May 2020: Planning for lifting lockdown

¶5.67. By May 2020, the Vaccine Taskforce had been established and the Department of Health and Social Care had set up the Therapeutics Taskforce.¹⁵⁸¹⁵⁸ INQ000232194_0091 para 377; Technical Report on the Covid-19 Pandemic in the UK, Department of Health and Social Care, 1 December 2022, pp321-322 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technical-report-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-uk; INQ000101642) Although Covid-19 vaccines were ultimately rolled out from December 2020 (as is being examined in detail in Module 4: Vaccines and therapeutics), there was considerable uncertainty at this stage about if and when an effective vaccine would be developed. Decisions had to be taken therefore in the context of a deadly virus with no pharmaceutical tools available to stop its spread.

¶5.68. The UK government's Covid-19 Strategy Ministerial Group decided on 1 May 2020 that an announcement should be made recommending the voluntary use of cloth face coverings by members of the public.¹⁵⁹¹⁵⁹ INQ000088527_0001-0002 paras 5, 7

¶5.69. On 2 May 2020, the Cabinet Office advised Mr Johnson that he should set out a roadmap for easing the lockdown.¹⁶⁰¹⁶⁰ INQ000183928; INQ000183927; INQ000255836_0101-0102 paras 377, 378 This note was the origin of the UK government's May 2020 Roadmap.¹⁶¹¹⁶¹ Our Plan to Rebuild: The UK Government's COVID-19 Recovery Strategy, HM Government, May 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy; INQ000198892); 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 10 May 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 10 May 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-address-to-the-nation-on-coronavirus-10-may-2020; INQ000065338)Show full note The Cabinet Office note advised Mr Johnson to announce the following week:

a move from the Stay Home messaging to a new 'Stay Alert' message;
that from 11 May 2020, those who could not work from home should return to work and unlimited outdoor exercise would be permitted; and
that from the start of June 2020, retail and schools would begin to reopen.¹⁶²¹⁶² INQ000183927_0008-0009

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¶5.70. The key elements of the draft roadmap, discussed further below, were agreed that evening at a meeting between Mr Johnson, the Quad and Professors Whitty and Vallance.¹⁶³¹⁶³ INQ000255836_0102-0103 para 380; INQ000183926; INQ000302484_0026 para 96 They discussed a "shift from the current stay at home messaging, to balance continued vigilance and gradual easing", a phased reopening of schools and "an aspirational date for the earliest possible re-opening of non-essential retail".¹⁶⁴¹⁶⁴ INQ000236585_0001

¶5.71. At a meeting on 4 May 2020, Mr Sunak and Mr Johnson discussed non-essential retail reopening in mid-May 2020, schools in early June and hospitality in July.¹⁶⁵¹⁶⁵ INQ000236585_0001-0002

¶5.72. On 5 May 2020, SAGE considered the potential impact of the steps in the draft roadmap on transmission of Covid-19. It advised that Step 1 was "unlikely" to push R above 1.¹⁶⁶¹⁶⁶ INQ000061541_0004 para 21 Step 2 (reopening of primary schools and non-essential retail) was "not likely to push 'R' above 1 but this is dependent on having an effective test and trace programme" in place.¹⁶⁷¹⁶⁷ INQ000061541_0004 para 22 The lifting of further restrictions beyond this, however, was "highly likely" to push R above 1.¹⁶⁸¹⁶⁸ INQ000061541_0004 para 23 The minutes of its meeting on 7 May noted:

" As steps are taken to ease the lockdown, each step needs to be accompanied by very clear communication of the continued public health justification for remaining restrictions."¹⁶⁹¹⁶⁹ INQ000061542_0002 para 5

The second review

¶5.73. The second review of the lockdown restrictions was due by 7 May 2020 in England, Scotland and Wales and by 9 May in Northern Ireland.

¶5.74. On 5 May 2020, the Scottish Cabinet agreed that the time did not appear right for any substantive relaxation in lockdown restrictions in Scotland.¹⁷⁰¹⁷⁰ INQ000214723_0003 para 11(a) There were estimated to be around 26,000 people in Scotland who were infected and R lay somewhere between 0.7 and 1.0 (with a best estimate of 0.8).¹⁷¹¹⁷¹ INQ000214723_0002 para 4 This was considered to be "insufficiently low to be able to say, with confidence, that the outbreak was under control or to make anything other than marginal changes to restrictions".¹⁷²¹⁷² INQ000214723_0002 para 4 The Scottish Cabinet also had growing concerns about "a lack of information about what the UK Government was planning, despite repeated requests for updates".¹⁷³¹⁷³ INQ000214723_0003 para 10 It was noted:

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" Notwithstanding the advantages of UK-wide alignment (provided the evidence supported it), Scottish Ministers had an overarching responsibility to reach evidence-based decisions that were right for Scotland, and that Scottish Ministers' legal responsibilities under the relevant legislation could not be outsourced."¹⁷⁴¹⁷⁴ INQ000214723_0003 para 10

¶5.75. As at 6 May 2020, 3,934 laboratory-confirmed cases and 418 deaths associated with Covid-19 had been reported in Northern Ireland.¹⁷⁵¹⁷⁵ INQ000065566_0006 para 16 David Sterling (later Sir David Sterling), Head of the Northern Ireland Civil Service and Permanent Secretary to The Executive Office from June 2017 to August 2020, provided ministers with two options for a roadmap setting out the future lifting of restrictions. The first was a "a three stage illustration of the steps to relaxation of restrictions against six key areas of daily activity", while the second was a "higher level" five stages proposed by the Department of Health (Northern Ireland).¹⁷⁶¹⁷⁶ INQ000289218

¶5.76. At its second periodic review on 7 May 2020, the Northern Ireland Executive Committee was advised that case numbers in Northern Ireland continued to rise but at a slower rate – the curve was flattening.¹⁷⁷¹⁷⁷ INQ000065566_0006 para 16 If R were to rise above 1, there were two options: to accept a significant increase in cases and deaths; or to reimpose restrictions for four to six weeks.¹⁷⁸¹⁷⁸ INQ000065566_0008 para 27 Professor Young described R as on a "knife edge".¹⁷⁹¹⁷⁹ INQ000065724_0006 The Executive Committee agreed that ministers should provide further comments and a revised paper should be circulated for consideration the following week.¹⁸⁰¹⁸⁰ INQ000048464_0005 para 13 The Executive Committee decided to keep the regulations in place.¹⁸¹¹⁸¹ INQ000048464_0003 para 8 At its next meeting on 11 May, further amendments were made to the roadmap paper, which was subsequently agreed by the First Minister and deputy First Minister later that day.¹⁸²¹⁸² INQ000048465_0003-0004 paras 9-10

¶5.77. The second and subsequent 21-day reviews in Wales were undertaken in Welsh Cabinet meetings. The Cabinet considered on 7 May 2020 that "[t]oo early or extensive easement of restrictions could lead to a return of exponential growth of viral transmission".¹⁸³¹⁸³ INQ000048792_0002 para 1.6 However:

" [T]here were concerns about the indirect harms that arose from lockdown measures, and the potential for disproportionate harms to both socio– economically disadvantaged and younger people."¹⁸⁴¹⁸⁴ INQ000048792_0002 para 1.7

¶5.78. In considering evidence from SAGE that infection rates had "dropped to between

¶0.6 – 0.8" in Wales, the Welsh Cabinet agreed to some minor changes to the restrictions.¹⁸⁵¹⁸⁵ INQ000048792_0005 para 1.29 Mr Drakeford held a press conference to confirm that "the stay-athome regulations will remain in place until the next review date" but that "people will be able to go outside to exercise more than once a day, but we want people to stay local".¹⁸⁶¹⁸⁶ INQ000090560_0002

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¶5.79. Mr Johnson met with the Quad on 6 May 2020 to discuss the second review of the lockdown restrictions due to take place the following day and to discuss again the plan for the easing of the lockdown in the coming months. They agreed to present to the Cabinet that the formal review indicated that existing measures remained necessary.¹⁸⁷¹⁸⁷ INQ000249584 The following day, the UK Cabinet was, in effect, asked to approve a decision that had already been made by Mr Johnson and the Quad.

Easing restrictions

¶5.80. At the same Quad meeting on 6 May 2020, it was also agreed that the first step in easing restrictions should be a direction to return to work for those who could not work from home. The second step of the reopening of non-essential retail and phased reopening of schools was targeted for 1 June 2020, although secondary schools would not reopen until September 2020 at the earliest. An "aspirational" date of 4 July 2020 was agreed for reopening hospitality.¹⁸⁸¹⁸⁸ INQ000249584 The UK Cabinet agreed on 7 May that lockdown restrictions should continue and discussed the general approach proposed to ease the lockdown in England.¹⁸⁹¹⁸⁹ INQ000183933_0004-0008; INQ000185094

¶5.81. On 10 May 2020, the day before the May 2020 Roadmap was published, the UK Cabinet was informed of the details of the plans for easing the first lockdown in England, as well as plans to introduce travel quarantine.¹⁹⁰¹⁹⁰ INQ000232194_0095 para 391; INQ000250229_0034 para 130; INQ000268041_0047 para 149 The Cabinet was again asked to approve a decision that had already been made by Mr Johnson and the Quad.

¶5.82. Mr Johnson then chaired a COBR meeting, attended by the leaders of the devolved administrations.¹⁹¹¹⁹¹ INQ000083828_0001-0003 A paper was presented setting out the steps in the draft roadmap that the UK government planned to take in easing the lockdown in England.¹⁹²¹⁹² INQ000083782 Mr Gove had outlined the likely content of the roadmap to the First Ministers of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland three days before its publication.¹⁹³¹⁹³ INQ000256846 At COBR, the discussion recognised:

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" that it may be appropriate for difference in approach/speed depending on the scientific evidence but messaging was crucial and should not undermine the Four Nations approach or stay at home messaging".¹⁹⁴¹⁹⁴ INQ000083828_0005–0006 para 6

¶COBR agreed the importance of:

" continuing a UK-wide four nations approach to controlling the spread of the virus … acknowledging the spread of the disease may mean differentiations in approach".¹⁹⁵¹⁹⁵ INQ000083828_0007

¶COBR also outlined plans for the introduction of travel quarantine at the UK border and for the establishment of a new Joint Biosecurity Centre that would analyse data on Covid-19 infection rates across the UK.¹⁹⁶¹⁹⁶ INQ000083828_0007 The centre was subsequently established in May 2020 to provide a single point of public health analysis in order to advise the Prime Minister, UK Cabinet and others.¹⁹⁷¹⁹⁷ Gavin Freeguard 10 October 2023 177/16-22 This also clarified whose role it was to collate pandemic-related health data.¹⁹⁸¹⁹⁸ INQ000238826_0020 para 48 The Joint Biosecurity Centre became a command and control centre for the data received from health services across the

¶UK, the Office for National Statistics and technology companies.¹⁹⁹¹⁹⁹ INQ000147810_0029-0030 para 90

¶5.83. Mr Johnson also confirmed to COBR the UK government's intention to change its messaging to 'Stay Alert', although he also said that its core messaging would remain that the public should stay at home.²⁰⁰²⁰⁰ INQ000083828_0006 para 7 Mr Johnson suggested that divergence of messaging across the UK would be "fine as the leaders of each part of the UK needed to tailor their message to the individual circumstances that they faced".²⁰¹²⁰¹ INQ000088983_0002

¶5.84. The devolved administrations retained the express message to stay at home.²⁰²²⁰² 'First Minister of Wales' message to the people of Wales', Welsh Government, 10 May 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/first-minister-wales-message-people-wales; INQ000090561); INQ000083136_0002 This was the first point of substantive divergence in the responses in the four nations. Mr Drakeford did not agree to the change to Stay Alert because the Welsh Government had "no prior notice, no sharing of the basis on which the change had been made, no ability to explain to me what the new message was meant to convey to anybody".²⁰³²⁰³ Mark Drakeford 13 March 2024 110/8-111/23; see also INQ000273747_0030 para 94; INQ000216537 Baroness Foster explained that the message was not changed in Northern Ireland, in part due to the higher R number in Northern Ireland at the time.²⁰⁴²⁰⁴ INQ000083136_0002; INQ000255838_0030 para 110 Ms O'Neill reflected that the Stay Alert messaging was also "less clear and more abstract".²⁰⁵²⁰⁵ INQ000273783_0031 para 159 Ms Sturgeon considered that the change in message was premature, since:

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" data … suggested the R number remained high and, at that time, was possibly higher in Scotland than in other parts of the UK. Given that we still lacked effective treatments and vaccines, I feared that making such a change at that time would cause infection rates to increase again and that this would cause more severe illness, put more pressure on the NHS and, ultimately, cost lives."²⁰⁶²⁰⁶ INQ000339033_0027 para 63

¶5.85. In answering questions at the Covid-19 briefing (before Mr Johnson had made his announcement) about why the Scottish Government was not taking the same decision as the UK government, Ms Sturgeon was critical of the UK government's new core public message. She said that she did not know what 'Stay Alert' meant and:

" For Scotland right now, given the fragility of the progress we have made, given the critical point we are at, it would be catastrophic for me to drop the 'stay at home' message, which is why I am not prepared to do it … particularly in favour of a message that is vague and imprecise."²⁰⁷²⁰⁷ 'Nicola Sturgeon leads chorus of disapproval over Johnson's "stay alert" message', The Guardian, 10 May 2020 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/nicola-sturgeon-leads-criticism-of-uks-new-stay-alert-coronavirus-lockdown- advice; INQ000351048)

¶5.86. Ms Sturgeon told the Inquiry that she did not set out to be explicitly critical of Mr Johnson but acknowledged that it was "inevitable" that her comments would be interpreted in that way.²⁰⁸²⁰⁸ INQ000339033_0028 para 64 She described this as "the first point of public disagreement" and said:

" The only way I could have avoided this was to quietly acquiesce in a decision that I thought to be misguided. That would have been a serious abdication of my responsibilities to the Scottish people."²⁰⁹²⁰⁹ INQ000339033_0027-0028 paras 63, 64

¶5.87. Ms Sturgeon's comments at the Covid-19 briefing were not well received within the UK government. Mr Gove considered her comments "unhelpful" and "premature".²¹⁰²¹⁰ INQ000371583_0018-0019 para 58 He said that he was "concerned about the presentational impact these interactions had on the public, and the impact it may have on public adherence to measures and regulations".²¹¹²¹¹ INQ000371583_0018-0019 para 59

¶5.88. That evening, Mr Johnson announced the publication of the UK government's May 2020 Roadmap.²¹²²¹² Our Plan to Rebuild: The UK Government's COVID-19 Recovery Strategy, HM Government, May 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/ government/publications/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy; INQ000198892); 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 10 May 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 10 May 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-address-to-the-nation-on-coronavirus-10-may-2020; INQ000065338)Show full note He explained that its provisional dates were conditional on meeting the five tests set out by Mr Raab on 16 April 2020, which would be supported by a new Covid Alert System run by the new Joint Biosecurity Centre.²¹³²¹³ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 10 May 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 10 May 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-address-to-the-nation-on-coronavirus-10-may-2020; INQ000065338_0004) Mr Johnson also outlined the new public health messaging for England: "stay alert, control the virus and save lives".²¹⁴²¹⁴ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 10 May 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 10 May 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-address-to-the-nation-on-coronavirus-10-may-2020; INQ000065338_0007) That same day, Professor Vallance recorded in his evening notes:

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¶" I have clearly said that the proposal to open as much as possible will push R > 1

¶Chris and I both made it very clear that we think speed and timescale too fast."²¹⁵²¹⁵ INQ000273901_0047. Professor Vallance recorded his personal views in his 'evening notes' on an almost daily basis during the pandemic response. These were private notes kept by him during a period of "enormous stress" in which he reflected on the day's events as a "day-by-day release valve" (INQ000238826_0157-0159, paras 471-480).

¶5.89. The May 2020 Roadmap confirmed the following provisional dates for the easing of the first lockdown in England:

Step 1, to commence on 13 May: Workers who could not work from home should go to work, unlimited outdoor exercise would be permitted and face coverings should be worn in enclosed spaces where social distancing was not possible (although this was not mandatory).²¹⁶²¹⁶ There was never in fact any legal limit on the number of times outdoor exercise could be taken in England as there had been in Wales – see Regulation 8 of The Health Protection (Coronavirus Restrictions) (Wales) Regulations 2020 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2020/353/contents) and Regulation 6 of The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/contents).Show full note It explained that the benefit of face coverings was to "protect against inadvertent transmission of the disease to others if you have it asymptomatically", rather than to protect the wearer.²¹⁷²¹⁷ Our Plan to Rebuild: The UK Government's COVID-19 Recovery Strategy, HM Government, May 2020, p27 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy; INQ000198892) Members of the public were encouraged to make cloth face coverings at home to protect the supply of medical masks for frontline staff.²¹⁸²¹⁸ Our Plan to Rebuild: The UK Government's COVID-19 Recovery Strategy, HM Government, May 2020, p27 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy; INQ000198892)
Step 2, to commence no earlier than 1 June 2020: There would be a phased return for early years settings and primary schools and the reopening of non‑essential retail.
Step 3, to commence no earlier than 4 July 2020: Reopening of places of worship, leisure facilities, hospitality, and businesses and premises would take place.

¶No further steps were set out beyond 4 July.²¹⁹²¹⁹ Our Plan to Rebuild: The UK Government's COVID-19 Recovery Strategy, HM Government, May 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy; INQ000198892)

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¶Figure 16: UK government steps of adjustment to current social distancing measures

¶Source: Our Plan to Rebuild: The UK Government's COVID-19 Recovery Strategy, HM Government, May 2020, p21, Figure 6 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/our-plan-to-rebuild-the-uk-governments-covid-19-recovery-strategy; INQ000198892)

¶5.90. Helen MacNamara, Deputy Cabinet Secretary from January 2019 to February 2021, said that the May 2020 Roadmap "created the framework for all subsequent decision making" in England and that it "probably was the most useful thing that was produced in those early months".²²⁰²²⁰ INQ000273841_0065-0066 para 131 Ms MacNamara had raised a number of concerns about the content of the first draft shared on 6 May 2020, noting that there had not been "any debate or advice about the policy or choices".²²¹²²¹ INQ000308305_0001

¶5.91. The May 2020 Roadmap was published on 11 May, a full seven weeks after the first UK-wide lockdown had been announced on 23 March 2020. This was too long and reflected the lack of advance planning for the implementation of stringent restrictions and therefore how those restrictions might later be eased. Lord Sedwill told the Inquiry that there had been "intensive" debate about the May 2020 Roadmap. He said that it was developed:

" through the course of April, when the Prime Minister was away, under the leadership of the First Secretary [Mr Raab] in a series of ministerial meetings known as the quad, the chairs of the MIGs [Ministerial Implementation Groups], with some input from other ministers".²²²²²² Mark Sedwill 8 November 2023 97/3-98/7

¶Stuart Glassborow (Deputy Principal Private Secretary to the Prime Minister from May 2019 to May 2022) described it as being "led by the Cabinet Office, co-ordinating across other departments", with the Quad working on the "key elements … over several meetings" before agreeing it on 2 May 2020.²²³²²³ INQ000302484_0026 paras 96, 97 Ms MacNamara said the May 2020 Roadmap "was probably read by fewer than 30 people before it was published", due to concerns about leaking.²²⁴²²⁴ INQ000273841_0065 para 130 Despite its significance, only a small group of advisers and decision-makers were involved in its development or scrutiny.

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¶Wider scrutiny – for example, by the UK Cabinet – would have been beneficial to ensure its proposals and their potential impacts on health, the economy and society had been robustly tested.

¶5.92. On 13 May 2020, Step 1 of the May 2020 Roadmap commenced in England. Amendments were made to the law to allow people to leave their homes to exercise with one or more members of their own household or with one person from another household.²²⁵²²⁵ Regulation 2 of The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (Amendment) (No. 2) Regulations 2020 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/500/contents/made) Those who could not work from home were encouraged to return to work.

¶5.93. On 15 May 2020, the Welsh Government published Unlocking Our Society and Economy: Continuing the Conversation.²²⁶²²⁶ Unlocking Our Society and Economy: Continuing the Conversation, Welsh Government, 15 May 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/ default/files/publications/2020-05/unlocking-our-society-and-economy-continuing-the-conversation.pdf; INQ000320855) This was intended to build on the April 2020 Leading Wales out of the Coronavirus Pandemic: A Framework for Recovery.²²⁷²²⁷ Leading Wales out of the Coronavirus Pandemic: A Framework for Recovery, Welsh Government, April 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2020-04/leading-wales-out-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic.pdf; INQ000349353) It set out a 'traffic light' guide for easing the lockdown and provided an overview of restrictions – 'lockdown', 'red', 'amber' and 'green' (of which 'green' represented the least restrictive measures). It specifically referenced the UK government's May 2020 Roadmap and stated that the challenges presented by Covid-19 were "the same as those which confront the rest of the United Kingdom".²²⁸²²⁸ Unlocking Our Society and Economy: Continuing the Conversation, Welsh Government, 15 May 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/ default/files/publications/2020-05/unlocking-our-society-and-economy-continuing-the-conversation.pdf; INQ000320855_0003) Unlike the UK government's plan, no dates were indicated for the relaxation of restrictions. However, the document clearly outlined the reasons why the Welsh Government believed it could "only move forward cautiously" and confirmed that "we have to reduce the number of new cases by keeping the transmission rate (R) below 1".²²⁹²²⁹ Unlocking Our Society and Economy: Continuing the Conversation, Welsh Government, 15 May 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/ default/files/publications/2020-05/unlocking-our-society-and-economy-continuing-the-conversation.pdf; INQ000320855_0003-0004)

¶5.94. The Northern Ireland Executive had published its Coronavirus: Executive Approach to Decision-Making on 12 May 2020.²³⁰²³⁰ Coronavirus: Executive Approach to Decision-Making, Northern Ireland Executive, May 2020 (https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov. uk/sites/default/files/publications/execoffice/execuitveour-approach-to-decision-making.pdf; INQ000137371) No restrictions were removed at this point and the Executive Committee declined to set provisional dates for the relaxation of specific restrictions. Professor McBride explained that the approach should be guided by "data not dates" and that any consideration of further relaxations should only be given once the impact on community transmission of previous relaxations could be fully assessed.²³¹²³¹ INQ000421704_0164 para 361 The Coronavirus: Executive Approach to Decision-Making therefore set out a number of key guiding principles for the regular reviews and consideration of easing restrictions, including the need to control transmission when there was a reasonable prospect of maintaining R at or below 1 and protecting healthcare capacity.

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¶5.95. On 21 May 2020, the Scottish Government published Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the Crisis.²³²²³² Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the Crisis, Scottish Government, 21 May 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/ coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making-scotlands-route-map-through-out-crisis; INQ000131072) This was a more detailed, evidence-led, four-phase plan, laying out the order in which restrictions would be relaxed and the criteria that would need to be met to move out of each phase, consistent with the Scottish Government's cautious approach to removing restrictions. Details of plans for Phase 1 included allowing people to meet outside with people from one other household from 28 May 2020, subject to the number of new cases of Covid-19 continuing to fall. Plans also included schools reopening on 11 August 2020, with a "blended model" of part-time study at school combined with some learning at home.²³³²³³ Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the Crisis, Scottish Government, 21 May 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/ coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making-scotlands-route-map-through-out-crisis; INQ000131072)

¶5.96. The devolved administrations proposed, in broad terms, more cautious approaches to easing the lockdown than the one announced by the UK government in England.

The third review

¶5.97. The third review of lockdown restrictions was due to take place by 28 May 2020 in England, Scotland and Wales and by 30 May in Northern Ireland. In England, in line with the May 2020 Roadmap, Step 2 was due to be implemented no earlier than 1 June 2020. On 18 May, the UK government announced that everyone in the UK with symptoms of Covid-19 would now be eligible to book a test.²³⁴²³⁴ 'Everyone in the United Kingdom with symptoms now eligible for coronavirus tests', Department of Health and Social Care, 18 May 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/everyone-in-the-united-kingdom-with-symptoms-now-eligible-for-coronavirus-tests; INQ000497453)

¶5.98. On 21 May 2020, SAGE advised that test, trace and isolate could quickly be overwhelmed by new cases if the restrictions were eased at a time when there was a relatively high level of incidence and prevalence of Covid-19 in the population.²³⁵²³⁵ INQ000061546_0002 para 3 The Covid-19 Dashboard dated 21 May 2020 recorded that laboratories were processing around 41,099 tests a day.²³⁶²³⁶ INQ000283895_0015 SAGE stated:

" [T]he lower the number of infections at the point when measures are lifted, the better this would be in terms of managing the epidemic. Not only would there be fewer people being infected, becoming ill and dying but: contact tracing and testing capacities are less likely to be overwhelmed."²³⁷²³⁷ INQ000061546_0002-0003 para 21

¶5.99. SAGE warned that if test, trace and isolate was overwhelmed, "re-imposition of significant NPIs [non-pharmaceutical interventions]" would be "the only way to regain control of the epidemic".²³⁸²³⁸ INQ000061546_0003 para 21 Further, in terms of the implementation of Step 2 of the

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¶May 2020 Roadmap planned for 1 June 2020 in England, SAGE considered modelling produced by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) of various easing scenarios and advised in relation to further easings that "[w]ith schools closed and R 0.7-1.0, as now, there is little headroom with no contact tracing in place".²³⁹²³⁹ INQ000061546_0002 para 13 Additionally, the figures it was considering did not take into account any changes that had resulted from the easings in Step 1.²⁴⁰²⁴⁰ INQ000061546_0002 para 13 SAGE was strongly of the view that it was too risky to make any further easements on 1 June, especially when

¶"track and trace" would only just be getting up and running at that stage. In its view, it was better to wait a further month.²⁴¹²⁴¹ INQ000088056

¶5.100. Mr Johnson informed the UK Cabinet on 21 May 2020 that it was unlikely that the full easing of restrictions planned for 1 June 2020 could be implemented, given the impact this would have on R.²⁴²²⁴² INQ000089051_0009 That same day, Professor Vallance recorded in his evening notes:

" PM talked about caution etc and then said, 'Yes, we must go ahead with breezy confidence and get this country going again.' Both CW [Professor Whitty] and I rather shocked by breezy confidence."²⁴³²⁴³ INQ000273901_ 0062

¶5.101. A few days later, on 25 May 2020, the UK Cabinet considered a proposal that Step 2 of the May 2020 Roadmap be implemented in two phases, with early years settings and certain year groups returning to school on 1 June 2020. Some other year groups and the remainder of non-essential retail would follow on 15 June.²⁴⁴²⁴⁴ INQ000185076 This timetable was approved.²⁴⁵²⁴⁵ INQ000089074_0009 Professor Vallance recorded in his evening notes that Mr Johnson "seems very bullish and wants to have everything released sooner and more extremely than we would".²⁴⁶²⁴⁶ INQ000273901_ 0066

¶5.102. On 25 May 2020, Mr Cummings held a press conference in the garden of 10 Downing Street in which he made a statement concerning his trip to Durham and Barnard Castle on 12 April 2020. He also answered questions about whether this had breached the lockdown rules.²⁴⁷²⁴⁷ 'Coronavirus: I don't regret what I did, says Dominic Cummings', BBC News, 25 May 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52800595; INQ000651561) The impact of alleged rule-breaking by advisers and decision-makers is examined in Chapter 11: Government decision-making, in Volume II.

¶5.103. On 26 May 2020, Professors Whitty and Vallance, Professor (later Dame) Jenny Harries (Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England from July 2019 to March 2021) and Professor (later Sir) Jonathan Van-Tam (Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England from October 2017 to March 2022) wrote to Simon Case (later Lord Case), Permanent

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¶Secretary at 10 Downing Street from May to September 2020. They warned of the risk of easing restrictions in the absence of a central body with oversight of the cumulative impact of cross-government decisions.²⁴⁸²⁴⁸ INQ000137216

¶5.104. Mr Johnson was advised by Cabinet Office officials on 27 May 2020 that the rules in England should be changed at the third review to allow gatherings of up to six people outdoors, while maintaining restrictions on gatherings indoors.²⁴⁹²⁴⁹ INQ000183937_0008; INQ000255836_0106 para 395 He also received a paper outlining decisions to be made in relation to the proposed reopening on 1 June 2020 of schools and to non-essential retail, social contact, shielding and outdoor spaces.²⁵⁰²⁵⁰ INQ000183936; INQ000255836_0106 para 395

¶5.105. On 28 May 2020, Mr Johnson announced that, from 1 June 2020, up to six people would be allowed to meet outside while observing social distancing rules. He also confirmed the reopening of nurseries, early years settings and years one and six would go ahead on 1 June, with some other year groups returning from 15 June. The reopening of most non-essential retail would be delayed until 15 June.²⁵¹²⁵¹ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 28 May 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 28 May 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-press-conference-statement-on-the-five-tests-28-may-2020; INQ000065357); INQ000255836_0106-0107 para 396 That same day, Ms Sturgeon announced the move in Scotland to Phase 1 of Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the Crisis, beginning on 29 May 2020.²⁵²²⁵² Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the Crisis, Scottish Government, 21 May 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/ coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making-scotlands-route-map-through-out-crisis; INQ000131072); 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech 28 May 2020', Scottish Government, 28 May 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus- covid-19-update-first-ministers-speech-28-2020; INQ000369675)Show full note With deaths and new cases having fallen in Wales and fewer people in critical care beds, the Welsh Cabinet agreed to change its messaging to 'Stay Local' (using within five miles of home as a "rule of thumb") and agreed that two households could meet outside.²⁵³²⁵³ INQ000090566_0001 These changes were announced on 29 May and came into effect on 1 June 2020.²⁵⁴²⁵⁴ INQ000048926_0002-0003 paras 1.4-1.5, 1.9-1.10; Jeremy Miles 12 March 2024 179/2-15; INQ000090566

¶5.106. An Executive Paper dated 28 May 2020 from the Department of Health (Northern Ireland) recommended that the existing restrictions in Northern Ireland be amended to allow marriages and civil partnerships to be conducted outdoors (subject to a limit of 10 people), the opening of outdoor sports courts and the conduct of business by outdoor, non-food retailers and certain larger, non-food retail outlets.²⁵⁵²⁵⁵ INQ000065586_0010-0011 para 42 The Executive Paper recommended that the proposed amendments ought not to take effect until the week commencing 8 June 2020, subject to R remaining at or below

¶0.9 at that time. It further advised that the matter should be discussed at an Executive Committee meeting on 4 June, at which time a final decision could be made.²⁵⁶²⁵⁶ INQ000065586_0014 para 61 The proposed course was agreed by the Executive Committee at its meeting of the same day.²⁵⁷²⁵⁷ INQ000048469_0003 para 8 At that meeting, Mr Swann advised that "we are in position to ease restrictions as agreed", noting that R was 0.7/0.9.²⁵⁸²⁵⁸ INQ000065718_0002 Notes of the meeting indicate that Mr Swann also advised that Northern Ireland was "in a position to cope with 2nd surge" and that "if we are in position on 18 June … cd [could] move to next steps".²⁵⁹²⁵⁹ INQ000065718_0002 The Executive Committee confirmed that, in light of the rate of R at that time, the amendments previously considered at its meeting on 28 May should be implemented in the week commencing 8 June.²⁶⁰²⁶⁰ INQ000048471_0002 para 5

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¶5.107. Also in Northern Ireland, a decision to scale back the NI Hub (Northern Ireland's coordination centre) had been made a week earlier.²⁶¹²⁶¹ INQ000255317; INQ000417311 Similarly, the Civil Contingencies Group (Northern Ireland) was meeting less frequently.²⁶²²⁶² INQ000272088_0004; INQ000279225; INQ000449440_0110 para 304 The rationale for scaling back these arrangements was the downward trend in infection levels and the corresponding reduction of pressure on hospitals in Northern Ireland at that time.²⁶³²⁶³ INQ000438171_0019 para 83; INQ000449440_0110 para 304 By 29 May 2020, hospital admissions in Northern Ireland were the lowest they had been since March 2020.²⁶⁴²⁶⁴ INQ000430391_Tab 1

Organisational changes

¶5.108. As considered in more detail in Chapter 11: Government decision-making, in Volume II, a number of structural changes were also introduced around this time.

¶5.109. From 15 May 2020, the Covid-19 Strategy Ministerial Group meeting became known as the Covid-19 Dashboard meeting, also chaired by Mr Johnson.²⁶⁵²⁶⁵ INQ000255836_0211 para 719(d) The Ministerial Implementation Groups were disbanded on 28 May.²⁶⁶²⁶⁶ INQ000092893_0006 para 1.24 The Covid-19 Strategy Committee (Covid-S) and Covid-19 Operations Committee (Covid-O) were established to replace them.²⁶⁷²⁶⁷ INQ000087165 Mr Johnson was to chair Covid-S, which would consider strategy and first met on 4 June 2020.²⁶⁸²⁶⁸ INQ000183934_0005; INQ000250229_0035-0036 para 134; INQ000255836_0108 para 401 Covid-O would drive the policy and operational aspects of the response and was chaired by Mr Gove.²⁶⁹²⁶⁹ INQ000183934_0006 Its first meeting was on 29 May.²⁷⁰²⁷⁰ INQ000259848_0009 para 16(f)(ii)

¶5.110. Mr Johnson had been advised by Ms MacNamara and Mr Case that major decisions were still to be taken by the UK Cabinet.²⁷¹²⁷¹ INQ000183934_0002 A Joint Ministerial Committee was to be convened to "manage conversations with the DAs".²⁷²²⁷² INQ000183934_0003 para 6; see also INQ000255836_0098-0099 paras 367, 368 However, this was ultimately not convened.

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¶5.111. The Covid-19 Taskforce was created at the end of May 2020.²⁷³²⁷³ INQ000273841_0073 para 148; INQ000092893_0040 para 5.53; Simon Ridley 7 November 2023 39/15-19 It was initially led by Mr Case, who was therefore responsible for leading on advice for easing the first lockdown in England.²⁷⁴²⁷⁴ INQ000207294_0002-0003, 0019-0021 paras 1.5, 3.19; INQ000092893_0040 para 5.53 It was formed as a result of the recommendation in Ms MacNamara's review that a unit was required in the Cabinet Office to provide strategic leadership on the response and advise decision-makers on the development of strategy and the probable health, economic and societal consequences of any potential decision.²⁷⁵²⁷⁵ INQ000136763_0005 para 9; INQ000273841_0073 para 148; INQ000207294_0015-0016 paras 3.8.2, 3.11; Simon Ridley 7 November 2023 38/3-17; INQ000252914_0094 para 408; INQ000092893_0040 para 5.53; INQ000281724; INQ000302484_0034 para 130; INQ000092893_0040 para 5.54; Rishi Sunak 11 December 2023 19/22-20/5; INQ000248852_0002-0003 para 1.7 It served as the secretariat for Covid-S and Covid-O and commissioned the papers and agendas for their meetings.²⁷⁶²⁷⁶ INQ000255836_0214-0215 paras 721(f), 721(g); Simon Ridley 7 November 2023 40/15-20