February to April 2021

7.92. On 2 February 2021, Mr Swinney advised the Scottish Cabinet that "protective measures would need to be in place for some time to come".224 INQ000214460_0003 para 12 The Cabinet approved an extension of the current lockdown arrangements until at least the end of February and agreed provisional plans for a phased return to full-time education from 22 February, subject to confirmation at the next fortnightly review.225 INQ000214460_0005-0006 para 19; 'Covid: Scottish schools to start phased return this month', BBC News, 2 February 2021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55904466; INQ000357764) On 17 February, following the next review, Ms Sturgeon announced that there was evidence that vaccination was reducing the number of deaths from Covid-19, with the weekly death rate having fallen for three consecutive weeks, falling in care homes by 62% during that time.226 'Covid in Scotland: Deaths falling as vaccine "having an effect"', BBC News, 17 February 2021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56098578; INQ000357539) There was also an expansion of testing from 18 February to include anyone identified as a close contact of someone who had tested positive for Covid-19.227 'Close contacts to be offered testing', Scottish Government, 17 February 2021 (https://www.gov.scot/news/close-contacts-to-be-offered-testing; INQ000571289)

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7.93. By 17 February 2021, the first dose of the vaccine had been offered to all those in the four most vulnerable cohorts identified by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (ie elderly care home residents, those 70 and over, the clinically extremely vulnerable – see Chapter 10: Vulnerabilities and inequalities, in Volume II – and frontline health and social care staff) in all four nations.228 Moving Forward: The Executive's Pathway out of Restrictions, Northern Ireland Executive, 2 March 2021, p8 (https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/execoffice/executives-pathway-out-of-restrictions.pdf; INQ000104467); INQ000354293_0003; INQ000584968; INQ000591900 On 26 February 2021, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation published interim advice on Phase 2 of the Covid-19 vaccination programme, which stated that prioritisation of the vaccine should continue to be age-based.229 JCVI Interim Statement on Phase 2 of the COVID-19 Vaccination Programme: 26 February 2021, Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, updated 13 April 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-phase-2-of-the- coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-programme-advice-from-the-jcvi/jcvi-interim-statement-on-phase-2-of-the-covid-19-vaccination- programme; INQ000354488_0003-0004)

7.94. On 16 February 2021, Dr Atherton informed the Welsh Cabinet that the situation was improving in Wales and that over 780,000 people had now had their first dose of a vaccine. However, there remained a need for caution, due to uncertainty surrounding new variants and the impact that vaccines would have on transmission rates. The Cabinet agreed to retain Alert Level 4 restrictions, although four people from two households could meet outdoors provided that social distancing was observed.230 INQ000057770_0003 paras 1.7, 1.9, 1.12

7.95. Northern Ireland remained subject to restrictions throughout February 2021. While the number of Covid-19-positive inpatients had been on a downward trend since the peak of 834 in mid-January 2021, it remained high. On 15 February, Northern Ireland had 436 Covid-19-positive inpatients and 59 confirmed Covid-19-positive inpatients in intensive care units.231 INQ000065592_0005-0006 para 14 The number of Covid-19-positive inpatients was not expected to fall below 150 before the middle of March 2021.232 INQ000065592_0006 para 16

7.96. On 18 February 2021, a paper from the Department of Health (Northern Ireland) observed that the high number of patients requiring critical care would:

" continue to constrain the ability of critical care to provide dedicated support for complex elective surgery in the coming weeks. These severe pressures mean that surgery, including urgent and cancer surgery, has been adversely affected. As current pressures are likely to be sustained for many weeks … it is inevitable that there will be a detrimental impact on patient treatment and potentially patient outcome as a consequence."233 INQ000065592_0006 paras 15-16

The paper set out various modelling projections and cautioned that there was:

" a material risk of significant adverse implications if there is even a minor misjudgement in the scale and speed of any relaxation of the restrictions".234 INQ000065592_0007 para 19

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Noting that the position remained "fragile", the conclusion of the Department of Health (Northern Ireland) was that relaxations of the restrictions at this juncture would be premature.235 INQ000065592_0012-0013 para 36 On 18 February 2021, the Executive Committee decided to extend the current restrictions until 1 April 2021, with a further review to take place on or before 18 March 2021.236 INQ000048516_0003 para 10(iv)

Roadmaps to the removal of restrictions

Figure 24: UK Covid-19 statistics at 15 February 2021

Source: 'England restrictions to be lifted in stages – PM', BBC News, 17 February 2021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56095941; INQ000591890)

7.97. On 19 February 2021, the Welsh Government announced that its lockdown would continue for a further three weeks.237 'Lockdown to continue for further three weeks as pupils return to school', Welsh Government, 19 February 2021 (www.gov.wales/lockdown-continue-further-three-weeks-pupils-return-school; INQ000584988) It also published an updated plan, entitled Coronavirus Control Plan: Alert Levels in Wales – Coming out of Lockdown, which set out a "more cautious approach to coming out of lockdown" given the emergence of new variants.238 Coronavirus Control Plan: Alert Levels in Wales – Coming out of Lockdown, Welsh Government, February 2021, p2 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-02/coronavirus-control-plan-alert-levels-in-wales-coming-out-of- lockdown.pdf; INQ000081858) It identified a number of priorities when it was possible to move to Alert Level 3:

" • Returning our children, young people and students back to schools and education will remain our top priority. Other changes we make should not risk this objective. • We will prioritise changes that improve wellbeing, introducing those which are of lowest risk first. • Outdoor activity continues to be lower risk than indoors, so activities that take place outdoors are likely to resume before indoor activities.

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  • Similarly, meeting outdoors will be a safer way to see people before we are able to reintroduce extended households or enable people to meet indoors.
  • Activities that involve fewer people over shorter time periods are lower risk than when lots of people are in the same place for a long period of time.
  • Businesses such as non-essential retail and close contact services are lower risk and likely to be able to re-open before higher risk places such as gyms, leisure centres, and hospitality."239 Coronavirus Control Plan: Alert Levels in Wales – Coming out of Lockdown, Welsh Government, February 2021, p13 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-02/coronavirus-control-plan-alert-levels-in-wales-coming-out-of- lockdown.pdf; INQ000081858)

7.98. Coronavirus Control Plan: Alert Levels in Wales – Coming out of Lockdown did not assign dates for any relaxations but confirmed that the Welsh Government would take a similar approach to the one it took from May 2020, namely "careful steps and evaluating the impact before making further changes".240 Coronavirus Control Plan: Alert Levels in Wales – Coming out of Lockdown, Welsh Government, February 2021, p11 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-02/coronavirus-control-plan-alert-levels-in-wales-coming-out-of- lockdown.pdf; INQ000081858) Decisions would be taken in line with the three-week review cycle but might also be taken outside of that process to ensure "restrictions are only in place for as long as they are needed".241 Coronavirus Control Plan: Alert Levels in Wales – Coming out of Lockdown, Welsh Government, February 2021, p12 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-02/coronavirus-control-plan-alert-levels-in-wales-coming-out-of- lockdown.pdf; INQ000081858)

7.99. The COVID-19 Response – Spring 2021 roadmap for England was published on 22 February 2021, having been endorsed by the UK Cabinet earlier that day.242 COVID-19 Response – Spring 2021, HM Government, February 2021 (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/ media/6033cfdae90e076607c1bf18/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf; INQ000185087); INQ000088893 Advice from SAGE, including by SPI-M-O, informed its development.243 INQ000061587; INQ000061588; INQ000061589; INQ000061593 It was a detailed, public-facing document with clear objectives. It outlined four tests that would inform when the UK would move to the next step:

" 1. The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully.

  1. Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.
  1. Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
  1. Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern."244 COVID-19 Response – Spring 2021, HM Government, February 2021, p25, para 83 (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/ media/6033cfdae90e076607c1bf18/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf; INQ000185087)

Restrictions were to be removed at the same time across England, owing to the relatively uniform spread of the virus. There were indicative "no earlier than" dates for each of the four steps, which were five weeks apart in order to assess data on the impact of the previous step and one further week's notice of changes.245 COVID-19 Response – Spring 2021 (Summary), Cabinet Office, 22 February 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ covid-19-response-spring-2021/covid-19-response-spring-2021-summary; INQ000054709) Step 1 was to take effect on 8 March 2021, by which time cohorts 1 to 4 would have received protection from their first dose of the vaccine, with further limited changes on 29 March to allow families to meet outdoors as most schools broke up for the Easter holidays.

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Figure 25: Steps in the COVID-19 Response – Spring 2021 roadmap, February 2021 are open for all stud

Source: COVID-19 Response – Spring 2021, HM Government, February 2021, pp31, 37, 40, 43 (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6033cfdae90e076607c1bf18/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf; INQ000185087)

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7.100. On 23 February 2021, COVID-19: Scotland's Strategic Framework Update was approved by the Scottish Cabinet and published later that day.246 COVID-19: Scotland's Strategic Framework Update, Scottish Government, February 2021 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/ coronavirus-covid-19-strategic-framework-update-february-2021; INQ000339831); INQ000214549; INQ000232693; INQ000233242 It set out the broad order of priority for reopening and the conditions that needed to be met to start lifting restrictions and linked the removal of restrictions to the prevalence of the virus and coverage of the vaccine rollout, without providing indicative dates.247 INQ000369727; COVID-19: Scotland's Strategic Framework Update, Scottish Government, February 2021 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-strategic-framework-update-february-2021; INQ000339831) It envisaged that the remainder of the pandemic could effectively be divided into three phases, although timeframes were not made public "as actual progress is conditional on data".248 INQ000232952_0001 paras 5-6 These phases were:

  • Phase 1 (from February to April 2021) would include a return to Level 4 restrictions, with schools reopening.
  • Phase 2 (from April to August/September 2021) would involve the continued application of the Levels system until all areas in Scotland were sustainably at Level 1 or 0.
  • Phase 3 (from August/September 2021) onwards in which Covid-19 would be endemic (with a stable, predictable incidence rate) and "no longer a serious threat to public health" (emphasis in original).249 INQ000232952_0001 paras 5-6

The Four Harms Group, which had contributed to the development of the plan, noted that levels might be retained:

" as an outbreak management tool to reflect potential risk from variation in population immunity (both natural as vaccine effect wears off and due to impact of new variants with vaccine escape properties)".250 INQ000232952_0001 paras 5-6

7.101. The Northern Ireland Executive published Moving Forward: The Executive's Pathway out of Restrictions on 2 March 2021.251 Moving Forward: The Executive's Pathway out of Restrictions, Northern Ireland Executive, 2 March 2021, pp1-4 (https://www. executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/execoffice/executives-pathway-out-of-restrictions.pdf; INQ000104467) It involved a slower relaxation of restrictions and was not linked to specific dates, but set out a five-phase approach to nine pathways, including 'Home and Community', 'Education and Young People' and 'Hospitality'.252 Moving Forward: The Executive's Pathway out of Restrictions, Northern Ireland Executive, 2 March 2021, p14 (https://www. executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/execoffice/executives-pathway-out-of-restrictions.pdf; INQ000104467) However, the pathway was "undermined within hours" of its publication by public criticism from other ministers.253 INQ000065711_0007 Naomi Long MLA, Minister for Justice in Northern Ireland from January 2020 to October 2022, told the Inquiry that this was "damaging to our being able to promote it publicly as a cohesive and clear approach".254 INQ000436642_0032-0033 paras 146-147. The issue of ministers making public statements that contradict or undermine Executive Committee decision-making is discussed in Chapter 11: Government decision-making, in Volume II.

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Figure 26: Extract from Moving Forward: The Executive's Pathway out of Restrictions

3 Gradua! By the end of this Easing phase... 5 Preparing for

Organised outdoor

Source: Moving Forward: The Executive's Pathway out of Restrictions, Northern Ireland Executive, 2 March 2021, p18 (https://www. executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/execoffice/executives-pathway-out-of-restrictions.pdf; INQ000104467)

heart of the UK Government's strategy to manage COVID-19".255 COVID-19 Response – Spring 2021, HM Government, February 2021, p7 para 3 (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/ media/6033cfdae90e076607c1bf18/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf; INQ000185087) Ms Sturgeon, in her foreword to COVID-19: Scotland's Strategic Framework Update, explained that vaccines:

" will reduce illness and deaths from COVID and also, ultimately, when a high proportion of our population has been vaccinated, let us return to a more normal way of living".256 COVID-19: Scotland's Strategic Framework Update, Scottish Government, February 2021, p3 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-strategic-framework-update-february-2021; INQ000339831)

Coronavirus Control Plan: Alert Levels in Wales – Coming out of Lockdown adopted a more cautious tone, noting that the Welsh Government was still "learning about the effectiveness of vaccines", but if they worked "as hoped" they would, along with other measures, "enable us to move out of the alert level four measures".257 Coronavirus Control Plan: Alert Levels in Wales – Coming out of Lockdown, Welsh Government, February 2021, p3 (https://www. gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-02/coronavirus-control-plan-alert-levels-in-wales-coming-out-of-lockdown.pdf; INQ000081858) Similarly,

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in Northern Ireland, Moving Forward: The Executive's Pathway out of Restrictions recognised that no vaccine was "100% effective" and "not everyone will be vaccinated" and cautioned:

" [T]his might mean that some measures to limit transmission are still needed for some time even after all adults have been offered a vaccine."258 Moving Forward: The Executive's Pathway out of Restrictions, Northern Ireland Executive, 2 March 2021, p8 (https://www. executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/execoffice/executives-pathway-out-of-restrictions.pdf; INQ000104467)

Figure 27: Vaccine doses across the UK, as at 21 February 2021

Source: '"We're travelling on a one-way road to freedom" – PM', BBC News, 22 February 2021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56149494?page=2; INQ000591903)

Tentative steps to remove restrictions

7.103. By early March 2021, the restrictions in Northern Ireland were leading to reduced case numbers. In the seven days between 5 and 11 March, 1,311 individuals tested positive for Covid-19 in Northern Ireland.259 INQ000065606_0004 As at 10 March, the number of Covid-19- positive inpatients in Northern Ireland stood at 169.260 INQ000065606_0006 para 12 The intensive care unit position was a matter for concern. The standard funded position was for 72 intensive care unit beds – as at 10 March, the number of critically ill patients stood at 91 (of whom 29 were Covid-19 positive).261 INQ000065606_0007 para 13 The rolling average number of daily deaths in Northern Ireland was 4 on 9 March.262 INQ000065606_0005 para 10

7.104. By 3 March 2021, the most recent estimate of R in Wales was between 0.7 and 0.9.263 INQ000066445_0002 The number of people in hospital with confirmed Covid-19 continued to decrease but remained high with "approximately 600 beds occupied".264 INQ000066445_0002 Intensive care unit occupancy continued to decrease, but there were still two to four Covid-19 admissions daily. The Welsh Cabinet decided that, from 13 March, the stay at home restrictions would be replaced with 'Stay Local' rules.265 INQ000022529; INQ000066445_0002 This would allow people to travel within their local area, using a distance of five miles as a "rule of thumb".266 'Stay local: Wales takes first steps out of lockdown', Welsh Government, 12 March 2021 (https://www.gov.wales/stay-local-wales-takes-first-steps-out-of-lockdown; INQ000054847_0002)

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This reflected earlier advice from Dr Atherton that "a staggered approach to the lifting of restrictions would allow better monitoring of the impact on the spread of the virus on the specific easements", particularly in light of the Alpha variant.267 INQ000022529 A few days later, the Welsh Government published the Coronavirus Control Plan: Revised

Alert Levels in Wales (March 2021), which stated:

" [A] wholesale jump from alert level four to alert level three at this time would have endangered the significant progress we have made to date."268 Coronavirus Control Plan: Revised Alert Levels in Wales (March 2021), Welsh Government, March 2021, p17 (https://www.gov. wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-03/coronavirus-control-plan-revised-alert-levels-in-wales-march-2021.pdf; INQ000066069)

7.105. On 16 March 2021, among discussions about the lifting of the 'stay at home' order, it was proposed to the Scottish Cabinet that, during the pre-election period, there would be a need for continuing collective decision-making at ministerial level in relation to the management of the pandemic.269 INQ000214489 It was agreed, provided decisions remained consistent with Scotland's Strategic Framework Update and the indicative timetable, to delegate decision-making to the First Minister, supported by the Gold Command group of key ministers and input from the Chief Medical Officer for Scotland, as well as other advisers and officials. The Cabinet agreed, and it was later announced that the stay at home order would be lifted on 2 April 2021 in favour of a 'Stay Local' order within local authority areas.270 INQ000214489_0007 para 20(a) Hairdressers and garden centres would reopen on 5 April. It was planned that the Stay Local order would be lifted on 26 April in favour of a 'Stay within Scotland' order, at which time gyms and tourist accommodation would also be allowed to reopen.

7.106. In Northern Ireland, the eighth review of the restrictions took place on 16 March 2021. An Executive Paper from Mr Swann noted that, in the period after 16 March, there were two events that would traditionally see increased social contact: St Patrick's Day (17 March) and Easter (4 April) and cautioned:

" We do not wish to undo the good work following the difficult recovery from the relaxations around the Christmas period, and to ease the restrictions now before Easter, allowing inter-household gatherings would put us at significant risk of falling further backwards."271 INQ000065606_0020 paras 56, 57

While the Executive Committee concluded that the existing restrictions should remain in place, it agreed a limited number of amendments.272 INQ000048521_0003-0004 para 10 From 1 April 2021, ten people from two households (including children under twelve) could undertake outdoor sporting activities and up to six people from two households could meet outdoors in a private dwelling (increasing to ten people from two households from

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12 April). Subject to ratification by the Executive Committee in the week after the

Easter weekend, it was agreed that the requirement to 'stay at home unless you have a reasonable excuse' provision would be removed.273 INQ000048521_0003-0004 para 10

7.107. On 26 March 2021, the Welsh Government announced the removal of the Stay Local provisions in favour of an "interim all-Wales travel area … Until 12 April, people will need a reasonable excuse to travel into or out of Wales."274 INQ000023284_0001 By 29 March, the Welsh Cabinet was told that the number of people with confirmed Covid-19 in hospital was continuing to decrease.275 INQ000022532 The Cabinet agreed that non-essential retail and close-contact services would reopen from 12 April. The evidence presented to the Cabinet justified this easing of restrictions.

7.108. The UK government announced that, from 9 April 2021, everyone in England would be able to access two rapid Covid-19 tests twice a week.276 'New campaign urges public to get tested twice a week', Department of Health and Social Care, 9 April 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-campaign-urges-public-to-get-tested-twice-a-week; INQ000234854_0001) The Welsh Government announced that a similar initiative would be in place for those unable to work from home, along with an extension of testing in schools to all pupils in Year 7 and above from 16 April.277 'Free lateral flow Covid tests in Wales for those unable to work at home', BBC News, 14 April 2021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-56746340; INQ000584981) The Scottish Government confirmed that lateral flow testing would be made available to everyone in Scotland from 26 April.278 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's statement – 20 April 2021', Scottish Government, 20 April 2021 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-update-first-ministers-statement-20-april-2021; INQ000354330) On 28 April, the Department of Health (Northern Ireland) announced a further expansion of the workforce testing programme to organisations with 10 or more employees who could not work from home.279 'Further extension to Workforce Covid-19 testing programme', Department of Health, 28 April 2021 (https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/news/further-extension-workforce-covid-19-testing-programme; INQ000348844)

7.109. On 12 April 2021, the UK government implemented Step 2 of its COVID-19 Response – Spring 2021 roadmap, which included reopening non-essential retail, personal care and outdoor hospitality settings, as well as allowing for an increased number of visitors to care homes (from one to two).280 INQ000255836_0178 para 616(b); COVID-19 Response – Spring 2021, HM Government, February 2021 (https://assets.publishing. service.gov.uk/media/6033cfdae90e076607c1bf18/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf; INQ000185087)

7.110. In Scotland, the Stay Local order was lifted early on 16 April 2021, allowing up to six people from six different households to meet outside again. People were still not permitted to stay overnight outside their council area, and the advice remained for people to shop within their council area whenever possible.281 'Covid in Scotland: Families and friends reunite as restrictions ease', BBC News, 16 April 2021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56765188; INQ000357550)

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7.111. On 19 April 2021, Dr Atherton advised that the situation in Wales was "stable" and that "[t]esting data indicated that positivity for Covid-19 continued to fall slowly, but consistently".282 INQ000129892_0002 para 2.3 The Welsh Cabinet agreed that outdoor hospitality would reopen from 26 April, and its intention was a complete move to Alert Level 3 by 3 May 2021.283 INQ000129892_0003 paras 2.6, 2.8, 2.10

7.112. By 23 April 2021, R in Scotland had fallen for the first time in four weeks, dropping from between 0.8 and 1.0 to between 0.7 and 0.9.284 'Covid: Scotland's R number falls for first time in four weeks', BBC News, 23 April 2021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56863783; INQ000357762) A few days later, all of Scotland moved to Level 3 restrictions as non-essential shops, gyms, swimming pools, pubs, restaurants and cafes were allowed to reopen, while travel between Scotland and the rest of the UK was also permitted again.285 'Covid in Scotland: Shops, gyms, pools and pubs reopen after lockdown', BBC News, 26 April 2021 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56878753; INQ000357672)

7.113. On 30 April 2021, a number of relaxations took effect in Northern Ireland, as agreed by the Executive Committee on 15 April:

  • fifteen people from no more than three households could gather in outdoor domestic settings;
  • retail reopened;
  • licensed and unlicensed premises were permitted to open outdoors with a maximum of six people from two households;
  • members of a household could stay overnight in self-contained tourist accommodation;
  • curfews on takeaways and off-licences were removed; and
  • individual activities in gyms, swimming pools and other large venues were permitted.286 INQ000048525_0004-0005 para 18