Chapter 7: Further lockdowns (December 2020 to April 2021)

Introduction

¶7.1. In December 2020, the first vaccine was approved in the UK and the subsequent rollout of vaccines began in all four nations. This was rightly described as "a decisive turning point in the battle against the virus".¹¹ 'Landmark moment as first NHS patient receives COVID-19 vaccination', NHS England, 8 December 2020 (https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/12/landmark-moment-as-first-nhs-patient-receives-covid-19-vaccination; INQ000237370) The decisions taken by the UK government and devolved administrations for the remainder of the pandemic must be viewed in this context.

¶7.2. The arrival of a vaccine coincided with a rapid rise in infections in south-east England. This was driven by a new variant of Covid-19 – known as Alpha – which emerged in Kent during the autumn of 2020. As explained by Professor Sir Christopher Whitty, Chief Medical Officer for England from October 2019, "all viruses mutate over time".²² INQ000248853_0086 para 5.239 A mutation with "significant characteristics" such as increased transmissibility or severity will be designated as a "Variant of Concern".³³ INQ000248853_0086 paras 5.239-5.240 The Alpha variant was designated by the World Health Organization as a variant of concern on 18 December 2020. On the same day, the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) advised that the Alpha variant was 71% more transmissible than the original strain and that it increased the reproduction number (R) by between 0.39 and 0.93.⁴⁴ INQ000128575_0002

¶7.3. This chapter considers the key events from early December 2020 to the end of April 2021, including the peak in early January 2021 of the 'second wave' of Covid-19, in light of these two developments. It will consider whether earlier lessons were learned sufficiently well by the four governments of the UK. These lessons included the need to react swiftly and decisively to rising infection rates, to protect the vulnerable and those 'at risk' from both the effects of the virus and the restrictions, and the need for governments to work effectively together.

December 2020 to early January 2021

¶7.4. The development of a vaccine was a remarkable achievement. The UK was the first country in the world to approve a vaccine and commence a vaccination programme. On 2 December 2020, temporary authorisation was granted by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.⁵⁵ 'COVID-19 vaccine authorised by medicines regulator', Department of Health and Social Care, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and Alok Sharma, 2 December 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-vaccine-authorised-by-medicines-regulator; INQ000479077) This was announced by Boris Johnson MP, Prime Minister from July 2019 to September 2022, as the second lockdown in England lifted. Rollout commenced on 8 December 2020, with the first NHS England patient, a 90 year old, vaccinated in accordance with advice on prioritisation from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation.⁶⁶ 'Landmark moment as first NHS patient receives COVID-19 vaccination', NHS England, 8 December 2020 (https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/12/landmark-moment-as-first-nhs-patient-receives-covid-19-vaccination; INQ000237370) The Scottish Government announced that the first vaccinations against Covid-19 had been given in Scotland to those who would be carrying out the vaccination programme.⁷⁷ 'First COVID-19 vaccinations in Scotland take place', Scottish Government, 8 December 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/news/first-covid-19-vaccinations-in-scotland-take-place; INQ000369703) Both the Welsh Government and the Department of Health (Northern Ireland) adopted the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation prioritisation structure, beginning with care home residents and staff.⁸⁸ 'Written Statement: COVID-19 vaccine launch in Wales', Vaughan Gething, Minister for Health and Social Services, Welsh Government, 8 December 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/written-statement-covid-19-vaccine-launch-wales; INQ000321010); INQ000083199_0002 Authorisation for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine followed swiftly on 30 December 2020 and for the Moderna vaccine on 8 January 2021. Vaccines and therapeutics are explored in detail in Module 4: Vaccines and therapeutics.

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¶7.5. However, it would take a considerable amount of time for the vaccine rollout to begin to have a significant effect on transmission and on mortality rates. With infections still rising, trying to stop the spread of the disease remained imperative.

¶7.6. By 1 December 2020, R had risen to 1, and might have been as high as 1.1 in Northern Ireland. A modelling paper from the Department of Health (Northern Ireland) noted that this likely reflected behaviours and interactions in the preceding week, when cafes and close-contact services had been open.⁹⁹ INQ000276549_0001 The number of hospital inpatients had fallen more slowly than admissions and remained at a relatively high level. The number of Covid-19-positive intensive care unit patients in Northern Ireland stood at 38.¹⁰¹⁰ INQ000276549_0001 There remained a risk that hospitals would come under severe pressure in the period after Christmas when staff availability would normally be lower.¹¹¹¹ INQ000276552_0002

¶7.7. The same day, Michelle O'Neill MLA, deputy First Minister from January 2020 to February 2022, confirmed that the "Strategic Objective is R below 1 and protect the Health Service".¹²¹² INQ000304288_0002-0003 Professor (later Sir) Michael McBride, Chief Medical Officer for Northern Ireland from September 2006, advised:

¶" [F]rom a narrow health perspective the way to maintain R being low is to

maintain all current restrictions. Series of policy choices for the Executive relaxations which they can then advise on. Clear priority in relation to schools which causes difficulties in keeping both them and hospitality open."¹³¹³ INQ000305410_0001; INQ000065642_0020

¶As subsequent events were to demonstrate, this did not translate into a collective ministerial aim.

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¶7.8. On 1 December 2020, the Scottish Cabinet considered rising cases in both Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire. It had been recommended that these areas be put into Level 3 of Scotland's Covid-19 management system, which would mean that no non-essential travel would be allowed out of that area and all leisure and entertainment venues would be closed.¹⁴¹⁴ INQ000214798_0003 para 12 The ultimate decision as to whether the level should be changed was delegated to Nicola Sturgeon MSP, First Minister of Scotland from November 2014 to March 2023.

¶7.9. At the conclusion of the second lockdown on 2 December 2020, England returned to a three-tier system of local restrictions. Mr Johnson told the Cabinet that the tiers "would be reviewed after 14 days with areas being moved into a lower tier if the numbers justified that".¹⁵¹⁵ INQ000089081_0001 The first review was to take place on 16 December 2020, with Mr Johnson expressing optimism tempered by circumspection that, by then, there might be the potential to move areas to lower tiers.¹⁶¹⁶ INQ000089081_0001 However, by 4 December 2020, Professor Sir Patrick Vallance (later Lord Vallance of Balham), Government Chief Scientific Adviser from April 2018 to March 2023, recorded in his evening notes that Mr Johnson reached the conclusion that "most people" were "going to be moved up a Tier in January" 2021.¹⁷¹⁷ INQ000273901_0300 The weekend of 5 to 6 December saw the first Saturday and Sunday of Christmas shopping after the easing of the second lockdown. Scenes of crowds were reported across the national media. These scenes were to be repeated the following weekend, causing significant concern.¹⁸¹⁸ 'Huge crowds of Christmas shoppers fill UK cities despite virus fears', Metro, 12 December 2020 (https://metro.co.uk/2020/12/12/ huge-crowds-of-christmas-shoppers-fill-uk-cities-despite-virus-fears-13742852; INQ000625229); 'COVID-19: Christmas shoppers flood high streets in return after lockdown', Sky News, 5 December 2020 (https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-christmas-shoppers- flood-high-streets-in-return-after-lockdown-12152120; INQ000625228)Show full note

¶7.10. On 2 December 2020, the Welsh Cabinet agreed to prohibit travel to and from areas in Tier 3 in England and Level 3 and above in Scotland and to advise against the same for Tier 2 and Level 2.¹⁹¹⁹ INQ000048788_0003-0004 Travel was also prohibited to and from Northern Ireland, which had imposed a nationwide 'circuit breaker' (the stringent restrictions imposed for two weeks from 27 November 2020).²⁰²⁰ See Part 3 of The Health Protection (Coronavirus Restrictions) (No. 4) (Wales) Regulations 2020 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2020/1219/contents/made) as updated on 4 December 2020.

¶7.11. By the same date in Wales, positive test results for Covid-19 and the number of people both in hospital and in intensive care with Covid-19 were above what the Welsh Government called the "red circuit breaker".²¹²¹ INQ000066405_0002 By this, it meant headline indicators covering key information, including transmission of the virus and NHS capacity, with red representing a breach.²²²² INQ000066405_0002 A few days later, the Welsh Cabinet noted: "Wales was the only part of the UK where cases of Covid-19 were increasing."²³²³ INQ000129910_0008 Public Health Wales recommended that "urgent additional action before Christmas is required".²⁴²⁴ INQ000056303_0001-0002 It also advised that additional measures should be introduced similar to those implemented during the 'firebreak' (the stringent restrictions imposed in Wales for 17 days from 23 October 2020).²⁵²⁵ INQ000056303_0001-0002

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¶7.12. In an Executive Paper on 3 December 2020, Arlene Foster MLA (later Baroness Foster of Aghadrumsee), First Minister of Northern Ireland from January 2016 to January 2017 and from January 2020 to June 2021, and Ms O'Neill set out proposals for arrangements that might be made once the circuit breaker restrictions ended on 10 December.²⁶²⁶ INQ000065642 They also tabled a further paper on Christmas 'bubbling' arrangements, which noted that a decision had been made that up to three houses could form a Christmas 'bubble' over the period from 23 to 27 December 2020. An outstanding key issue to be considered was whether existing bubbles counted as part of a household.²⁷²⁷ INQ000208784_0001 paras 1-2 Both papers, together with one from the Department for the Economy (Northern Ireland) on the economic implications of the restrictions, were considered at the Executive meeting on 3 December. Ministers were also provided with a paper on R, which estimated that it was around 1.²⁸²⁸ INQ000276549_0001 Professor McBride and Professor Ian Young (Chief Scientific Adviser to the Department of Health (Northern Ireland) from November 2015) advised that, if the Executive Committee wanted (as per its policy position) to keep R below 1, there should be no relaxation of the restrictions.²⁹²⁹ INQ000065642_0008-0009

¶7.13. Despite that advice, a package of measures to take effect at the end of the two-week circuit breaker restrictions was agreed. This included the reopening of shops, hairdressers, restaurants, places of worship and hotels (among others).³⁰³⁰ INQ000048501_0004, 0007-0008 para 16(iv) The paper estimated that infection rates would begin to rise again before Christmas. The decision was made to allow up to three households to form one bubble over Christmas (from 23 to 27 December 2020).³¹³¹ 'Ministers outline new Covid-19 measures', The Executive Office, 4 December 2020 (https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/news/ministers-outline-new-covid-19-measures; INQ000276553)

¶7.14. By 8 December 2020, it was understood that the two weeks of circuit breaker restrictions had not had the impact that had been hoped for. Consistent with Professor Young's previous warning that "mid-December could be the 'big risk period'", Professor McBride advised the First Minister and deputy First Minister that he was "most concerned now" – the position was "fragile" and that should inform the messaging.³²³² INQ000065956_0008; Ian Young 7 May 2024 195/11-21; INQ000286272_0001; see also Ian Young 7 May 2024 194/6-9 Professor Young indicated that R was expected to move to 1.4 to 1.8 for two weeks.³³³³ INQ000286272_0002 The Executive Committee nonetheless decided to ease restrictions in the two weeks leading up to Christmas. Acknowledging a desire to have as "normal a Christmas as possible", Robin Swann MLA, Minister of Health for Northern Ireland from January 2020 to October 2022 and from February to May 2024, confirmed that the messaging highlighted that restrictions before Christmas would mean a greater chance of Christmas gatherings.³⁴³⁴ INQ000452486_0019 para 64 Similarly, Baroness Foster told the Inquiry that she had considered it important to "protect" Christmas to give people hope and something to look forward to.³⁵³⁵ INQ000418976_0039-0040 para 127

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¶7.15. In Wales, on 7 December 2020, Vaughan Gething MS (Minister for Health and Social Services in the Welsh Government from May 2016 to May 2021) made an entry in a notebook that Dr (later Sir) Frank Atherton (Chief Medical Officer for Wales from August 2016) had advised him and Mark Drakeford MS (First Minister of Wales from December 2018 to March 2024) that the "position is dire; visibly worse than the other UK nations".³⁶³⁶ INQ000539016_0124 On 8 December 2020, Dr Atherton advised the Welsh Government to "consider the need to adopt further national measures", as recommended by Public Health Wales.³⁷³⁷ INQ000048917_0001 The following day marked the highest number of confirmed Covid-19 patients in hospitals in Wales on record.³⁸³⁸ INQ000350062

¶7.16. Estimates from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) using data up to 8 December 2020 suggested that there were between 34,000 and 50,000 new infections per day in England.³⁹³⁹ INQ000120576_0002 para 12 Over 2,000 new infections were reported in Wales on 8 December and the infection rate per 100,000 people in Wales was significantly higher than in both Scotland and England.⁴⁰⁴⁰ INQ000048793_0002 para 1.4 The number of Covid-19 patients in hospital beds in Wales was "more than 500 higher than the peak of 1398 experienced in the first wave".⁴¹⁴¹ INQ000350062

¶7.17. At the outset of a discussion in the UK Cabinet on 8 December 2020, Mr Johnson also noted that "the numbers, especially in London, were going in the wrong direction".⁴²⁴² INQ000088967_0005 Professor Whitty advised Cabinet that prevalence remained high, stating:

¶" Common sense and scientific modelling showed that the second wave of coronavirus in the UK was not yet over."⁴³⁴³ INQ000251645_0152-0153 para 8.85

¶He reiterated that science would only rescue the "nation from the hole it was in by the spring, but not before then".⁴⁴⁴⁴ INQ000251645_0152-0153 para 8.85

¶7.18. On the same day, following a Scottish Cabinet discussion, it was announced that from 11 December 2020 the 11 areas in Scotland under Level 4 restrictions would be moved down to Level 3.⁴⁵⁴⁵ INQ000214799; 'Scotland's toughest Covid restrictions to be eased', BBC News, 8 December 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55230778; INQ000357854) On 10 December 2020, although the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) noted that there was a lag in the data, it stated:

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¶" The latest estimate of R for the UK is 0.9 to 1.0 and 0.8 to 1.0 for England …

Estimates of R for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are 0.7 to 0.9, 0.9 to 1.2 and 0.8 to 1.1, respectively. SPI-M is not confident that R is less than 1 in Wales, or in some regions of England. There is a marked increase in the rate of infection for those aged 12-16 in London."⁴⁶⁴⁶ INQ000120576_0001-0002 paras 1-2; see also paras 8-9, 11

¶There had been "small increases in R" in some regions of England, including the East, the Midlands and the south-west.⁴⁷⁴⁷ INQ000120576_0001 para 9 SAGE also reiterated that, where infection rates were increasing:

¶" As previously noted, evidence shows that the earlier and more rapidly

interventions are put in place, and the more stringent they are, the faster the observed reduction in incidence and prevalence."⁴⁸⁴⁸ INQ000120576_0001 para 2

¶7.19. That same day, Covid-19 infection rates in Wales exceeded 370 in every 100,000 people.⁴⁹⁴⁹ INQ000350065 On the advice of Dr Atherton, Mr Drakeford and Kirsty Williams MS, Minister for Education in the Welsh Government from May 2016 to May 2021, jointly decided to move secondary schools and colleges to online learning from 14 December 2020.⁵⁰⁵⁰ INQ000362237_0077-0078 paras 266-268; INQ000350063 The Welsh Government had also decided the previous day to introduce four alert levels which would dictate the level of restrictions in Wales.⁵¹⁵¹ INQ000048793 There were clear warnings from the Chief Medical Officer for Wales and Public Health Wales about the need for urgent action. However, the Welsh Cabinet decided that Wales should only enter Level 4 restrictions from 28 December if transmission rates had not improved.⁵²⁵² INQ000048794

The identification of the Alpha variant

¶7.20. On the evening of 10 December 2020, Public Health England alerted Professor Whitty and Professor (later Sir) Jonathan Van-Tam, Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England from October 2017 to March 2022, to a "substantial genomic cluster of a variant of SARS-CoV-2" in Kent and north-east London.⁵³⁵³ INQ000236513_0001; INQ000153472 The following day, NERVTAG advised that the emergence of this new variant was a "matter for concern".⁵⁴⁵⁴ INQ000120390_0002 If it were more transmissible than the original variant, then controlling the epidemic would be much harder. There was also the possibility of reinfection, that the new variant would not be detected by diagnostic tests or that it would escape the vaccine.⁵⁵⁵⁵ INQ000120390_0006 para 4.12 Professor Neil Ferguson, Mathematical Epidemiologist at Imperial College London, warned Professor Vallance that the new variant was "potentially rather worrying".⁵⁶⁵⁶ INQ000229912_0002

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¶7.21. The Scottish Government published COVID-19: Framework for Decision Making – Assessing the Four Harms of the Crisis on 11 December 2020.⁵⁷⁵⁷ COVID-19: Framework for Decision Making – Assessing the Four Harms of the Crisis, Scottish Government, 11 December 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/covid-19-framework-decision-making-assessing-four-harms-crisis/documents; INQ000131028); see also Chapter 5: Exit from lockdown This set out the four harms and the process for assessment used to establish when coronavirus restrictions could be safely lifted after lockdown and the scientific evidence underpinning the decisions.

¶7.22. On 11 December 2020, Public Health Wales reiterated its 7 December advice to the Chief Medical Officer for Wales recommending urgent additional action before Christmas.⁵⁸⁵⁸ INQ000056302_0001-0002 para 3 Its estimate was that the:

" current weekly incidence in the community is around 400 per 100,000 … This compares to 153 per 100,000 in England … and 101.2 per 100,000 in Scotland."⁵⁹⁵⁹ INQ000056302_0001 para 2

¶7.23. Advice from the Technical Advisory Cell dated 11 December 2020, which was shared with ministers on 15 December, confirmed that the number of people with confirmed Covid-19 in hospital had increased by 9% since the previous week.⁶⁰⁶⁰ INQ000228507_0002; INQ000321019 Professor Michael Gravenor, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology at Swansea University, agreed that it was obvious by 11 December that Alert Level 4 restrictions were required. He said that, in retrospect, the third lockdown should have been implemented earlier and the Alpha variant had created a "perfect storm".⁶¹⁶¹ Michael Gravenor 1 March 2024 185/12-187/4 Restrictions in Wales had also been relaxed too quickly in the weeks following the end of the firebreak. By 2 December, case numbers and hospital admissions were already "nearly reaching levels seen at the beginning of the firebreak".⁶²⁶² INQ000228579

¶7.24. On 11 December 2020 in Northern Ireland, as had been agreed by the Executive Committee on 3 December 2020, a number of sectors were permitted to reopen. These included non-essential businesses in retail and close-contact services, restaurants and cafes, hostels and guesthouses, places of worship, museums, galleries and libraries. So-called 'wet pubs' (drink-only public houses that do not serve food), theatres and nightclubs were to remain closed.⁶³⁶³ INQ000048501_0004, 0007-0008 para 16(iv)

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¶7.25. On 12 December 2020, Professor Whitty discussed the new variant in Kent with Mr Johnson.⁶⁴⁶⁴ INQ000251645_0153 para 8.87 He and Professor Van-Tam advised Matt Hancock MP, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care from July 2018 to June 2021, that the number of Covid-19 cases was rising quickly in London and the south-east of England. It was unclear whether the new variant was responsible for this increase.⁶⁵⁶⁵ INQ000072127. Mr Gething was first informed of the Alpha variant on 14 December 2020 (INQ000391237_0086 para 341).

¶7.26. Mr Johnson subsequently chaired a UK government emergency meeting of the Cabinet's Covid-19 Operations Committee (Covid-O) on 14 December.⁶⁶⁶⁶ INQ000091065 A presentation by the Joint Biosecurity Centre set out the exponential growth in infection rates in London and the south-east/east, at a rate that had not been seen since mid-March 2020. It forecast, on the trajectory observed, that there would be an eight-fold increase by Christmas 2020. It noted that the planned relaxation of household mixing restrictions at Christmas would inevitably accelerate transmission further. Case rates had continued to increase rapidly during Tier 3 restrictions in December, and Tier 3 was not containing the virus in Kent.⁶⁷⁶⁷ INQ000054310

¶7.27. The consensus was that schools should remain open, with the Department for Education working up plans for a delayed return in January 2021 to enable testing to be put in place. Professors Whitty and Vallance urged caution about becoming obsessed with the new variant, reflecting their view that it was the epidemiological picture that was important. The lesson was that, if restrictions were "relaxed too early, infection rates came back quickly" and the virus would "take-off fast".⁶⁸⁶⁸ INQ000091065_0006-0007 Michael Gove MP (later Lord Gove), Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster from July 2019 to September 2021, the sole voice arguing for placing London into Tier 3 on an earlier occasion, was recorded in Professor Vallance's evening notes as advising that "measures from last year show we have been 'too lenient & too late' & we cannot make the same mistakes yet again".⁶⁹⁶⁹ INQ000273901_0309 The Covid-O meeting agreed that London and the areas of most concern in the south-east were to be placed into Tier 3 from 16 December 2020. Christmas plans remained in place and, alongside education and testing, were to be considered later that week.

¶7.28. The self-isolation requirement was reduced from 14 to 10 days on 14 December 2020, having been announced jointly by the Chief Medical Officers for the four nations of the UK a few days earlier.⁷⁰⁷⁰ 'UK Chief Medical Officers' statement on the self-isolation period: 11 December 2020', Department of Health and Social Care, 11 December 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-chief-medical-officers-statement-on-the-self-isolation-period-11- december-2020; INQ000203967) The Welsh Government also published its updated Coronavirus Control Plan: Alert Levels in Wales – A Guide to Restrictions, which explained "in more detail how national measures … will be introduced in a more predictable way".⁷¹⁷¹ Coronavirus Control Plan: Alert Levels in Wales – A Guide to Restrictions, Welsh Government, December 2020, p4 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2020-12/coronavirus-control-plan-alert-levels-in-wales.pdf; INQ000227576)

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¶Figure 19: Alert levels in Wales, December 2020

¶Source: Coronavirus Control Plan: Alert Levels in Wales – A Guide to Restrictions, Welsh Government, December 2020, p3 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2020-12/coronavirus-control-plan-alert-levels-in-wales.pdf; INQ000227576)

¶7.29. The following day the Welsh Government was advised that the need to move to Alert Level 4 in Wales "appears to be clear" without waiting for further data.⁷²⁷² INQ000321015; INQ000321016 Dr Andrew Goodall, Director General of Health and Social Services in the Welsh Government and Chief Executive of NHS Wales from June 2014 to November 2021, continued to warn ministers of the worsening situation in NHS Wales.⁷³⁷³ INQ000321014; INQ000350099 Public Health Wales advised Dr Atherton that "urgent additional action is required, as soon as practicable, before the Christmas period. Actions taken should be consistent with those described for alert level 4".⁷⁴⁷⁴ INQ000056304_0002 It also recommended a review of the Christmas relaxations.⁷⁵⁷⁵ INQ000056304_0002 Mr Gething told the Inquiry that, by 15 December 2020, "we had a clear rationale to move ahead of the agreement the First Minister had reached with the other nations of the UK".⁷⁶⁷⁶ Vaughan Gething 11 March 2024 189/7-190/17

¶7.30. At a meeting on 15 December 2020, the Scottish Cabinet discussed a proposal for a planned, pre-emptive escalation to Level 4 nationwide on 28 December for a period of three weeks.⁷⁷⁷⁷ INQ000214800_0003 para 10 The Cabinet concluded that it:

¶" ran contrary to the levels-based approach: it could undermine the principles of

the Strategic Framework by causing restrictions to be imposed in areas where such a response would be disproportionate".⁷⁸⁷⁸ INQ000214800_0007 para 24(n)

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The first change to Christmas plans

¶7.31. On 15 and 16 December 2020, the four nations met to discuss Christmas restrictions, having agreed in late November that up to three households could form an exclusive bubble to meet at home between 23 and 27 December.⁷⁹⁷⁹ 'Joint statement on UK-wide Christmas arrangements from the UK Government and Devolved Administrations', Cabinet Office, 24 November 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-on-uk-wide-christmas-arrangements-from-the-uk- government-and-devolved-administrations; INQ000086871); INQ000199004; INQ000199006. Ms Foster represented Northern Ireland at the meeting on 15 December – she was joined by Ms O'Neill on 16 December.Show full note Following those meetings, the legal position on the number of households that could meet remained unchanged in England, Scotland and Wales. This would later change in Wales.

¶7.32. On 15 December 2020, Mr Drakeford outlined the Welsh Government's preference to "reduce the three households that can form a bubble to two", but he and Ms Sturgeon confirmed their commitment to a four-nations approach if that could be achieved.⁸⁰⁸⁰ INQ000199004_0002-0003 Mr Gove suggested that the "UK Government should share a draft statement which would take account of the particular rules of each jurisdiction".⁸¹⁸¹ INQ000199004_0003-0004

¶7.33. In a four-nations call the following morning, Ms Sturgeon agreed that the substance of the joint statement was "broadly acceptable".⁸²⁸² INQ000199006_0001 Mr Drakeford explained that, while he remained committed to a four-nations approach as far as possible, the Welsh Government would outline its preference for only two households to meet through its public messaging.⁸³⁸³ INQ000199006_0002; see also INQ000539017_0019 Ms O'Neill highlighted that the Northern Ireland Executive Committee would probably need to discuss the approach on 17 December 2020 and, while there remained a desire to be aligned, this might not prove possible.⁸⁴⁸⁴ INQ000199006_0002 It was agreed that the devolved nations would try to provide feedback on the joint statement by noon that day.⁸⁵⁸⁵ INQ000199006_0003

¶7.34. By lunchtime on 16 December 2020, both Mr Drakeford and Ms Sturgeon announced guidance in Wales and Scotland respectively that was more restrictive than the legal restrictions. Ms Sturgeon recommended to the Scottish public:

" [I]f you do form a bubble, you should not meet up with people in it any more than on one day over that period if possible … Three households is a maximum … But two would be better … In Scotland we already advise an overall limit of 8 people."⁸⁶⁸⁶ 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech – 16 December 2020', Scottish Government, 16 December 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-update-first-ministers-speech-tuesday-16-december-2020; INQ000354143)

¶7.35. Mr Drakeford gave a press conference in which he announced that the "position is that only two households should come together to form an exclusive Christmas bubble during the five-day period".⁸⁷⁸⁷ INQ000350118_0003; 'Covid-19: Welsh Government update', BBC News, 16 December 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-55331021 (see 12.25 Breaking news); INQ000584971_0015-0016) He also announced: "[W]e must move to alert level four."⁸⁸⁸⁸ INQ000350118_0001 Therefore, non-essential retail and places of leisure would close on Christmas Eve, hospitality would close at 18:00 on Christmas Day and a full move to Alert Level 4 would come into force on 28 December.⁸⁹⁸⁹ INQ000350118 Mr Drakeford told the Inquiry that he was also concerned about the other harms arising from restrictions, including harm to businesses and the economy and the impact on children. However, he concluded:

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" [I]n the end they will get Christmas back another year and we can do things to restore their education. I cannot give them back their nan."⁹⁰⁹⁰ Mark Drakeford 13 March 2024 170/14-173/9, 172/22-24

¶7.36. The joint statement was issued on behalf of the UK, Scottish and Welsh governments on the afternoon of 16 December 2020. It stated that a "smaller Christmas is a safer Christmas and a shorter Christmas is a safer Christmas".⁹¹⁹¹ 'Joint statement on staying safe at Christmas from the UK Government, Scottish Government, and Welsh Government', Cabinet Office, 16 December 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-on-staying-safe-at-christmas-from-the-uk- government-scottish-government-and-welsh-government; INQ000220411) Ultimately, the Northern Ireland Executive did not sign the joint statement but published its own statement on 21 December, although this was very similar in substance.⁹²⁹² INQ000412903_0057 para 171; 'Executive statement on Christmas arrangements', The Executive Office, 21 December 2020 (https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/news/executive-statement-christmas-arrangements; INQ000214870) There was a suggestion that Ms O'Neill had "refused to sign at the last minute for political reasons".⁹³⁹³ INQ000412903_0057 para 172 She denied this, stating that "we were perhaps in a different space".⁹⁴⁹⁴ Michelle O'Neill 14 May 2024 177/2-12; see also INQ000095177_0001; INQ000418976_0063 para 206; INQ000426982_0020 paras 74-75

¶7.37. At a press conference at about 15:30 that afternoon, Mr Johnson stated that it had been agreed across the UK that the "laws" about Christmas would be the same – three households being able to meet on five days – but that "these are maximums, not targets to aim for".⁹⁵⁹⁵ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 16 December 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 16 December 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-16- december-2020; INQ000086622) He said that it would be "inhuman" to cancel Christmas but that "people really should think very very hard about coming in under those limits" of three households and five days.⁹⁶⁹⁶ INQ000548311

¶7.38. By 16:28 that afternoon Mr Drakeford had announced that the guidance of a two-household limit would become law in Wales.⁹⁷⁹⁷ 'Covid: Two household limit at Christmas to be made law in Wales', BBC News, 16 December 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ uk-wales-55336452; INQ000584975); The Health Protection (Coronavirus Restrictions) (No. 5) (Wales) Regulations 2020, Schedule 6 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2020/1609/schedule/6/made) A single adult household would also be permitted to join. Three households could therefore potentially come together. This followed earlier discussions of the Welsh ministers, at which "the balance of views were in favour of making changes to the regulations to align with guidance".⁹⁸⁹⁸ INQ000350127

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¶7.39. Both the Welsh and Scottish governments were entitled to make decisions and present public messaging that they felt was in the best interests of their respective nations. However, the messaging on 16 December 2020 regarding the number of households that could come together over the Christmas period is likely to have caused confusion.

¶7.40. Moreover, given the data and advice regarding the rapid growth in case numbers in Wales and parts of England, Professor McBride's concerns in Northern Ireland on 8 December 2020 and the consideration of a planned move to Level 4 in Scotland from 28 December, the decision in all four nations to proceed with Christmas plans and the messaging that accompanied them was overly optimistic and provided false hope.

¶7.41. On 16 December 2020, Mr Johnson also chaired Covid-O for the first of the fortnightly tier reviews.⁹⁹⁹⁹ INQ000091076 New daily infections across the UK had risen further to 25,000 and numbers of hospital inpatients were approaching the levels of the peak of the first wave. Professors Whitty and Vallance advised "extreme caution" – "[t]hings were moving fast in the wrong direction" and R was between 1.1 and 1.2 and potentially above 1.4 in some areas.¹⁰⁰¹⁰⁰ INQ000091076_0007 Although two areas were moved to a lower tier, London and parts of the south-east (amounting to 70% of England) were moved into Tier 3.¹⁰¹¹⁰¹ INQ000091076_0007

¶7.42. On 17 December 2020, SAGE confirmed an increase in R with estimates of 1.1 to 1.2 for the UK and 1.1 to 1.3 for England. It said that "the East of England, London, and the South East now have R estimates well above 1" with "a unique geographical cluster in the South East around Kent".¹⁰²¹⁰² INQ000075736_0004 paras 9-10 It warned:

¶" [T]he models are indicating increased transmission in England since the changes

on the 2 December 2020. The marked increase in R following these changes may indicate that the November restrictions did not interrupt transmission chains to the same extent as measures taken in the first wave."¹⁰³¹⁰³ INQ000075736_0004 para 11

¶SAGE noted its concern that cases were continuing to rise in Tier 3 and advised that additional interventions might need to be considered in order to keep R below 1. It advised:

¶" [E]ven a short period of epidemic growth could lead to the number of new

hospital admissions in early January 2021 exceeding the peak of the first wave."¹⁰⁴¹⁰⁴ INQ000075736_0004 para 13

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¶As discussed below in paragraphs 7.78 to 7.88, the January 2021 peak would in fact be significantly higher.

¶7.43. On 17 December 2020, the Northern Ireland Executive Committee considered post- Christmas restrictions in light of the strain on hospital bed capacity in Northern Ireland.¹⁰⁵¹⁰⁵ INQ000065641 Since 21 October 2020, bed occupancy had only been lower than 95% on five days and some hospital sites had been operating consistently above 100% capacity. Despite the restrictions, this exceeded the peak in the first wave.¹⁰⁶¹⁰⁶ INQ000065641_0001 para 5 Transmission rates indicated a "disappointing response to the two weeks of restrictions" introduced on 27 November 2020.¹⁰⁷¹⁰⁷ INQ000065641_0004 para 16 The Executive Committee considered whether to: (i) take no action; (ii) introduce restrictions from 2 January 2021; (iii) introduce restrictions from 26 December 2020; or (iv) introduce restrictions from 19 December 2020. Mr Swann cautioned his colleagues:

" [L]eaving the current relaxations in place until 26 December carries significant risk that the measures will be too late to prevent hospital capacity becoming overwhelmed … if the figures illustrated in figure 3 were to come to pass, they are at the very margin of what the health and social care system could cope with. Any unanticipated increase in demand … would push demand beyond capacity."¹⁰⁸¹⁰⁸ INQ000065641_0006 para 33

¶7.44. Professors McBride and Young considered that the introduction of restrictions from 19 December 2020 was the optimum approach but that, ultimately, this called for a political judgement by ministers:

" [T]he arguments for 19th v 26th are finely balanced from their professional perspectives, and the key differentiating considerations are wider issues for the Executive to conclude on."¹⁰⁹¹⁰⁹ INQ000065641_0006 para 36

¶7.45. The Executive Committee decided to introduce restrictions (in effect, a lockdown) from 26 December for a period of six weeks.¹¹⁰¹¹⁰ INQ000048504. This included enhanced restrictions between 20:00 and 06:00 from 26 December 2020 to 2 January 2021, with an accompanying power for the Police Service of Northern Ireland to direct people home where they were engaged in prohibited activity, or intended to be so engaged. As Mr Swann observed subsequently, these measures were "more stringent than Tier 4 England".¹¹¹¹¹¹ INQ000065740_0001

¶7.46. Mr Swann further advised his Executive Committee colleagues that he had not considered any additional closures of schools or made recommendations for education, as the Executive Committee had decided that the continuation of education was a priority.¹¹²¹¹² INQ000065641_0008 para 46 However, he did recommend that "measures to limit school opening should be considered" and that Department of Education (Northern Ireland) and Department of Health (Northern Ireland) officials should liaise to:

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" develop a package of interventions which will minimise the disruptive impact on educational provision … while also maximising, as far as possible, the impact on the transmission".¹¹³¹¹³ INQ000065641_0010 para 57(d)

¶7.47. Ultimately, schools in Northern Ireland closed in the week before Christmas 2020, as usual. The expectation at that point was that schools would reopen in January 2021.

The response to the Alpha variant

¶Figure 20a: Tiers in England from 20 December 2020

¶Source: 'Covid: Christmas Tier-4 heartbreak for Londoners', BBC News, 19 December 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55380644; INQ000584973)

¶Figure 20b: Tiers in England from 26 December 2020

¶Source: 'Covid-19: Tougher Covid rules begin for millions in UK', BBC News, 26 December 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55449596; INQ000584969)

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¶Figure 20c: Tiers in England from 31 December 2020

chester. Man

¶Source: 'Covid-19: Twenty million in England added to toughest tier of restrictions', BBC News, 30 December 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55489932; INQ000584970)

¶7.48. On 17 December 2020, UK-wide daily recorded infections had increased to 35,383 – an increase of 69% from 10 December.¹¹⁴¹¹⁴ INQ000091081_0004 The following day, NERVTAG advised (with "moderate confidence") that the Alpha variant was substantially more transmissible than other variants, although it was unclear at that stage whether there was any difference in severity.¹¹⁵¹¹⁵ INQ000128575

¶7.49. Covid-O met on 18 December 2020 and, following overnight reflection, again on 19 December to consider the rising rates of infections, a proposal for new localised Tier 4 restrictions and arrangements for Christmas in England.¹¹⁶¹¹⁶ INQ000091087; INQ000091082; INQ000251913; INQ000091091; INQ000091279 This followed an earlier briefing to Mr Johnson by Professor Whitty and a data update from the Covid-19 Taskforce.¹¹⁷¹¹⁷ INQ000217008; INQ000255836_0165 para 581 The factors driving the increase in infections remained unclear, with allocation of tiers, compliance, seasonal impacts and the Alpha variant in the south-east as potential contributors. Covid-O decided to introduce a new Tier 4.

¶7.50. Tier 4 was announced publicly by Mr Johnson later on 19 December 2020, to come into effect the following day.¹¹⁸¹¹⁸ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 19 December 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 19 December 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-19- december-2020; INQ000086623) It applied to a number of areas in southern, eastern and south-eastern England, including London. The restrictions were comparable – with the exception of schools remaining open – to those in the four-week second England-wide lockdown that had ended only a fortnight earlier (see Chapter 6: The second wave, in this volume). Places of communal worship and outdoor sporting activities also remained open.

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¶7.51. Mr Johnson also stated that there would be:

¶" total cancellation of the Christmas bubble plans in tier four areas, and in other

parts of the country, three households would only be allowed to meet on Christmas Day".¹¹⁹¹¹⁹ INQ000091091_0008

¶This was a significant reversal of the decision made only a few days earlier.

¶7.52. The devolved administrations were updated by Mr Gove following the Covid-O meeting and prior to the public announcement.¹²⁰¹²⁰ INQ000199009

¶7.53. The Welsh Government received advice based on modelling on 18 December 2020, which stated:

¶" [T]he most efficient way to reduce harm from covid-19 and pressure on the NHS

is to remove the Christmas relaxation policy and move to alert level 4 restrictions as soon as practically possible (high confidence)."¹²¹¹²¹ INQ000321022; INQ000321023_0001

¶The Welsh Government decided on 19 December 2020 to bring forward the implementation of Alert Level 4 restrictions to midnight on that day.¹²²¹²² INQ000048803 Its public statement said that the latest evidence about the new variant of coronavirus suggested it was present throughout Wales, and this "new information has required an immediate response".¹²³¹²³ 'Written Statement: Alert level four restrictions', Mark Drakeford, First Minister, Welsh Government, 19 December 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/written-statement-alert-level-four-restrictions; INQ000216561) Wales entered a lockdown similar to that of March 2020. Two households could meet on Christmas Day only.¹²⁴¹²⁴ INQ000389184_0086 para 301

¶7.54. Mr Drakeford reflected that Christmas 2020 was "the most difficult period of decision-making in the whole of the pandemic for the Welsh Government".¹²⁵¹²⁵ Mark Drakeford 13 March 2024 170/14-173/9 The Welsh Government had adopted a similar strategy to the rest of the UK of trying to preserve some prospect of relaxation of the rules for a number of days over the Christmas period. However, Dr Tracey Cooper, Chief Executive of Public Health Wales from June 2014, suggested that the Welsh Government should have acted earlier on the advice from Public Health Wales.¹²⁶¹²⁶ INQ000276282_0030-0031 paras 126-127 The Welsh Government had clear, unambiguous evidence by 15 December 2020 – including the advice of Public Health Wales and advice on NHS capacity – that a full and immediate move to Alert Level 4 was required. These measures should have been implemented immediately.

¶7.55. An emergency Scottish Cabinet meeting took place on 19 December 2020. A briefing paper noted that the current situation in Scotland was less difficult than in the rest of the UK. This created the opportunity to act early to prevent or reduce importation and transmission of the new strain to prevent a "very serious" situation in January.¹²⁷¹²⁷ INQ000232740_0002 During the Cabinet discussion, Ms Sturgeon noted:

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" [T]he single most important lesson since the initial outbreak in February 2020 had been that waiting for more data (and therefore delaying action) could have highly negative consequences. It was essential to act quickly, decisively and preventatively."¹²⁸¹²⁸ INQ000232744_0003 para 12

¶Subsequently, Ms Sturgeon announced that relaxation of restrictions would be limited to Christmas Day, with the whole of mainland Scotland placed under Level 4 rules from Boxing Day. Travel between Scotland and the rest of the UK would "not be legal".¹²⁹¹²⁹ 'Covid: Lockdown looms as Scotland tightens Christmas rules', BBC News, 19 December 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ uk-scotland-55379632; INQ000357747); 'New guidance issued for the festive period', Scottish Government, 19 December 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/news/new-guidance-issued-for-the-festive-period; INQ000369718) She also announced that schools in Scotland would remain open until the Christmas holidays. She said that there would be an extended holiday period for the majority of pupils until 11 January 2021 and thereafter remote learning until at least 18 January.¹³⁰¹³⁰ 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech – 19 December', Scottish Government, 19 December 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-update-first-ministers-speech; INQ000354144)

¶7.56. The Northern Ireland Executive Committee met on 20 December. Four potential cases of the Alpha variant had been identified.¹³¹¹³¹ INQ000276560 Handwritten notes record Professor McBride as having said: "[V] little doubt – variant already in NI."¹³²¹³² INQ000065740_0007 It was agreed that Mr Swann would bring forward a paper on whether a ban on travel from "Great Britain and from the Republic of Ireland to Northern Ireland" should be introduced.¹³³¹³³ INQ000022460_0002 para 5 Ultimately, ministers decided to issue travel guidance rather than a ban.¹³⁴¹³⁴ INQ000276561_0002; INQ000065742_0022 Mr Swann indicated that, in light of the emerging situation in relation to the new variant, he did not believe that a return to school as normal in January was "a sustainable position".¹³⁵¹³⁵ INQ000276560_0003

¶7.57. The following day, the Northern Ireland Executive published its statement on Christmas arrangements.¹³⁶¹³⁶ 'Executive statement on Christmas arrangements', The Executive Office, 21 December 2020 (https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/news/executive-statement-christmas-arrangements; INQ000214870) Christmas bubbling would be reduced to one day only on a date between 23 and 27 December 2020.¹³⁷¹³⁷ 'Executive statement on Christmas arrangements', The Executive Office, 21 December 2020 (https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/news/executive-statement-christmas-arrangements; INQ000214870) It advised:

" The safest place for everyone to spend Christmas is in their own home and people are strongly advised to stay at home for Christmas. Those who feel they need to meet with their bubble should keep it as small as possible, as close to home as possible and keep the visit short."¹³⁸¹³⁸ 'Executive statement on Christmas arrangements', The Executive Office, 21 December 2020 (https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/news/executive-statement-christmas-arrangements; INQ000214870)

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Matters would be kept under review by the Executive Committee due to the "rapidly evolving situation" and ministers were to consider the issue of restricting travel at their next meeting.¹³⁹¹³⁹ 'Executive statement on Christmas arrangements', The Executive Office, 21 December 2020 (https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/news/executive-statement-christmas-arrangements; INQ000214870)

¶Figure 21: Revised rules for Christmas 2020

«In tiers one to three up to three -

«In tier four you can't be ina - * No travel allowed to rest of UK

¶Source: 'Christmas rules 2020: What are the new rules on mixing?', BBC News, 23 December 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55056375; INQ000584958)

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¶7.58. Despite the introduction of Tier 4 and the increased restrictions on Christmas gatherings, R continued to rise in England, with a resulting increase in infections, hospitalisations and deaths.¹⁴⁰¹⁴⁰ INQ000184012_0001, 0013-0014 On 21 December 2020, NERVTAG concluded that it had "high confidence that [Alpha] can spread faster than other SARS-CoV-2 virus variants currently circulating in the UK".¹⁴¹¹⁴¹ INQ000212114_0003

¶7.59. By 22 December 2020, R was estimated to be 1.1 to 1.3 for the UK as a whole, based on lagged data, with England at 1.1 to 1.4, Scotland 0.9 to 1.1, Wales 1.0 to 1.3 and Northern Ireland 0.8 to 1.1. The situation in the community in England was reflected in sharp rises in infections and positive cases in care homes.¹⁴²¹⁴² INQ000091280_0001 SAGE advised that Tier 4 – the equivalent of the November second lockdown with schools remaining open – was highly unlikely to result in reducing R below 1, given the transmissibility of the Alpha variant.¹⁴³¹⁴³ INQ000075511_0001 para 11 It was not known whether a return to the measures in the first lockdown, with schools closed, would be sufficient to do so.

¶7.60. With Wales already, in effect, in lockdown, the Technical Advisory Cell confirmed the following day that the Alpha variant was circulating in Wales.¹⁴⁴¹⁴⁴ INQ000310630_0001

¶7.61. At the Cabinet meeting on 22 December 2020, Ms Sturgeon again noted that there was:

" a strong risk that growth in the new variant would be exponential unless significant new mitigations were put in place".¹⁴⁵¹⁴⁵ INQ000214801_0003 para 10

¶She announced that Level 4 restrictions, planned for all mainland areas of Scotland from Boxing Day, might need to be strengthened in order to contain the Alpha variant.¹⁴⁶¹⁴⁶ 'Covid in Scotland: Scottish level four rules "may be strengthened"', BBC News, 22 December 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55414617; INQ000357665)

¶7.62. A review of the tiers in England took place at Covid-O on 23 December 2020, outside of the regular 14-day review.¹⁴⁷¹⁴⁷ INQ000091116 Infection rates were growing. Tier 1 had predictable increases but there was an "extraordinary" increase in case rates in Tier 2 and Tier 4 areas.¹⁴⁸¹⁴⁸ INQ000091116_0005 The figures were described as "shocking", with the situation "sobering and depressing".¹⁴⁹¹⁴⁹ INQ000091116_0006-0007 Covid-O decided to escalate significant swathes of England into higher tiers.¹⁵⁰¹⁵⁰ INQ000091116_0009

¶7.63. The position changed so rapidly as a result of the Alpha variant that Mr Johnson could only hope "that as the days went on, the data would suggest some improvement and we might be able to save Christmas".¹⁵¹¹⁵¹ INQ000255836_0168 para 590 It seems likely that he also did not wish to be seen to be reversing his earlier decision. However, given the lack of adequate planning by the UK government for an increase in infections brought about by a variant of concern and a failure to take timely and decisive action, his hope was in vain.

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¶7.64. The epidemiological picture was clear, and SAGE and other scientific advisers were advising that further intervention was required. Tier 4 restrictions were insufficient and stricter restrictions were required, including over Christmas.

¶7.65. Mr Hancock announced that the changes to the tiers would come into effect on Boxing Day, commenting: "[W]e have learnt that when it's a matter of when, not if we take action. It is better to act sooner."¹⁵²¹⁵² 'Health and Social Care Secretary's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 23 December 2020', Department of Health and Social Care, 23 December 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/speech-on-coronavirus-restriction-tiers-vaccines-and-testing; INQ000086620); INQ000091282 The appreciation of a need for a tougher approach appeared to be dawning on the UK government. However, this did not deter it from maintaining a tiers-based approach.

¶7.66. By 29 December 2020, 10 days after Wales moved to Alert Level 4, the number of hospital beds occupied in Wales was higher than at the peak of the first wave in April 2020.¹⁵³¹⁵³ INQ000022520_0004 para 3.2

¶7.67. Covid-O was convened on 29 December 2020. In a report prepared that day, Professor Vallance outlined, in stark terms, the choices between continuing to escalate through the tiers system while keeping schools open, or seeking to get ahead of the curve with more expansive Tier 4 measures and delays to the reopening of secondary schools.¹⁵⁴¹⁵⁴ INQ000063113 At the meeting, Mr Johnson noted:

" The situation facing the country was grim … There were around 53,000 cases reported in the UK that day and hospital inpatients had exceeded the peak of the first wave."¹⁵⁵¹⁵⁵ INQ000091113_0004

¶7.68. Professor Vallance advised that, in reality, there were more likely to be in the region of 100,000 new cases. The NHS was under increasing pressure, with at least one hospital declaring a critical incident. Three hundred beds were to be made available in Nightingale hospitals.¹⁵⁶¹⁵⁶ INQ000091113_0006-0007 He also said that decisions "on schools would be important", as the highest prevalence rates were among children of secondary school age, followed by children of primary school age.¹⁵⁷¹⁵⁷ INQ000091113_0007 Professor Vallance recorded in his evening notes that Mr Gove argued that "all of England should go into Tier 4", with other ministers arguing for greater restrictions and, conversely, no restrictions at all.¹⁵⁸¹⁵⁸ INQ000273901_0336 Covid-O decided to continue with the tiers.¹⁵⁹¹⁵⁹ INQ000091113_0008 Mr Johnson commented:

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" Putting the whole country into tier four was premature, many areas had worked hard to suppress the virus and it did not seem fair to put in place stricter measures than needed."¹⁶⁰¹⁶⁰ INQ000091113_0008

¶7.69. A further Covid-O meeting was held to discuss schools later on 29 December 2020.¹⁶¹¹⁶¹ INQ000091117_0001-0003 On 28 December, Professor Whitty had described the Department of Education's plans for reopening schools, in light of the substantial new threat, as "absolutely minimalist".¹⁶²¹⁶² INQ000063116_0003 He advised that if, in four weeks' time, cases were rising significantly (causing death rates to rise and putting the NHS under significant pressure) then that would likely require, at short notice, the closure of all education. Professor Whitty noted that this prospect was not reflected in the advice and that ministers needed to be aware that there would have to be a Plan B if the current Plan A did not have "sufficient bite".¹⁶³¹⁶³ INQ000063116_0003 By contrast, Gavin Williamson MP (later Sir Gavin Williamson), Secretary of State for Education from July 2019 to September 2021, sought the reopening of schools at the Covid-O meeting on 29 December. This was because he had "an exceptionally high level of confidence" that the UK government could deliver the necessary testing in all secondary schools (with students getting two tests in the two weeks from 11 January and a proposal for weekly testing thereafter).¹⁶⁴¹⁶⁴ INQ000091117_0004 For primary schools, rollout of testing for all teachers and serial testing of contacts would take place from the week commencing 18 January 2021.¹⁶⁵¹⁶⁵ INQ000091117_0004 However, the scientific advice was that modelling of the new variant suggested that it was very unlikely its spread would be controlled without closing schools.¹⁶⁶¹⁶⁶ INQ000091117_0007-0008 Mr Johnson concluded:

" It was essential to move heaven and earth to get children back, and overwhelmingly primary children should go back on 4 January. But in some areas, cases were so high that some primary schools would have to delay the start of term."¹⁶⁷¹⁶⁷ INQ000091117_0008-0009

¶The plan was that primary schools would be closed on a borough-by-borough basis within London and the south-east.¹⁶⁸¹⁶⁸ INQ000091117_0008-0009; INQ000075513_0002 For secondary schools across England, children in examination years would return from 11 January 2021 and other pupils from 18 January.¹⁶⁹¹⁶⁹ INQ000091117_0004; 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 30 December 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 30 December 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19- 30-december-2020; INQ000075739) The majority of primary schools would reopen on 4 January. This was announced in Parliament by Mr Williamson. In Module 8: Children and young people, the Inquiry is exploring this sequence of events in greater detail.

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¶7.70. By 29 December 2020, R had risen to between 1.4 and 1.8 in Northern Ireland.¹⁷⁰¹⁷⁰ INQ000276566_0001 Mr Swann stated that, given the considerable pressures on the hospital system and the need to maximise the benefit from the current period of restrictions, there was a strong case for considering what additional measures could be taken for schools.¹⁷¹¹⁷¹ INQ000276566_0002

¶7.71. At his press conference on 30 December 2020, Mr Johnson confirmed changes to the reopening of schools, saying:

¶" [ W]e must face the reality that the sheer pace of the spread of this new variant

requires us now to take even tougher action in some areas and that does affect schools … In most of England, primary schools will still reassemble next week, as planned for the new term. But, in the areas we have just published today on gov.uk, I am afraid the start of the new term will be delayed until at least January 18, when the latest data on those infection rates will be reviewed. That is because the rate of transmission in these areas is so high, and there's just such pressure on the local NHS, that extra action is required to control the spread of the virus."¹⁷²¹⁷² 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 30 December 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 30 December 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-30- december-2020; INQ000075739)

¶7.72. Mr Johnson told the Inquiry:

¶" At the time, I considered that it was right to ease the second lockdown. It had

brought the R down and bought time while huge steps had been taken towards mass testing and vaccination. I thought – wrongly as it turned out – that we had done enough, that people could enjoy Christmas with their families and there would be no need for a third lockdown."¹⁷³¹⁷³ INQ000255836_0161 para 569

¶However, England exited the second lockdown with a far higher prevalence of infections when compared with the point of exit from the first lockdown in April 2020. Along with the potential for emergent variants, this coincided with the start of the most challenging period of the year with regard to the virus, other illnesses and NHS pressures.

¶7.73. By 31 December 2020, 78% of the population of England was under the most significant restrictions. These included non-essential shops, hospitality settings (other than for takeaway), beauty salons and hairdressers being closed and people being limited to meeting in a public outdoor place with their household or one other person. In Tier 3 areas, household mixing was banned indoors and in private gardens, although the 'rule of six', which permitted social gatherings of up to six people from different households, applied in public spaces. Shops, gyms and personal care services could remain open.¹⁷⁴¹⁷⁴ 'Covid-19: Twenty million in England added to toughest tier of restrictions', BBC News, 30 December 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55489932; INQ000584970_0002); INQ000088942_0002

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¶7.74. In the last week of December 2020, the number of cases in Northern Ireland increased "rapidly", and, by 29 December, R had risen to between 1.4 and 1.8.¹⁷⁵¹⁷⁵ INQ000276566_0001 Intensive care unit occupancy had risen to 34, and deaths continued to vary from day to day but were not falling.¹⁷⁶¹⁷⁶ INQ000382097_0001 More people died in Northern Ireland between the autumn of 2020 and the peak in January 2021 than in the first wave of the pandemic. Hospital capacity remained under sustained pressure. There is no evidence to suggest that there was any real economic dividend from those periods during which businesses were permitted to reopen. As Mr Swann noted in early January:

" Over the Christmas period, the progress of the epidemic and transmission of the virus was in line with modelling projections which were provided to the Executive before Christmas. Rt has risen to the upper end of modelling limits (close to 1.8) based on current case numbers, and this is reflected in substantial increases in case numbers and test positivity. This largely reflects the impact of behaviours prior to Christmas, and we will expect to see the impact of restrictions during the next 1-2 weeks."¹⁷⁷¹⁷⁷ INQ000276571_0001 para 3

¶7.75. By 29 December, data indicated that just under 500 per 100,000 people in Wales had Covid-19 and Covid-19 critical care patients had increased by 24% since 21 December.¹⁷⁸¹⁷⁸ INQ000022520_0004 paras 3.3-3.4

¶Figure 22: UK Covid-19 statistics at 31 December 2020

¶Source: 'As-it-happened: Millions told to stay home on New Year's Eve', BBC News, 31 December 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55495933; INQ000584956)

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¶7.76. On 31 December 2020, 2,622 positive tests were reported in Scotland.¹⁷⁹¹⁷⁹ 'Covid in Scotland: Cases hit record high for third day in a row', BBC News, 31 December 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55497996; INQ000357524) At a meeting of the Four Harms Group that day, Professor (later Sir) Gregor Smith, Interim Chief Medical Officer for Scotland from April to December 2020 and Chief Medical Officer for Scotland from December 2020, advised:

¶" I feel that we are now at the most dangerous point since mid-March. The escalating case numbers cannot be explained purely by people mixing. I expect that cases are going to get a lot worse and rapid growth is a huge concern …

¶We need urgent action. I don't believe that the current Level 4 restrictions are sufficient to contain the new variant in Scotland."¹⁸⁰¹⁸⁰ INQ000232954_0002. The Four Harms Group had responsibility for discussing direct health harm, broader health harm, social harm and economic harm, as well as potential responses, to inform advice for decision-making (INQ000280694).

¶7.77. The virus had continued its rapid growth in all four nations.

Early January 2021

¶7.78. There was a varied epidemiological picture across the UK in early January 2021:

Wales had been under Alert Level 4 restrictions (equivalent to lockdown) since 20 December 2020. By 6 January, the seven-day average of cases was "very high in most parts of Wales".¹⁸¹¹⁸¹ INQ000022521_0002 para 2.3 At around 470 per 100,000 of the population and almost 2,800 patients with symptoms of Covid-19 occupying hospital beds, this meant that "the NHS in Wales was in a very challenging position".¹⁸²¹⁸² INQ000022521_0002-0003 para 2.6
Northern Ireland was in its six-week lockdown, implemented on 26 December 2020. However, on 5 January 2021, R was 1.5 to 1.9 and the average number of new cases per day for the previous seven days was 1,820 (up from 812).¹⁸³¹⁸³ INQ000382104_0001 Hospital capacity, at times, exceeded 100%, and most health and social care trusts were required to postpone other activities to respond to the significant number of patients with Covid-19.¹⁸⁴¹⁸⁴ Moving Forward: The Executive's Pathway out of Restrictions, Northern Ireland Executive, 2 March 2021, p6 (https://www. executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/execoffice/executives-pathway-out-of-restrictions.pdf; INQ000104467)
In England, there had been an 80% increase in new daily infections since 27 December 2020.¹⁸⁵¹⁸⁵ INQ000136711_0010 By 4 January 2021, the number of Covid-19 patients in hospital had increased by 30% in one week and was 40% above the April 2020 peak. The number of deaths reported that day was 454, but revised estimates placed this figure at 896 with Covid-19 on the death certificate, with a seven-day average of 913.¹⁸⁶¹⁸⁶ INQ000238826_0143 para 431 As noted by Professor Vallance, these were higher figures than at the announcement of the second lockdown and significantly higher than at the time of the first lockdown.¹⁸⁷¹⁸⁷ INQ000238826_0143 para 431

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All of mainland Scotland had been under Level 4 restrictions from 26 December 2020. The seven-day average of cases had increased from 136 per 100,000 on 19 December to 225 per 100,000 by 30 December 2020.¹⁸⁸¹⁸⁸ INQ000232688_0008 In the week up to 3 January 2021, daily case numbers had risen by an average of 75% to around 2,100 confirmed new cases per day.¹⁸⁹¹⁸⁹ INQ000232688_0008

¶Figure 23: Estimated percentage of the population testing positive for Covid-19 from 5 December 2020 to 16 January 2021

0 0 0 0 21 21 — 21
02 02 02 02 20 20 — 20

r2 r2 r2 r2 y y y be be be be ar ar ar m m m m nu nu nu ce ce ce ce Ja Ja Ja

De De De De 4 11 — 18
7 14 21 — 28

¶Source: For raw data, see the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey England 2023 dataset: https://www.ons.gov.uk/ peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2023 (modelled estimates, 95% confidence intervals not shown)

¶7.79. On 4 January 2021, advice from the Joint Biosecurity Centre to the Chief Medical Officers for the four nations concluded:

" [A] COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is rising exponentially; it is almost certain that across much of the UK the NHS will exceed its assumed COVID-19 contingency capacity in the next 21 days; and there is a material risk of healthcare services being overwhelmed in England, Wales and Northern Ireland."¹⁹⁰¹⁹⁰ INQ000072317

In light of this, the Chief Medical Officers and the NHS England Medical Director recommended a move to UK Alert Level 5.¹⁹¹¹⁹¹ 'COVID-19 alert level: Update from the UK Chief Medical Officers', Department of Health and Social Care, 4 January 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-alert-level-update-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers; INQ000234691); INQ000072317

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A third lockdown in England

¶7.80. On 1 January 2021, Mr Gove raised the prospect of delaying all primary schools reopening in London and queried whether reconsideration of other areas was going to be necessary.¹⁹²¹⁹² INQ000217071 Mr Williamson emphasised the importance of reopening schools as soon as possible and that the decision to close some had been a reluctant one. However, he and Mr Hancock subsequently provided joint advice to close all London primary schools and this was announced later that day.¹⁹³¹⁹³ INQ000075513; Contingency Framework – Implementation Guidance, Department for Education, 1 January 2021 (https://s4s.wandsworth.gov.uk/Pages/Download/E82BB4DF-3F5E-4C2C-B904-C402E83E7EEF/PageSectionDocuments; INQ000075516); INQ000259848_0064-0065 para 127; 'Contingency framework implemented across London boroughs', Department for Education, Department of Health and Social Care and Gavin Williamson, 1 January 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ contingency-framework-implemented-across-london-boroughs; INQ000075740)Show full note

¶7.81. The following day, Mr Gove sent a private note to Mr Johnson. He expressed his view that Tier 4 restrictions should be applied across England, the 'Stay Home' messaging should be deployed more prominently, secondary schools should be closed until the February 2021 half-term holiday and primary schools should be closed until at least 18 January 2021.¹⁹⁴¹⁹⁴ INQ000184013 Mr Johnson said that, while he was grateful to Mr Gove, he did not "think he was telling me anything I did not know".¹⁹⁵¹⁹⁵ INQ000255836_0172-0173 para 598

¶7.82. On 4 January 2021, Mr Johnson announced a third lockdown, putting all of England into Tier 4, to come into effect the following day.¹⁹⁶¹⁹⁶ 'Prime Minister announces national lockdown', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 4 January 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-announces-national-lockdown; INQ000065415) He said:

" By the middle of February, if things go well and with a fair wind in our sails, we expect to have offered the first vaccine dose to everyone in the four top priority groups identified by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation … Then I hope we can steadily move out of lockdown, reopening schools after the February half term and starting, cautiously, to move regions down the tiers."¹⁹⁷¹⁹⁷ 'Prime Minister's address to the nation: 4 January 2021', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 4 January 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-address-to-the-nation-4-january-2021; INQ000086664)

¶7.83. The majority of primary schools in England reopened for a single day, 4 January 2021, only to close again to most children the following day.

Lockdown in mainland Scotland

¶7.84. The Scottish Cabinet met as scheduled on 4 January 2021.¹⁹⁸¹⁹⁸ INQ000214456 John Swinney MSP, Deputy First Minister of Scotland from November 2014 to March 2023, advised:

" With great reluctance, I have concluded that it will be necessary for schools to move to a model of remote learning for all children … It is difficult to predict with any certainty just now the duration of that period, although we might work on the basis of 1 February in the first instance."¹⁹⁹¹⁹⁹ INQ000232688_0002 para 10

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¶7.85. Ms Sturgeon explained that the new Alpha variant meant that the virus was accelerating rapidly. Tougher restrictions would therefore be required to slow its progress while ensuring that the vaccination programme proceeded as rapidly as possible. No account was taken of the impact of the further lockdown as far as other social and economic harms were concerned.²⁰⁰²⁰⁰ INQ000214456_0004 para 13; INQ000274154_0057 para 163 The Cabinet decided to close schools and also to place mainland Scotland in lockdown from midnight on 4 January 2021 until the end of January, with people ordered to stay at home except for essential purposes.²⁰¹²⁰¹ 'Scotland in lockdown', Scottish Government, 4 January 2021 (https://www.gov.scot/news/scotland-in-lockdown; INQ000357841) By this point, lockdown was described by Ms Sturgeon as "the only responsible course open to us".²⁰²²⁰² INQ000339033_0130 para 366 The NHS in Scotland now had "less capacity and resilience than the previous spring" and was likely to be overwhelmed within the month without further preventative action.²⁰³²⁰³ INQ000214456_0002-0003 paras 4-5 Professor Paul Cairney, expert witness on Scottish Government core decision-making and political governance, told the Inquiry:

" [T]he four harms approach was not a strong feature of the emergency decision-making associated with lockdowns … [in] January 2021."²⁰⁴²⁰⁴ INQ000274154_0057 para 163

¶7.86. Mr Swinney described the period leading up to 4 January 2021 as "a terrifying couple of days" but said:

" The four harms framework acknowledged and accepted that there was one very direct acute harm which is caused by the virus, and the rest of the framework is about trying to help us navigate our way out of those -- the difficulties caused by that set of circumstances if we've managed to get the acute threat of the pandemic under control, and at that moment on 4 January we were not in that position."²⁰⁵²⁰⁵ John Swinney 30 January 2024 175/4-177/2

¶The framework ought to have been about assessing all four harms and making decisions that balanced them all, not disregarding Harms 2 to 4 until the recovery phase had been reached. Although the Scottish Government was in an emergency situation in January 2021, it ought to have implemented ways of minimising Harms 2 to 4, even when Harm 1 was the main threat.

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Developments in Wales and Northern Ireland

¶7.87. In Wales, the original intention was to give schools the flexibility to decide when to reopen in the first two weeks of term.²⁰⁶²⁰⁶ INQ000353851_0001 However, following the joint Chief Medical Officers' recommendation to move to Alert Level 5, the Welsh Government confirmed that "it is now clear that a national approach of online learning for the first fortnight of term is the best way forward".²⁰⁷²⁰⁷ INQ000353851_0001 On 4 January 2021, it announced that all schools, including primary schools, would not reopen and instead would move to online learning until 18 January, with the exception of children of critical workers, vulnerable learners and those who needed to complete essential exams or assessments.²⁰⁸²⁰⁸ INQ000353851_0001 The Welsh Cabinet also agreed, on 6 January, to retain Alert Level 4 restrictions.²⁰⁹²⁰⁹ INQ000022521 Ms Williams confirmed the following day that it would not be possible to fully reopen schools on 18 January as planned.²¹⁰²¹⁰ INQ000022521

¶7.88. When the Northern Ireland Executive Committee met on 4 January 2021, Mr Swann noted that the increase in cases was "in line with extreme modelling".²¹¹²¹¹ INQ000065709_0002 Ms O'Neill emphasised the need for the Executive to be decisive, observing that "[w]e are living worst case scenario".²¹²²¹² INQ000065709_0003 The following day, the Executive Committee agreed a number of changes to school restrictions. All mainstream education providers were to deliver remote learning until the half-term holidays in the middle of February 2021. Vulnerable children and children of key workers were able to attend school for supervised learning and special schools were to remain open.²¹³²¹³ INQ000207210_0002; INQ000235720_0058-0059 para 118 Mr Swann advised that cases in those aged over 60 had risen substantially due to inter-generational mixing and set out the expectation that hospital admissions would continue to rise, before peaking in the last two weeks of January "at a level significantly higher than any point in the epidemic to date".²¹⁴²¹⁴ INQ000276571_0002 para 6 The Executive Committee agreed to introduce a number of additional restrictions with effect from 7 January to 6 February, with a review on 21 January.²¹⁵²¹⁵ INQ000276571_0010-0013; INQ000207210_0002

Continuing restrictions

¶7.89. On 19 January 2021, following a meeting of the Scottish Cabinet, Ms Sturgeon extended Scotland's lockdown, including the closure of schools, until mid-February 2021.²¹⁶²¹⁶ 'Covid in Scotland: Schools to stay closed as lockdown extended', BBC News, 19 January 2021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55718133; INQ000357660) The islands of Barra and Vatersay were moved from Level 3 to Level 4 restrictions from midnight, due to a "significant outbreak".²¹⁷²¹⁷ INQ000078427_0011 para 55 Later in January, the whole of the Western Isles were moved to Level 4 restrictions to control a spike in Covid-19 cases.²¹⁸²¹⁸ 'Covid in Scotland: Western Isles goes into lockdown', BBC News, 30 January 2021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-55857072; INQ000357716; INQ000369751)

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¶7.90. The number of cases in Northern Ireland decreased, although hospital admissions and bed occupancy had not fallen.²¹⁹²¹⁹ INQ000391432_0001 Military medical technicians had been deployed to hospitals to assist with the sustained pressures on the health service.²²⁰²²⁰ INQ000400872; INQ000421542 On 21 January 2021, Mr Swann advised the Executive Committee that hospitalisations and intensive care unit admissions were the highest since the start of the pandemic. He also stated:

" The learning from wave 2 in the autumn of last year shows that significantly relaxing restrictions when cases continue to be at a high baseline quickly led to an escalating situation where restrictions needed to be introduced to arrest growth of the epidemic."²²¹²²¹ INQ000065591_0012-0013 para 34

¶The Executive Committee agreed to extend the restrictions until 5 March 2021.²²²²²² INQ000048510_0004 para 12(iv)

¶7.91. On 25 January 2021, the Welsh Cabinet agreed to retain Alert Level 4 restrictions. Dr Atherton told the Welsh Cabinet that the Alpha variant "could be up to 70% more likely to be transmitted".²²³²²³ INQ000129912_0003 para 3.5