Chapter 6: The second wave (mid-July to early December 2020)

Introduction

¶6.1. By September 2020, a second wave of Covid-19 had struck the UK. All four nations saw a sharp increase in the number of infections.1 By 23 September, the reproduction number (R) was "almost certainly" above 1 across the UK and, by 30 September 2020, was between 1.3 and 1.6.²² INQ000213284_0001 para 1; INQ000213274_0001 para 1 In England, Wales and Northern Ireland, this ultimately led to the imposition of further lockdowns (in England on 5 November 2020; in Northern Ireland on 16 October; and in Wales a 17-day 'firebreak' on 23 October). There was no Scotland-wide lockdown during this period, although regional protection levels came into effect on 2 November 2020.

¶Figure 17: Daily deaths per 100,000 population by date of death from 6 July to 28 December 2020 across the UK

20 t2 r2 20 — 02
0 — 0
20 02 02 20 — 20

0 0 be be ar ly Ju Au be er r2 r2 y gu em ctob m m nu s pt O ve ce Ja Se No De

¶Source: UK Health Security Agency Covid-19 data dashboard archive (https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/covid-19-archive-data- download). (Note: Scotland joined the Coronavirus (Covid-19) Infection Survey in September 2020, at which point accurate case data became available across the whole of the UK for the first time. Deaths were a lagged indicator of changes in the number of cases prior to this point.)

¶6.2. The second wave was predicted from early in the Covid-19 pandemic.³³ INQ000088245 Despite this, it was more deadly than the first wave, with over two-thirds of the UK's Covid-19- associated deaths reported prior to 1 April 2021 occurring after 1 September 2020.⁴⁴ INQ000249526_0099 para 306

¶1 INQ000048867_0002 para 1.4; INQ000088262_0002; INQ000375628. Scotland recorded an increase of 101 cases on 3 September 2020, followed by a further 146 cases on 7 September (INQ000214504_0002; INQ000214284_0002).

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¶6.3. The UK should have been well equipped to respond to the developing crisis. All four nations of the UK could draw upon their own and international experience of the first wave to facilitate decision-making. The "fog of uncertainty" that had permeated the early months of the pandemic had lifted.⁵⁵ INQ000232194_0008 para 31 Testing and surveillance capacity had been strengthened. Scientific understanding of the virus had matured. Data flows were much improved and, as a result, scientific advisers and decision-makers had access to more and better data. Intensive preparation in July and August 2020 had also been recommended to prepare for the risk of a winter resurgence of Covid-19, in light of concerns that the prevalence of the virus was increasing and would continue to do so into the winter months.⁶⁶ Preparing for a Challenging Winter 2020/21, The Academy of Medical Sciences, 14 July 2020, p3 (https://acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/51353957; INQ000440246); Patrick Vallance 20 November 2023 194/17-195/14

¶6.4. This chapter examines the decisions made by the UK government and devolved administrations and whether they learned or applied the lessons of the first wave.