Further easing of restrictions in July 2020

¶5.156. On 2 July 2020, the UK government's Covid-19 Dashboard recorded 89 daily deaths in the UK and 25,000 people estimated to be infected with the virus in England.³⁸⁹³⁸⁹ INQ000183952_0001 R was estimated to be between 0.7 and 0.9 in England.³⁹⁰³⁹⁰ INQ000255836_0117 para 425

¶5.157. In England, Covid-S met on 2 July 2020 to consider winter preparedness. A Covid-19 Taskforce paper prepared for the meeting set out three scenarios of increasing severity to form the basis of the UK government's winter planning:

an optimistic scenario where UK incidence of Covid-19 had started to decline and the biggest risk was from overseas;
a winter resurgence of Covid-19 where incidence was broadly controlled until the autumn of 2020 but then accelerated from November; and
a scenario with a pre-winter peak (as early as late July 2020) of Covid-19 combined with significant winter resurgence.³⁹¹³⁹¹ INQ000088245; INQ000088301_0013 para 27 This scenario was used as the reasonable worst-case scenario for planning purposes.

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¶5.158. In July 2020, the UK government's strategy for responding to Covid-19 began to shift towards local and more targeted measures. On 3 July, Mr Johnson announced publicly that the UK government intended to move away from "national lockdowns" to imposing targeted local lockdowns and local restrictions where necessary.³⁹²³⁹² 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 3 July 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 3 July 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-3-july-2020; INQ000065412_0003) Mr Johnson also gave instructions that the possibility of population segmentation should be explored.³⁹³³⁹³ INQ000088251_0005-0006 At the start of July, the use of "smart" interventions that sought to "maximise the impact on transmission while minimising the economic and/ or social impact" was also considered.³⁹⁴³⁹⁴ INQ000198120_0002; INQ000062371 It is not clear to the Inquiry to what extent this work on 'smarter' interventions was ever seriously taken forward.

¶5.159. At a 10 Downing Street press conference in the late afternoon of 3 July 2020, Mr Johnson announced the latest figures for infections and deaths and gave details of which businesses would be allowed to reopen and of the social distancing restrictions that continued to apply.³⁹⁵³⁹⁵ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 3 July 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 3 July 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-3-july-2020; INQ000065412) He stated that a timetable would be provided the following week for the reopening of other businesses, such as those in the arts and events industry, indoor gyms and nail bars.³⁹⁶³⁹⁶ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 3 July 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 3 July 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-3-july-2020; INQ000065412_0003) He warned, however, that "we are not out of the woods yet" and that targeted local lockdowns could be expected to be reimposed.³⁹⁷³⁹⁷ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 3 July 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 3 July 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-3-july-2020; INQ000065412_0005) Mr Johnson urged the British public to act safely.³⁹⁸³⁹⁸ 'Prime Minister's statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 3 July 2020', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 3 July 2020 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-3-july-2020; INQ000065412_0005) Mr Johnson further noted that the devolved administrations were going in the "same direction" as England, but perhaps at "slightly different speeds".³⁹⁹³⁹⁹ INQ000064552_0002 Professor Whitty warned that the virus was "not going to be gone for a very long time" and that, while Step 3 was "a reasonable package of measures", it was not "risk-free".⁴⁰⁰⁴⁰⁰ INQ000064552_0002

¶5.160. On 4 July 2020, Step 3 of the May 2020 Roadmap was implemented in England. This easing of restrictions constituted the reopening of many sectors of the economy and included the reduction to social distancing from two metres to one metre with mitigations. Restaurants, pubs, hairdressers and cinemas, among other outlets, were permitted to reopen in England, although people were urged to keep their distance from those outside their household and to try to stay two metres apart at all times. Some places remained shut, including nightclubs, bowling alleys, spas and swimming pools. In place of the previous restrictions on gatherings, gatherings of more than 30 people were banned.⁴⁰¹⁴⁰¹ The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (No. 2) (England) Regulations 2020, regulation 5(1) (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/684/regulation/5/made) However, the UK government continued to advise that only up to six people (from no more than two households) should meet indoors or outdoors. On the same day, a local lockdown was imposed on Leicester.⁴⁰²⁴⁰² The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Leicester) Regulations 2020 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/685/contents/made)

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¶5.161. Mr Johnson told the Inquiry that Step 3 was "a sensible and cautious approach to opening the economy and was predicated upon clear scientific, behavioural and economic advice".⁴⁰³⁴⁰³ INQ000255836_0112 para 413 He further claimed that "we were appropriately cautious in how we eased the first lockdown" and again that "[p]ublic health always remained my priority".⁴⁰⁴⁴⁰⁴ INQ000255836_0125 para 447

¶5.162. Many of Mr Johnson's advisers and ministers did not appear to agree with this characterisation. Scientific advisers had voiced concerns about the speed with which the first lockdown restrictions were eased, particularly in respect of Step 3 on 4 July 2020. Professors Whitty and Vallance had highlighted their concerns about Step 3 at Covid-S on 22 June 2020 and at a UK Cabinet meeting on 23 June. Professor Vallance had also advised decision-makers that, in making decisions about the timing of the easing of the lockdown, both R and overall prevalence were important considerations.⁴⁰⁵⁴⁰⁵ INQ000238826_0107 para 325 This was because higher prevalence means that the easing of restrictions takes place in an environment where infections can grow more quickly. Test and trace was also likely to be overwhelmed where large numbers of people were passing on the virus to others.

¶5.163. Decision-makers and advisers in the UK government were aware of the risks inherent in Step 3.⁴⁰⁶⁴⁰⁶ INQ000207294_0024 para 3.26; INQ000232194_0102-0103, 0105 paras 419, 426; Rishi Sunak 11 December 2023 101/25-102/6 Both Mr Case and Mr Hancock had expressed concerns in mid-July 2020 about the speed with which restrictions were being eased.⁴⁰⁷⁴⁰⁷ INQ000048313_0052; INQ000129422 For example, on 13 July, Mr Hancock sent Mr Johnson a WhatsApp message stating: "I'm very worried about winter. We've gone fast on releasing lockdown."⁴⁰⁸⁴⁰⁸ INQ000129422 Mr Case told the Inquiry that the failure of the UK government to adopt an incidence-based measure to guide its approach to unlocking led to a high-incidence environment in the autumn of 2020. This undermined the effectiveness of test and trace and restrictions at that time which aimed to avoid a second England-wide lockdown.⁴⁰⁹⁴⁰⁹ Simon Case 23 May 2024 134/20-137/23

¶5.164. The easing of the majority of restrictions took place in England on 4 July 2020. The reality was that both Mr Johnson and Mr Sunak were in favour of restrictions being lifted as soon as possible in the summer of 2020, given what they saw as the imperative of restarting the economy, despite being informed by scientific advisers that this was an inherently high-risk approach.

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¶5.165. Although the timing and scale of easing was a matter for politicians to decide, Mr Johnson was unwise to have run this risk. Despite his awareness of the clear risk of a second wave and his acknowledgement that another England-wide lockdown would be a disaster (as he told the UK Cabinet on 2 July 2020), he pushed ahead with reopening almost all sectors on 4 July.⁴¹⁰⁴¹⁰ INQ000088245_0007

¶5.166. The decision of the UK government to significantly ease restrictions in England on 4 July 2020, despite scientific advisers' concerns about the public health risks of doing so, was high risk. It ran the risk that R would be pushed above 1 and that the effectiveness of test and trace and interventions to contain the subsequent spread of the virus would be fatally undermined.

¶5.167. Moreover, Mr Johnson was the Prime Minister of the whole of the UK. He should have considered the implications of his decision to ease restrictions significantly in England on the epidemiological positions and pandemic response in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – given that there were open internal borders. There was nothing to prevent people resident in England from travelling across the porous internal borders of the UK. The high-risk approach adopted by the UK government to the easing of lockdown restrictions on 4 July 2020 risked undermining the effectiveness of the more cautious responses of the devolved administrations. Both Mr Drakeford and Ms Sturgeon subsequently wrote to Mr Johnson regarding travel across internal borders.⁴¹¹⁴¹¹ INQ000198495; INQ000256868

¶5.168. In contrast, the governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland adopted a cautious approach to the relaxation of restrictions throughout the summer of 2020. The Scottish Cabinet regularly discussed, such as on 14 April 2020 and 19 May 2020, that any relaxation of restrictions "should be introduced with great caution" and that a:

" careful, precautionary approach, which some might criticise as too slow, was necessary in order to ensure that the country did not slip back into a second wave of deadly infection".⁴¹²⁴¹² INQ000214644_0003 para 7(a); INQ000214402_0010 para 41(i)

¶5.169. The Scottish Government implemented its first localised measures on 2 July 2020.⁴¹³⁴¹³ 'Coronavirus (COVID-19): Dumfries and Galloway', Scottish Government, 2 July 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/news/management-of-local-covid-19-outbreak; INQ000651560) This followed work undertaken to plan for localised measures, building on the publication of its Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the Crisis on 21 May 2020, which stated that the Scottish Government was keeping an "open mind on the potential for regional variation" in the phased approach to varying restrictions.⁴¹⁴⁴¹⁴ Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the Crisis, Scottish Government, 21 May 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/ coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making-scotlands-route-map-through-out-crisis; INQ000131072); INQ000256709_0019

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¶5.170. On 8 July 2020, the Scottish Cabinet observed that the "biggest threat to the Scottish Government's ambition to eliminate the virus in Scotland was the importation of cases from other countries".⁴¹⁵⁴¹⁵ INQ000214409_0003 para 11 This had been the initial source of community transmission in early spring, when Scottish tourists had returned from mid-term breaks in Italy and Spain.⁴¹⁶⁴¹⁶ INQ000214409_0003 para 11 On 9 July 2020, Ms Sturgeon announced the move to Phase 3 of Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the Crisis.⁴¹⁷⁴¹⁷ Scotland's Route Map Through and Out of the Crisis, Scottish Government, 21 May 2020 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/ coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making-scotlands-route-map-through-out-crisis; INQ000131072); INQ000189592 This included changes to indoor and outdoor household gatherings from 10 July, the reopening of shops in shopping centres and dentists from 13 July and the reopening of hairdressers, pubs, restaurants, holiday accommodation, visitor attractions, cinemas and places of worship from 15 July, with some restrictions.

¶5.171. Mr Drakeford noted that, while there was a "shared direction of travel", in his opinion the approach of the UK government "was to do so more swiftly and aggressively, and at the edge, rather than at the central thrust of scientific and medical opinion".⁴¹⁸⁴¹⁸ INQ000371209_0067 para 213

¶5.172. Although the prospect of local restrictions was considered by the Covid-19 Core Group days earlier, the Welsh Government confirmed on 3 July 2020 the lifting of the Stay Local requirements from 6 July. It also confirmed that two households would be able to form a single, extended household for the purpose of the restrictions.⁴¹⁹⁴¹⁹ INQ000349671_0002 para 7; 'Written Statement: Review of Lockdown Measures and The Health Protection (Coronavirus Restrictions) (Wales) Regulations 2020', Mark Drakeford, First Minister, Welsh Government, 3 July 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/written-statement-review-lockdown-measures-and-health-protection-coronavirus-restrictions-wales; INQ000023250); 'Written Statement: Review of Lockdown Measures and The Health Protection (Coronavirus Restrictions) (Wales) Regulations 2020', Mark Drakeford, First Minister, Welsh Government, 19 June 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/written-statement-review- lockdown-measures-and-health-protection-coronavirus-restrictions-wales-0; INQ000023247_0003); INQ000048799_0004 para 1.19Show full note The first day of no Covid-19-related deaths in Wales since 19 March 2020 occurred on 6 July. At the Welsh Cabinet review on 7 July 2020, "the situation was stable and improving with around seven to eight new cases a day being confirmed" and about 3,000 tests being carried out each day.⁴²⁰⁴²⁰ INQ000022489_0002 para 1.4 In line with its published plans for easing restrictions, the Welsh Government continued to "follow a step by step, week by week approach".⁴²¹⁴²¹ INQ000048852_0003 para 2.2 However, by 10 July, Wales had experienced "recent increases linked to the two outbreaks at meat and food processing plants in Wrexham and Anglesey and an incident in Merthyr Tydfil".⁴²²⁴²² 'Written Statement: Review of the Health Protection (Coronavirus Restrictions) (Wales) Regulations 2020', Mark Drakeford, First Minister, Welsh Government, 10 July 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/written-statement-review-health-protection-coronavirus- restrictions-wales-regulations-2020; INQ000023251) The Welsh Government therefore considered that restrictions might need to be reimposed "in specific areas should the rate of transmission increase".⁴²³⁴²³ INQ000048852_0002 para 1.6

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¶5.173. Nonetheless, on 10 July, following its review of restrictions on 7 July, the Welsh Government indicated a number of changes, including the reopening of outdoor hospitality and indoor close-contact services from 13 July.⁴²⁴⁴²⁴ 'Written Statement: Review of the Health Protection (Coronavirus Restrictions) (Wales) Regulations 2020', Mark Drakeford, First Minister, Welsh Government, 10 July 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/written-statement-review-health-protection-coronavirus- restrictions-wales-regulations-2020; INQ000023251); INQ000048852 It also outlined a number of further week-by-week relaxations. It confirmed that two-metre social distancing would remain in place but – for "exceptional" situations where it was "not always practical" – guidance for mitigations would be published.⁴²⁵⁴²⁵ 'Written Statement: Review of the Health Protection (Coronavirus Restrictions) (Wales) Regulations 2020', Mark Drakeford, First Minister, Welsh Government, 10 July 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/written-statement-review-health-protection-coronavirus- restrictions-wales-regulations-2020; INQ000023251_0004); INQ000320905 In reality, this was a similar step to that taken by the UK government in moving to Step 3 on 4 July and recognised that the distance of two metres was not viable for certain businesses.

¶5.174. Advice was also being developed to help inform the Welsh Government's decision-making on the use of interventions.⁴²⁶⁴²⁶ INQ000048829_0011-0012 paras 46-50; 'Chief Medical Officer statement on 21 day review: 28 May 2020', Welsh Government, 2 June 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/chief-medical-officer-statement-21-day-review-28-may-2020; INQ000048740_0002); INQ000048799_0002 para 1.6 On 10 July 2020, the Technical Advisory Group produced a comprehensive list of triggers – "circuit breakers" and "early warning indicators". These provided the Welsh Government with a list of indicators "designed to provide early warning of rising infection rates which in turn may mean that reverses in the lockdown measures need to be considered".⁴²⁷⁴²⁷ Technical Advisory Cell: Circuit Breakers/Early Warning Indicators, Welsh Government, 10 July 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/ default/files/publications/2020-07/technical-advisory-cell-circuit-breakers-early-warning-indicators.pdf; INQ000227967_0002). The application of what the Welsh Government called 'circuit breakers' required the monitoring of different categories, such as hospital capacity, which, if the data hit a certain threshold, established a trigger point at which further restrictions might be necessary (this use differed from that of the UK government and the other devolved administrations, which used the term 'circuit breakers' to refer to the restrictions themselves). 'Early warning indicators' covered a wider range of measures for monitoring prevalence and the impact of the virus and sought to provide evidence of when a circuit breaker might be close to being triggered.Show full note These were designed to help ministers decide "how and whether to reverse the easing of restrictions".⁴²⁸⁴²⁸ Technical Advisory Cell: Circuit Breakers/Early Warning Indicators, Welsh Government, 10 July 2020 (https://www.gov.wales/sites/ default/files/publications/2020-07/technical-advisory-cell-circuit-breakers-early-warning-indicators.pdf; INQ000227967_0002) This was a helpful approach to monitoring the risks of Covid-19 in Wales and provided a signal as to whether further restrictions might need to be imposed.

¶5.175. By 2 July, Northern Ireland had experienced no Covid-19 deaths for 15 days, had no Covid-19 patients in intensive care units and had reduced numbers of cases in hospitals.⁴²⁹⁴²⁹ INQ000048479_0002 para 2 On 6 July 2020, the Northern Ireland Executive agreed that indoor marriage ceremonies and baptisms could resume from 10 July, with venues and places of worship to determine numbers attending on a risk-assessed basis.⁴³⁰⁴³⁰ INQ000048480_0003 para 8 The use of face coverings became mandatory on public transport from 10 July in Northern Ireland.⁴³¹⁴³¹ INQ000414515_0045-0046 para 101

¶5.176. From an early stage, the Northern Ireland Executive had been advised of the likelihood of a second wave of Covid-19 infections in the autumn of 2020 and that the relaxation of restrictions would lead to an increase in the rate of transmission.

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¶Its approach to the relaxation of restrictions centred on five guiding principles: (i) controlling transmission (maintaining R below 1); (ii) protecting healthcare capacity; (iii) necessity; (iv) proportionality; and (iv) reliance on evidence in making any changes to existing restrictions. The Executive Committee did not seek to prescribe dates for the relaxation of specific restrictions. Instead, it adopted an approach of making decisions on the basis of these five principles. This cautious approach to the potential relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions was an appropriate one, given the picture of transmission in Northern Ireland at the time.

The divergence of approaches across the UK

¶5.177. Although a strong four-nations approach had been taken when entering into the first UK-wide lockdown, similar efforts were not made to discuss strategies on the exit from that lockdown. This resulted in the first signs of divergence of the UK-wide approach to the pandemic response in May 2020. The UK government's desire to return to normality faster contrasted with the more cautious approaches of the governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

¶5.178. The Inquiry understands the need to balance the wide range of harms caused by stringent restrictions and the harms caused by the virus. However, the pace at which the UK government eased the first lockdown restrictions – particularly in respect of Step 3 on 4 July 2020 – was not without risk. It created the prospect of more stringent restrictions or a second lockdown becoming necessary later in the year. In contrast, the more gradual easing of restrictions in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, against a background of a positive epidemiological position in the early summer of 2020, at least created a greater prospect of further lockdowns not being necessary or, if they were, not being necessary for so long.

¶5.179. However, despite the diverging approaches to the easing of restrictions, all four nations were hit by a second wave and were forced ultimately, albeit at different times, into further nationwide or (in Scotland's case) regional lockdowns.

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