June 2020: Reopening

June 2020: Reopening

¶5.112. On 1 June 2020, as announced, it became lawful for six people to meet outside in England. It remained illegal to meet indoors with anyone from a different household.²⁷⁷²⁷⁷ The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (Amendment) (No. 3) Regulations 2020 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/558/contents/made) Part of Step 2 of the May 2020 Roadmap was implemented in England, with early years childcare and certain year groups returning to school on 1 June and the reopening of outdoor markets and car showrooms.

¶5.113. Contact tracing in Wales also commenced on 1 June 2020.²⁷⁸²⁷⁸ INQ000389184_0058-0059 para 201 On the same day, the Northern Ireland Executive Committee confirmed that hotels and other tourist accommodation would be permitted to reopen from 20 July 2020 and that, from 8 June, those shielding would be able to go outside. However, this was noted to be subject to "controlling the rate of transmission of the virus".²⁷⁹²⁷⁹ INQ000065816_0002

¶5.114. At a UK Cabinet meeting on 2 June 2020, Mr Johnson commissioned a review of the two-metre social distancing rule.²⁸⁰²⁸⁰ INQ000088938_0009 Professor Vallance explained that measures could be taken to mitigate the impact of reducing the distance, including wearing of a face covering.²⁸¹²⁸¹ INQ000088938_0009 Mr Johnson told the Inquiry that his support for the introduction of the wearing of face coverings on public transport was primarily a public messaging device, rather than because of the effect they might have on preventing transmission of Covid-19.²⁸²²⁸² INQ000255836_0107 para 398 The Inquiry notes that this rationale was equally applicable before June 2020. Some witnesses to the Inquiry believed that the UK government should have required face coverings to be worn at an earlier stage.²⁸³²⁸³ INQ000237819_0021 para 48; INQ000273872_0107 para 536

¶5.115. Kirsty Williams MS, Minister for Education in the Welsh Government from May 2016 to May 2021, announced on 3 June 2020 that schools would reopen on 29 June to give the opportunity for all students to return before the summer holidays. Students would return in phases with staggered starts, lessons and breaks – with at most a third of pupils present in schools at any one time.²⁸⁴²⁸⁴ '"Check in, catch up, prepare for summer and September" – all schools in Wales to enter next phase', Welsh Government, 3 June 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/check-catch-prepare-summer-and-september-all-schools-wales-enter-next-phase; INQ000300048_0001) Module 8: Children and young people is considering whether this plan came to fruition.

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¶5.116. On 4 June 2020, SAGE confirmed its advice that two metres for social distancing should continue to be observed, noting that "1m [one metre] separation carries 2-10 times the risk of 2m separation".²⁸⁵²⁸⁵ INQ000120526_0003 para 33 Noting that shorter distances presented higher risk, SAGE stated:

" Other mitigations … should particularly be considered where it is necessary for people to be closer than 2m for a prolonged period, or where someone has multiple, frequent interactions with others at a shorter distance."²⁸⁶²⁸⁶ INQ000120526_0004 paras 34-35

¶5.117. That same day, at its first meeting, Covid-S agreed that the social distancing guidance should be reviewed.²⁸⁷²⁸⁷ INQ000088234_0007-0008 Mr Sunak had written to Mr Johnson on 3 June 2020, urging him to reopen outdoors hospitality on 22 June 2020, followed by all hospitality on 4 July 2020. He stated: "We need flexibility around the 2m rule to ensure the businesses we want to reopen are viable."²⁸⁸²⁸⁸ INQ000088059. In May 2020, Mr Sunak had encouraged the opening of all non-essential retail from 1 June as part of Step 2 of the May 2020 Roadmap, rather than a phased approach (INQ000088054; INQ000232085_0002 para 13).

¶5.118. A paper presented to Covid-S explained the important remaining strategic choice in the UK government's approach to easing the lockdown restrictions in England related to incidence. It outlined that incidence in the UK was higher than in other countries, such as Germany, Italy and Spain, which were pursuing similar strategies to that proposed by the UK government in its May 2020 Roadmap – moving from national lockdowns to more targeted and local restrictions. Those countries had fewer than 700 confirmed cases per day, compared to 1,600 in the UK with estimated cases of about 10,000.²⁸⁹²⁸⁹ INQ000233834_0002 para 6 It explained that easing restrictions when incidence was still high was undesirable as it would lead to more deaths from Covid-19, that test and trace would be harder to deliver and that the risk of a second peak would be increased. The paper outlined: "In the Government's current strategy, a vaccine or game-changing treatment provide the only route out of the epidemic."²⁹⁰²⁹⁰ INQ000233834_0006 para 23 It stated that Covid-S would be asked to make a decision the following week about whether the strategy to ease the lockdown in England should proceed on the basis of levels of incidence rather than dates. If reducing incidence were to be prioritised, this would lead to the restrictions being eased more slowly than they would be if minimising the economic and other costs of the restrictions were to be prioritised.

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¶5.119. However, the evidence received by the Inquiry indicates that Covid-S did not reconvene again until 19 June 2020 and did not consider this strategic issue at that meeting.²⁹¹²⁹¹ INQ000088241 Ultimately, no target level of cases was incorporated by the UK government into its strategy for easing restrictions in the summer of 2020. Instead, the government sought to try to release restrictions gradually to reduce the economic and social impact of the pandemic, while still retaining enough restrictions to keep R below 1.

¶5.120. On 5 June 2020, the World Health Organization updated its guidance to advise that governments should encourage the public to wear face coverings in specific settings.²⁹²²⁹² 'Advice on the use of masks in the context of Covid-19', World Health Organization, 5 June 2020 (https://iris.who.int/handle/10665/332293; INQ000229307) It stated that, although widespread use of face coverings was "not yet supported by high quality or direct scientific evidence", the clear knowledge of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission supported the public being encouraged to wear face coverings in settings where social distancing could not be consistently achieved.²⁹³²⁹³ 'Advice on the use of masks in the context of Covid-19', World Health Organization, 5 June 2020 (https://iris.who.int/handle/10665/332293; INQ000229307_0006) In Wales, Dr Atherton recommended that non-medical face coverings should be worn by the public in "moderately risky (confined indoor spaces)", but he remained of the view that "the evidence of benefits does not justify a mandatory or legislative process".²⁹⁴²⁹⁴ INQ000281742_0002-0003 This position was supported by the Technical Advisory Cell.²⁹⁵²⁹⁵ INQ000311901 On 9 June 2020, the Welsh Government recommended – but did not mandate – face coverings in areas where social distancing could not be maintained.²⁹⁶²⁹⁶ '3 layer face coverings recommended, but not mandatory, in certain situations in Wales', Welsh Government, 9 June 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/3-layer-face-coverings-recommended-not-mandatory-certain-situations-wales; INQ000350831)

¶5.121. On 7 June 2020, no new deaths had been recorded for Scotland or Northern Ireland over the most recent 24-hour period. This was the first time Scotland had recorded no new deaths since lockdown began in March 2020.²⁹⁷²⁹⁷ 'Scotland reports no new virus deaths for first time since lockdown as UK reports lowest number of fatalities since March', ITV News, 7 June 2020 (https://www.itv.com/news/2020-06-07/scotland-reports-no-new-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since- lockdown; INQ000357844); INQ000048472_0002 para 4 The UK government's Covid-19 Dashboard recorded on 8 June that there were 1,205 new daily cases in the UK and 55 daily deaths.²⁹⁸²⁹⁸ INQ000283697_0001

¶5.122. The UK government and devolved administrations all passed regulations that came into force on 8 June 2020, requiring all travellers entering the UK from overseas to self-isolate for 14 days on arrival.²⁹⁹²⁹⁹ 'Written Statement: The Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel) (Wales) Regulations 2020', Mark Drakeford, First Minister, Welsh Government, 5 June 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/written-statement-health-protection-coronavirus-international-travel- wales-regulations-2020; INQ000023244); The Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel) England Regulations 2020 (Regulations applying in England) (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/568/contents/made); The Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel) (Wales) Regulations 2020 (Regulations applying in Wales) (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2020/574/ introduction/made); The Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2020 (Regulations applying in Northern Ireland) (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2020/90/part/2/2020-06-08); The Health Protection (Coronavirus) (International Travel) (Scotland) Regulation 2020 (Regulations applying in Scotland) (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2020/169/made)Show full note

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The fourth review

¶5.123. The next review of restrictions took place on 17 June 2020 in Wales, on 18 June in Northern Ireland and Scotland and on 23 June in England. The divergence in review dates was the consequence of a UK government decision at the end of May 2020 to extend its maximum review period for the lockdown regulations in England from 21 to 28 days.³⁰⁰³⁰⁰ INQ000050763

¶5.124. On 9 June 2020, Mr Johnson informed the UK Cabinet that the further easing of restrictions, including those affecting non-essential retail and the return of other year groups to schools, would take place in England on 15 June.³⁰¹³⁰¹ INQ000088978_0005 This was announced by Mr Johnson the following day. He explained that it would not be possible to reopen primary schools for all pupils before the summer holidays because:

" the rate of infection is not yet quite low enough, and because we are not able to change our social distancing advice including smaller class sizes in schools".³⁰²³⁰² 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 10 June 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 10 June 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-at-the-coronavirus-press-conference-10-june-2020; INQ000075728)

¶5.125. On 11 June 2020, Professor Young explained the potential impact of further easing restrictions to the Northern Ireland Executive Committee. He suggested that the system in Northern Ireland could tolerate R at higher than 1 for a few months. If R reached 1.2, it could just about cope, but not if R went to 1.3.³⁰³³⁰³ INQ000065729_0003 Professor McBride regarded the position as finely balanced. The purpose of this meeting was to agree a strategic approach to decisions around easing Covid-19 restrictions. The Executive Committee agreed that information presented to the Executive could be published to increase public understanding of the progress of the pandemic, the measures being taken to mitigate against it and the context within which the Executive was considering easing restrictions. It was agreed that the matter of household visits would be discussed further at the Executive Committee meeting of 15 June 2020.³⁰⁴³⁰⁴ INQ000048473_0002 para 6

¶5.126. On 15 June 2020, Diane Dodds MLA, Minister for the Economy in Northern Ireland from January 2020 to June 2021, presented an Executive Paper setting out proposals for reopening the wider tourism and hospitality industry around 3 July 2020.³⁰⁵³⁰⁵ INQ000207249 The paper noted that the conditional reopening date for tourism and hospitality in England had been brought forward to 4 July and that the Scottish Government had announced that reopening in Scotland would take effect from 15 July.³⁰⁶³⁰⁶ INQ000207249_0001-0002 paras 5, 6 Dates in respect of reopening in Wales had not yet been announced. It further noted that, when the Northern Ireland Executive had agreed the provisional reopening date of 20 July for tourist accommodation, this brought Northern Ireland into alignment with the Republic of Ireland. However, the Irish government had subsequently also brought forward the reopening of tourism and hospitality to 29 June 2020.³⁰⁷³⁰⁷ INQ000207249_0002 paras 6, 7 At its meeting the same day, the Executive Committee agreed to the timeframe set out in Ms Dodds' proposal, noting that "this would be conditional on the continued containment of the spread of COVID-19".³⁰⁸³⁰⁸ INQ000048474_0004 para 15 Notes of the meeting indicate that Professor McBride advised:

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¶" Paper DFE [Department for the Economy (Northern Ireland)] – early July, carries risk – spread of virus. Conditional, can be reversed. Risks – but also societal costs to economy … Exec wd [would] need to be satisfied with mitigation."³⁰⁹³⁰⁹ INQ000065730_0008

¶5.127. On 15 June 2020, the remainder of Step 2 of the May 2020 Roadmap was implemented in England.³¹⁰³¹⁰ See Regulation 1(3) of The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (Amendment) (No. 4) Regulations 2020 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/588/contents/made). The remaining year groups returned to school and non‑essential retail was permitted to reopen. It was also made an offence to not wear a face covering on public transport in England.³¹¹³¹¹ The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Wearing of Face Coverings on Public Transport) (England) Regulations 2020 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/contents/made)

¶5.128. On 16 June 2020, the Scottish Government Covid-19 Advisory Group provided further advice to the Scottish Government.³¹²³¹² INQ000217684 Under the heading 'Long Term Strategy', it stated:

¶" There is a need for greater overall clarity as to whether the approach that the Government is pursuing is still one of containment or elimination … elimination would require UK-wide strict border controls (currently centred on self- quarantine). These would be needed for arrivals from every country with COVID-19 – likely to be a large number in the foreseeable future. The Group considers this cannot be a Scotland only aspiration, and that the aim is to suppress the virus to as low a level as possible."³¹³³¹³ INQ000217685_0003

¶5.129. The following day, Professor Devi Sridhar, Professor of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh and a member of the Scottish Government Covid-19 Advisory Group, sent an advisory note to Ms Sturgeon.³¹⁴³¹⁴ INQ000236653_0010. A key message contained in the note was the view that "Scotland is now in a strong position to eliminate the Covid-19 virus." Though the paper predicted that further cases would probably be imported, it also said that "if these are identified quickly, traced and all exposed isolated" the elimination strategy could "facilitate a return to a largely 'normal' daily life for most". The note set out how:

¶" using existing capacity within Scotland, a major push for elimination could be made in July. Elimination being a continual push to zero infections in Scotland and elimination of any clusters emerging."³¹⁵³¹⁵ INQ000236653_0008

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¶Ms Sturgeon suggested that she call Professor Sridhar during the course of that week to discuss this further.³¹⁶³¹⁶ INQ000236653_0007; INQ000398982_0013 As discussed further in Chapter 6: The second wave, in this volume, and Chapter 12: Public health communications, in Volume II, the language of 'elimination' was inaccurately used by Ms Sturgeon during this period. This gave the impression to the public that the pandemic might imminently be over in Scotland, without recognising the risks of the second wave.³¹⁷³¹⁷ 'Scotland "not far away" from eliminating coronavirus', BBC News, 26 June 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53195166; INQ000357836); Jason Leitch 23 January 2024 158/21-159/24

¶5.130. When the Welsh Cabinet undertook its review on 17 June 2020, deaths from Covid-19 in Wales were the lowest they had been for six weeks.³¹⁸³¹⁸ INQ000048799_0002 para 1.4 The Cabinet decided that, from 22 June, non-essential retail could reopen, subject to social distancing.³¹⁹³¹⁹ INQ000048799_0003 para 1.9 In his written statement following the review, Mr Drakeford confirmed that, while the Stay Local requirement remained in place: "We will however, make it clear that travel outside a person's local area is permitted on compassionate grounds."³²⁰³²⁰ 'Written Statement: Review of Lockdown Measures and The Health Protection (Coronavirus Restrictions) (Wales) Regulations 2020', Mark Drakeford, First Minister, Welsh Government, 19 June 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/written-statement-review-lockdown- measures-and-health-protection-coronavirus-restrictions-wales-0; INQ000023247_0003) On 19 June, Dr Atherton's advice was to "take advantage of the summer months where there are more opportunities to be outdoors in the open air".³²¹³²¹ 'Written Statement: Review of Lockdown Measures and The Health Protection (Coronavirus Restrictions) (Wales) Regulations 2020', Mark Drakeford, First Minister, Welsh Government, 19 June 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/written-statement-review-lockdown- measures-and-health-protection-coronavirus-restrictions-wales-0; INQ000023247)

¶5.131. On 18 June 2020, Ms Sturgeon announced the move to Phase 2 of Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the Crisis, with a staged introduction of changes commencing on 19 June.³²²³²² Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the Crisis, Scottish Government, 21 May 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/ coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making-scotlands-route-map-through-out-crisis; INQ000131072); INQ000354125

¶5.132. The Northern Ireland Executive's fourth review of the restrictions also took place on 18 June 2020. The Department of Health (Northern Ireland) advised that, while earlier easements had not increased R above 1:

" [A]s yet there is no signal in relation to more recent easements though in some cases it remains too early to measure the impact."³²³³²³ INQ000065611_0005 para 27

¶R was estimated at between 0.6 and 0.9.³²⁴³²⁴ INQ000065611_0005 para 28; INQ000061550_0002 para 6 The conclusion of the Department of Health (Northern Ireland), supported by Professors McBride and Young, was that, at that time, each of the restrictions and requirements was still needed.³²⁵³²⁵ INQ000065611_0009-0010 paras 46, 47 At the Northern Ireland Executive Committee meeting that day, Professor McBride indicated that community transmission was at a "low level" but cautioned about the need to prepare for a re-emergence of the virus.³²⁶³²⁶ INQ000065773_0005 Mr Swann is recorded as saying: "Epidemic not over, proceed with caution. In a good place. Recomm no major changes today."³²⁷³²⁷ INQ000065773_0004 In line with the advice from the Department of Health (Northern Ireland), the Executive Committee did not agree to any further relaxations.³²⁸³²⁸ INQ000048475_0003 On 19 June, Northern Ireland had its first day on which no new Covid-19 cases were reported.³²⁹³²⁹ INQ000065774_0001 The Northern Ireland Executive subsequently agreed an indicative timeline of further relaxations during June, July and August 2020, which would be implemented if R remained below 1.³³⁰³³⁰ INQ000279355

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¶5.133. There were increasing concerns about the risk of a second wave. On 21 June 2020, Thomas Shinner, Adviser to the Prime Minister from March to July 2020, sent Mr Case and Simon Ridley, Director General for Policy and Strategy on the Covid-19 Taskforce from May 2020 to July 2021, a note on action that could be taken to prepare for a second, winter wave of Covid-19.³³¹³³¹ INQ000174752 It stated:

¶" I think we are more vulnerable to a second wave of COVID than is apparent … and that too few people across Whitehall are yet focussed on these problems."³³²³³² INQ000174752_0001

¶5.134. Covid-S met on 22 June 2020 and agreed to proceed with Step 3 of the May 2020 Roadmap in England on 4 July 2020.³³³³³³ INQ000088242 Prior to the meeting, Professor Whitty had raised concerns with the Covid-19 Taskforce that Step 3 was too far skewed in favour of reopening everything.³³⁴³³⁴ INQ000069760 At the meeting, he stated that Step 3 was:

¶" at the top end of the risk boundary … although this package … should not push

'R' above one, taken together with the reopening of schools in September, it was more likely than not to do so".³³⁵³³⁵ INQ000088242_0004

¶Professor Whitty underlined that the "most risky areas of the package were indoor hospitality and the prospect of reopening schools in September".³³⁶³³⁶ INQ000088242_0004 A note made by Professor Vallance after the meeting recorded that Professor Whitty had told Covid-S that "this is high risk and you are treading the line between high risk and being foolhardy".³³⁷³³⁷ INQ000062348

¶5.135. However, Mr Johnson told Covid-S that the "five tests the Government had set were met" and that there was agreement to proceed with the "bold and well-justified" Step 3 package, which, in his opinion, "represented a sensible and cautious approach to opening up the economy".³³⁸³³⁸ INQ000088242_0006-0007 At this time, as acknowledged in a paper presented at the meeting, the effect of the Step 2 easings made on 15 June 2020 would not be fully known before Step 3 was implemented and:

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" The incidence and prevalence of the disease in the UK remains higher than in most other European countries which have eased their lockdowns."³³⁹³³⁹ INQ000088239_0003 para 5

¶5.136. Moving to Step 3 and the reduction in social distancing from two metres to 'one-metre plus' was approved by the UK Cabinet on 23 June 2020, despite Professor Whitty reiterating his concerns that this took the UK government "to the high end of the risk curve".³⁴⁰³⁴⁰ INQ000089071_0007-0009 Mr Johnson announced that day that Step 3 would be implemented on 4 July 2020.³⁴¹³⁴¹ 'Prime Minister's statement to the House on COVID-19:23 June 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 23 June 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-to-the-house-on-covid-19-23-june-2020; INQ000106501_0005); INQ000255836_0115-0116 para 421

¶5.137. On 22 June, face coverings became mandatory on public transport in Scotland.³⁴²³⁴² The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Wearing of Face Coverings on Public Transport) (England) Regulations 2020 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/contents/made); 'Face coverings mandatory on public transport from 22 June', Scottish Government, 18 June 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/news/face-coverings-mandatory-on-public-transport-from-22-june; INQ000651562)

¶5.138. On 30 June 2020, Ms O'Neill, Conor Murphy MLA, Minister of Finance from January 2020 to October 2022, Carál Ní Chuilín MLA, Minister for Communities from June to December 2020, and other senior Sinn Féin politicians attended the funeral of Bobby Storey in Northern Ireland. The impact of alleged rule-breaking by advisers and decision-makers is examined in Chapter 11: Government decision-making, in Volume II.

Reducing the two-metre rule

¶5.139. Following his letter to Mr Johnson on 3 June 2020 concerning the reopening of hospitality, Mr Sunak again urged Mr Johnson on 8 June to change the social distancing guidance "to 1m as soon as practically possible to ensure the viability of businesses as sectors begin to reopen".³⁴³³⁴³ INQ000184573_0002 In his letter, Mr Sunak expressed his view that "the UK is fast becoming an outlier internationally … there are at least 24 countries who provide for flexibility to go below 2m".³⁴⁴³⁴⁴ INQ000184573_0002

¶5.140. Mr Case, Professors Whitty and Vallance and Clare Lombardelli, Chief Economic Adviser at the Treasury from April 2018 to April 2023, agreed to conduct a review of the social distancing guidance.³⁴⁵³⁴⁵ INQ000218325 At a SAGE meeting on 4 June 2020, the same day as Covid-S's decision to review the two-metre social distancing rule, it was confirmed that SAGE continued to advise that two-metre social distancing should be observed wherever possible, given that a reduction to one metre would carry two to ten times the risk of two-metre distance.³⁴⁶³⁴⁶ INQ000120526_0003 para 33 At a meeting on 5 June 2020 with Treasury officials, Professor Whitty advised that reducing social distancing guidance to "less than 2m on hospitality would have a big impact on R".³⁴⁷³⁴⁷ INQ000235261_0001

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¶5.141. In WhatsApp messages on 11 June 2020, Mr Johnson and Mr Case discussed the timing of the social distancing review. Mr Johnson said that the review needed to be concluded "in good time for July 4".³⁴⁸³⁴⁸ INQ000283296_0002 Mr Case confirmed that he would "conclude the 'review' next Friday", after which Mr Johnson could:

" consider conclusions on 22/23 June and then we announce our intention, assuming incidence continues to fall, to drop to 1m from 4 July".³⁴⁹³⁴⁹ INQ000283296_0002

¶It is clear from this WhatsApp exchange that Mr Johnson had decided from the outset that the guidance on social distancing should be reduced from two metres. This was most probably to allow for the implementation of Step 3 on 4 July 2020, so that businesses, including hospitality, could reopen in an economically viable way. He had been urged by Mr Sunak to ensure this.³⁵⁰³⁵⁰ INQ000088059; INQ000184573_0002 Mr Case told the Inquiry he approached the review with an open mind.³⁵¹³⁵¹ Simon Case 23 May 2024 106/7-14 However, he conceded that he was under political pressure to conclude that social distancing should be reduced to one metre.³⁵²³⁵² Simon Case 23 May 2024 110/5-7

¶5.142. On 14 June 2020, in his evening notes, Professor Vallance recorded:

" On Friday the 2M rule meeting made it abundantly clear that no one in no 10 [10 Downing Street] or CO [Cabinet Office] had really read or taken time to understand the science advice on 2M. Quite extraordinary."³⁵³³⁵³ INQ000273901_0094

¶5.143. SAGE had already advised on 4 June 2020 that two-metre social distancing should continue to be observed, noting that "1m separation carries 2-10 times the risk of 2m separation".³⁵⁴³⁵⁴ INQ000120526_0003 para 33 Despite this, the UK government's social distancing review concluded that guidance should change "to state that 2m or 1m with risk mitigation (where 2m is not viable) are acceptable".³⁵⁵³⁵⁵ 'Review of two metre social distancing guidance', Cabinet Office, 26 June 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ review-of-two-metre-social-distancing-guidance/review-of-two-metre-social-distancing-guidance; INQ000181693_0007 para 5) Risk mitigation related to the use of measures such as face coverings. The review said that there were "severe economic costs to maintaining 2m distancing" as it was not financially viable for many businesses to reopen on 4 July 2020 with two-metre distancing.³⁵⁶³⁵⁶ INQ000181693_0007 para 2 Mr Johnson explained: "It was clear that the economic costs of maintaining two metres social distancing were severe."³⁵⁷³⁵⁷ INQ000255836_0114 para 418 He also told the Inquiry that, when reaching the decision to reduce the social distancing guidance: "I did not place more emphasis on the economy than public safety; public health always remained my priority."³⁵⁸³⁵⁸ INQ000255836_0114 para 419

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¶5.144. However, Professor Vallance told the Inquiry:

" [T]he economic arguments for reducing the guidance on social distancing were advanced forcefully and presumably were a powerful influence on the decision that was made."³⁵⁹³⁵⁹ INQ000238826_0111-0112 para 338

¶Similarly, Professor Whitty confirmed that "the driver was the stated economic impact of the 2 metre rule".³⁶⁰³⁶⁰ INQ000251645_0171 para 8.135 Professor Van-Tam said that the decision to change the social distancing guidance, rather than being based on scientific advice, was:

" entirely about the impact that the two-metre rule was having on the economy generally and the hospitality sector specifically".³⁶¹³⁶¹ INQ000269203_0099 para 7.22

¶5.145. In mid-June 2020, the Northern Ireland Executive Committee considered a proposal to reduce social distancing from two metres to one metre.³⁶²³⁶² INQ000065730 Professor McBride was recorded as having said that he was "extremely uncomfortable with [a] move to less than 2m".³⁶³³⁶³ INQ000065730_0011

¶5.146. Mr Drakeford said that he first heard of the UK government's intention to reduce the social distancing guidance from two metres in a call with Mr Gove on 23 June 2020. He said the underlying evidence had not been shared with the Welsh Government.³⁶⁴³⁶⁴ INQ000216523_0003; INQ000273747_0034 para 109; Mark Drakeford 13 March 2024 131/24-133/10 It retained the two-metre social distance. Mr Drakeford said that the rule had been "a cornerstone of the Welsh Government's successful effort to persuade the public of the need to adhere to a small number of tangible actions" and to change it might have confused the Welsh Government's messaging.³⁶⁵³⁶⁵ INQ000371209_0067 para 213 He also confirmed that "no one at all, of whom I was aware, argued that 2m distances did not provide greater protection".³⁶⁶³⁶⁶ INQ000371209_0067 para 213

¶5.147. There had been discussion within the Scottish Cabinet on 16 and 23 June 2020 about whether it might be "safe" to reduce social distancing from two metres to one metre.³⁶⁷³⁶⁷ INQ000362880_0005 para 27(a); INQ000214502_0003 para 12 The Scottish Government received advice from the Scottish Government Covid-19 Advisory Group in draft form on 29 June that focused on the possibility of limited exceptions to the two-metre physical distancing rule in different settings.³⁶⁸³⁶⁸ INQ000218300; INQ000218299 The draft advice noted that the final decision would be a matter of policy for the Scottish Cabinet. This was because considerations of physical distancing requirements were not a binary discussion of what was either safe or unsafe, but required to be weighed up against the likely combined effect of the policy choices on the four harms recognised in the Scottish Government's COVID-19 – A Framework for Decision

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¶Making.³⁶⁹³⁶⁹ COVID-19 – A Framework for Decision Making, Scottish Government, 23 April 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/ coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making; INQ000369689); INQ000214408_0003 para 13 On 2 July 2020, Ms Sturgeon announced that the two-metre rule would remain, with exemptions in Phase 3 of Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the

¶Crisis for certain sectors such as hospitality and retail, which could choose to operate with a one-metre distance on the condition that agreed mitigations were implemented.³⁷⁰³⁷⁰ Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the Crisis, Scottish Government, 21 May 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/ coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making-scotlands-route-map-through-out-crisis; INQ000131072); 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech 2 July 2020', Scottish Government, 2 July 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid- 19-update-first-ministers-speech-2-july-2020; INQ000354193) 371 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech 2 July 2020', Scottish Government, 2 July 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-update-first-ministers-speech-2-july-2020; INQ000354193) 372 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech 26 June 2020', Scottish Government, 26 June 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-update-first-ministers-speech-26-june-2020; INQ000235122_0005) 373 'Scotland "not far away" from eliminating coronavirus', BBC News, 26 June 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53195166; INQ000357836_0001) 374 'Why Scotland's Zero-Covid strategy is the best way forward', The National, 1 August 2020 (https://www.thenational.scot/ news/18622350.scotlands-zero-covid-strategy-best-way-forward; INQ000326388_0002); see also Covid-19: Examining the Effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions, The Royal Society, August 2023, p19 (https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/ projects/impact-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-covid-19-transmission/the-royal-society-covid-19-examining-the-effectiveness- of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-report.pdf; INQ000250983)Show full note Ms Sturgeon explained that these exemptions were created because of the "serious economic implications" of the two-metre rule on these sectors.371

Scotland: an alternative strategy (zero Covid)

¶5.148. In late June 2020, on a day when no deaths or new cases of Covid-19 were reported in Scotland for the most recent 24-hour period, Ms Sturgeon announced: "Suppressing the virus, driving it as far as we can towards total elimination has to be our overriding priority."372 She predicted that Scotland was "not far away" from eliminating the virus.373

¶5.149. During this period, the Scottish Government was considering an alternative strategy – one of 'zero Covid'. Professor Stephen Reicher, Professor of Psychology at the University of St Andrews and participant in the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours (SPI-B), explained at the time:

" A Zero Covid strategy is based on a refusal to believe in any 'acceptable' level of Covid infections and deaths in the community and a relentless effort to drive it down."374

¶5.150. Ms Sturgeon told the Inquiry:

" I knew that our circumstances – particularly if the rest of the UK was not following suit – meant it was unlikely to be completely achievable for any sustained period of time. But by aiming to drive infection levels as close to zero as possible, it was likely that we would keep them lower than we would otherwise do."³⁷⁵³⁷⁵ INQ000339033_0105-0106 para 289

258

¶She emphasised the importance of the distinction between the concepts of 'elimination' (which she equated with maximum suppression) and 'eradication' (which she understood to be an epidemiological concept that meant getting rid of the virus altogether – something that she understood was not achievable in the summer of 2020 in the absence of a vaccine).³⁷⁶³⁷⁶ Nicola Sturgeon 31 January 2024 186/16-196/2 Others agreed that zero Covid was simply a way of expressing the aim of reducing transmission and, hence, suppressing the virus as much as possible.³⁷⁷³⁷⁷ INQ000339039_0006-0007 paras 22, 27; INQ000339033_0105-0106 para 289; INQ000273978_0025 para 108; Gregor Smith 22 January 2024 178/14-20

¶5.151. Professor Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh and member of the Scottish Government Covid-19 Advisory Group, agreed. He told the Inquiry that the idea of eliminating the virus from Scotland in the summer of 2020 was also incompatible with the gradual relaxation of restrictions.³⁷⁸³⁷⁸ INQ000250231_0035 para 194 He said that the Scottish Government was "flirting with a zero Covid strategy" over the summer of 2020, which showed that it "didn't accept that the virus was here to stay".³⁷⁹³⁷⁹ Mark Woolhouse 24 January 2024 59/22-25 Professor Woolhouse explained that the Scottish Government's approach:

¶" signalled to me that the government did not accept the epidemiological

assessment that there would be a second wave if too many restrictions were lifted, an assessment dating back to early March".³⁸⁰³⁸⁰ INQ000250231_0035 para 195

¶He was concerned that a second wave would occur once R rose above 1, regardless of the time it took to reach that point.³⁸¹³⁸¹ INQ000250231_0035 para 196 In other words, "[a]ny threat to public health would come from unlocking too far not too fast".³⁸²³⁸² INQ000250231_0035 para 196

¶5.152. It was clear to Professor Thomas Evans, Professor of Molecular Microbiology at the University of Glasgow and member of the Scottish Government Covid-19 Advisory Group, that, by the summer of 2020:

¶" re-infection and thus waning immunity to infection was not uncommon. Unless

strict lockdown remained in place, reintroduction and spread was always going to occur."³⁸³³⁸³ INQ000346147_0012 para 33

¶He therefore "never believed that a policy of zero COVID was likely [to] work".³⁸⁴³⁸⁴ INQ000346147_0012 para 33

¶5.153. The Scottish Government considered its formal strategy in the summer of 2020 to be one of maximum suppression of the virus, rather than elimination. Zero Covid was described by the Scottish Government as its "stretch aim".³⁸⁵³⁸⁵ INQ000339039_0007 para 27; COVID-19 – A Framework for Decision Making, Scottish Government, 23 April 2020, p6 (https:// www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making; INQ000369689); Gregor Smith 22 January 2024 178/14-18; 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech 26 June 2020', Scottish Government, 26 June 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-update-first-ministers-speech-26-june-2020; INQ000235122_0005)Show full note However, the language of 'elimination' was used by Ms Sturgeon, Jeane Freeman MSP (Cabinet Secretary for

259

¶Health and Sport in the Scottish Government from June 2018 to May 2021) and

¶Professor Smith in statements to both the Scottish Parliament and the media.³⁸⁶³⁸⁶ INQ000237820_0031 para 4.2.7; 'Scotland "not far away" from eliminating coronavirus', BBC News, 26 June 2020 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53195166; INQ000357836_0001)

¶5.154. The idea of eliminating the virus from Scotland was inappropriate and destined to fail in the light of an open border with England and there being no agreement with the UK government to close it. The references by Ms Sturgeon and others to elimination of the virus from Scotland might have created the impression for the public that life could return to normal. This was described by Professor Sridhar as an "unintended consequence" of the Scottish Government's messaging at that time.³⁸⁷³⁸⁷ Devi Sridhar 23 January 2024 158/21-159/24; see also INQ000370347_0039 para 80

¶5.155. It may also have had another unintended and unfortunate practical effect. Public Health Scotland suggested that the use of different language by the Scottish Government to express policy intent led to challenges in its development of guidance.³⁸⁸³⁸⁸ INQ000237820_0031 para 4.2.8