimated population infected: 13,500 Total confirmed cases UK: 3,269 (2,756 in England, 266 in Scotland, 170 in Wales and 77 in Northern Ireland) Deaths: 144 (135 in England, 6 in Scotland, 2 in Wales and 1 in Northern Ireland) Number of tests carried out: 46,842 Source: INQ000055920_0002

¶4.131. On 20 March 2020, SPI-M-O provided a consensus statement that concluded that doubling time based on intensive care cases was three to five days.³¹⁴³¹⁴ INQ000071111_0001 para 1 This was significantly shorter than the five to seven days that SAGE had estimated on 18 March.³¹⁵³¹⁵ INQ000075778_0002 para 12 It estimated that R was higher than had previously been thought and could be higher than 3.³¹⁶³¹⁶ INQ000071111_0001 para 5 SPI-M-O advised that, if additional measures were not put in place, intensive care unit capacity would be likely to also be breached outside London.³¹⁷³¹⁷ INQ000071111_0001 para 3

¶4.132. That day, the Covid-19 Strategy Ministerial Group again considered whether further restrictions should be applied to London only or across the UK.³¹⁸³¹⁸ INQ000056265_0004 Mr Johnson said that a decision needed to be made that day "to strengthen advice on social distancing" and on whether:

" measures to close pubs, bars and restaurants needed to be applied to the whole of the UK or London only … [and] what premises needed to close, including whether to close other shops".³¹⁹³¹⁹ INQ000056265_0004

¶Mr Johnson described his "instinct" during this discussion as being:

" that it made no sense to impose measures on London alone. The capital is integrally connected with the rest of the South East, and for epidemiological purposes it seemed highly unlikely, to me, that it could be insulated from the rest of the Home Counties."³²⁰³²⁰ INQ000255836_0065 para 252

¶4.133. Mr Johnson instructed the Cabinet Secretariat to provide him with final advice on further restrictions to reduce social gatherings and whether these restrictions should be applied in London or more broadly, so that he could take a decision on this shortly.³²¹³²¹ INQ000056265_0005; INQ000056066 He explained that they should prepare to convene COBR (should he decide to ask for businesses to close) and that they should consider inviting the devolved administrations and the Mayor of London, depending on the geographical extent of further restrictions.³²²³²² INQ000056265_0005; INQ000056066 Shielding was again discussed, but it was decided that no shielding announcement should take place until a call centre and support package was in place, which should be achieved as soon as possible.³²³³²³ INQ000056265_0005-0007; INQ000056066_0001-0002 Mr Johnson also asked Mr Hancock to lead work on the preparation of a "three month battle plan to tackle the virus" covering testing, technology, data gathering and interventions to be presented to him on 22 March 2020.³²⁴³²⁴ INQ000056265_0007-0008; INQ000056066

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¶4.134. Mr Gove chaired the meeting of COBR convened at 16:00 on 20 March 2020.³²⁵³²⁵ INQ000056212 Mr Johnson told the Inquiry that he did not attend this meeting as he was about to do the press conference agreed earlier.³²⁶³²⁶ INQ000255836_0066 para 254 Prior to the COBR meeting, there was consideration as to whether the devolved administrations should be invited.³²⁷³²⁷ INQ000361417_0003 Ultimately, it was attended (via video conference) by Ms Sturgeon and Arlene Foster MLA (later Baroness Foster of Aghadrumsee), First Minister of Northern Ireland from January 2016 to January 2017 and from January 2020 to June 2021, as well as by Mr Drakeford (whose name is not recorded in the minutes).³²⁸³²⁸ INQ000056212; INQ000273747_0016-0017 para 48 Professor Whitty explained that, as SAGE advised on 18 March 2020, the timescale for ascertaining evidence of the effectiveness of the restrictions previously implemented was approximately two to three weeks, although this was also the period within which the effects of the current outbreak would be felt significantly in intensive care units across the UK.³²⁹³²⁹ INQ000056212_0004 para 1

¶4.135. COBR considered a paper containing advice on further restrictions.³³⁰³³⁰ INQ000106263 It explained that, while it was "too early to judge compliance properly" with the restrictions already in place, early data were mixed, which meant that further measures might be necessary to increase compliance.³³¹³³¹ INQ000106263_0001 para 2 The closure of certain businesses was proposed, including those the public had been advised on 16 March 2020 to avoid.³³²³³² INQ000106263_0002 para 5 Either businesses could be asked to close or this could be required by law.³³³³³³ INQ000106263_0003 para 11a The aim was to reduce social distancing by the "75 per cent" necessary to bring demand within the capacity of intensive care units.³³⁴³³⁴ INQ000056212_0004 para 2 The paper advised that the new restrictions should apply across the UK.³³⁵³³⁵ INQ000106263_0002 para 4

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¶4.136. Professor Vallance explained that the objective of restrictions remained:

" to achieve a 75% reduction in household contacts, but it was now considered necessary to expand the range of interventions to achieve it".³³⁶³³⁶ INQ000238826_0095-0096 para 293

¶Mr Johnson stated that these further restrictions:

" were needed because there had not been full compliance with the previously announced advice … these enhanced measures would serve to enforce [social distancing]".³³⁷³³⁷ INQ000056212_0005-0006 para 6

¶4.137. COBR agreed that the businesses the public had been advised to avoid on 16 March 2020, including pubs, restaurants, cafes, cinemas, theatres and certain other places of leisure, would be required to close across the UK that night.³³⁸³³⁸ INQ000056212_0007 Decision 1 It did so without the benefit of data on the impact on R of the advisory restrictions it had implemented on 16 March. Mr Gove explained that COBR could not wait to see compliance data as "the virus was spreading exponentially and the risk was that the NHS would be overwhelmed".³³⁹³³⁹ Michael Gove 28 November 2023 77/16-78/2 Decision-makers in the UK government, by waiting so long to implement the initial, more limited restrictions, had left themselves no time to allow for a two to three week period for the data concerning the impact of those measures to emerge. They had forced their own hand and the devolved administrations followed suit.

¶4.138. On the evening of 20 March 2020, Mr Johnson announced the immediate closure of pubs, cafes, restaurants and other places of leisure in England.³⁴⁰³⁴⁰ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 20 March 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 20 March 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-20-march-2020; INQ000086757) Similar announcements about the closure of these businesses were made in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.³⁴¹³⁴¹ INQ000339033_0076 para 202; 'Statement by First Minister on additional measures announced by Prime Minister', Welsh Government, 20 March 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/statement-first-minister-additional-measures-announced-prime-minister; INQ000350705); 'Coronavirus: Closure of social venues will lower death toll', BBC News, 20 March 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51972262; INQ000605481)Show full note Laws requiring their closure, made under public health legislation, came into force the following day in England and Wales.³⁴²³⁴² The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Business Closure) (England) Regulations 2020 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/327/ contents); The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Business Closure) (Wales) Regulations 2020 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2020/326/contents/made) These closures remained advisory in Northern Ireland and Scotland as the Coronavirus Bill, which created legal powers for use in those nations, had not yet been passed.³⁴³³⁴³ INQ000056212_0007 Decision 2 Events had outpaced the Bill.

¶4.139. The intention of the restrictions implemented so far was to limit social contact, particularly among people aged over 70 or at particular risk from the virus. However, when Mr Johnson announced these further restrictions at the press conference, he immediately undermined the public health message of protecting those aged over weekend for Mother's Day.³⁴⁴³⁴⁴ 'How coronavirus advice from Boris Johnson has changed', The Guardian, 23 March 2020 (https://www.theguardian.com/ world/2020/mar/23/how-coronavirus-advice-from-boris-johnson-has-changed; INQ000273360_0002) If, by his comments, Mr Johnson meant that he would see his mother remotely, he failed to say so at the press conference, leaving the impression that he would be seeing her in person.

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¶70 and the most vulnerable by stating that he hoped "to get to see" his mother that

¶Dashboard 07:20 March 2020 Estimated population infected: 177,000 Total confirmed cases UK: 3,983 (3,384 in England, 322 in Scotland, 191 in Wales and 86 in Northern Ireland) Deaths: 177 (167 in England, 6 in Scotland, 3 in Wales and 1 in Northern Ireland) Number of tests carried out: 55,092 Source: INQ000056076_0002 (The estimate of population infected reflected a change of estimate method to number of deaths x 1,000.)