The situation at the end of September 2020

The situation at the end of September 2020

¶6.113. On 23 September 2020, SPI-M-O warned that Covid-19 was "evolving rapidly" and

reiterated its support for a circuit breaker.²⁶⁸²⁶⁸ INQ000213284_0001, 0004 paras 3, 25; INQ000061567_0001-0002 SAGE warned that, unless R was reduced below 1, it was possible that infections and hospitalisations would "exceed scenario planning levels". It reiterated the advice that "the earlier additional measures are introduced the more effective they will be".²⁶⁹²⁶⁹ INQ000061567_0002 para 15

¶Table 4: Combined estimate of R and the growth rate in the UK, four nations and English NHS regions, 23 September 2020

¶Nation R Growth rate per day England 1.2–1.5 +4% to +8% Scotland 1.2–1.6 +4% to +9% Wales 1.0–1.4 +1% to +5% Northern Ireland 1.0–1.5 0% to +7% UK 1.2–1.5 +4% to +8%

¶NHS England region R Growth rate per day East of England 1.1–1.3 +1% to +4% London 1.2–1.5 +4% to +9% Midlands 1.2–1.5 +3% to +7% North East and Yorkshire 1.2–1.5 +4% to +8% North West 1.2–1.5 +3% to +9% South East 1.0–1.3 +1% to +5% South West 1.1–1.4 +1% to +6% Source: INQ000213284_0006

¶6.114. At an 'extraordinary' meeting of the Scottish Government Covid-19 Advisory Group

on 27 September 2020, it was noted that the pandemic was "[c]urrently heading fast in wrong direction", with the expectation of "a second wave in November".²⁷⁰²⁷⁰ INQ000217906_0001 The following day, Professor Smith and others advised Jeane Freeman MSP (Cabinet Secretary for Health and Sport in the Scottish Government from June 2018 to May 2021) that a number of measures should be introduced in Scotland from 21 September for six to eight weeks. Most significantly, they also recommended a firebreak, with a "general 'stay at home' order for 14 days from 12 October".²⁷¹²⁷¹ INQ000326427_0004-0005 paras 21-22

¶6.115. Professor Smith and his colleagues, however, submitted a further paper later that day "to strengthen our position", having considered "the emerging data and modelling".²⁷²²⁷² INQ000326426_0001 para 1 They stated that action in the hospitality sector and travel restrictions "may have to be in place for at least 12 weeks", adding:

" We remain of the view that a 'fire break' amounting to a general stay at home order may be required to be implemented quickly if our recommended measures do not have the desired effect. We do not propose at this stage a planned 'fire break' during the October school holidays but such a step may be required."²⁷³²⁷³ INQ000326426_0001 para 6

¶The advice given to the Scottish Government therefore changed from a planned firebreak lockdown to a wait and see approach.

¶6.116. On 28 September 2020, at a meeting with Arlene Foster MLA (later Baroness Foster of Aghadrumsee), First Minister of Northern Ireland from January 2016 to January 2017 and from January 2020 to June 2021, and Michelle O'Neill MLA (deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from January 2020 to February 2022), Professor McBride advised that the Northern Ireland Executive needed to consider circuit breakers. This was because modelling suggested that cases and admissions to hospital would increase rapidly. He warned that there were "6 more difficult months ahead".²⁷⁴²⁷⁴ INQ000304276_0002 On 30 September, Professor McBride observed that the position was "deeply concerning" and that time was not on their side.²⁷⁵²⁷⁵ INQ000304274_0002

¶6.117. On 30 September 2020, SPI-M-O concluded that the epidemic was "likely to breach the agreed reasonable worst case scenario over the next two weeks".²⁷⁶²⁷⁶ INQ000213274_0001 para 2 At a UK Cabinet meeting that day, Mr Johnson acknowledged that infections were continuing to increase across the country and that deaths had soared to the highest level in three months. However, he resolved that "now was the time to wait with composure and determination for the measures to kick in".²⁷⁷²⁷⁷ INQ000089096_0004-0005

¶6.118. The existing measures did not work. By 1 October 2020, SAGE indicated that it was "likely that infection incidence and hospital admissions will exceed scenario planning levels in the next two weeks".²⁷⁸²⁷⁸ INQ000120560_0001 paras 1-2 The latest estimate of R for the UK was 1.3 to 1.6. In Wales, 17 local health protection areas had been designated by 1 October, covering 15 of the 22 local authorities.²⁷⁹²⁷⁹ INQ000346272_0037 para 124 Within days, the numbers of infections and hospital admissions in England were exceeding reasonable worst-case scenario planning levels.²⁸⁰²⁸⁰ INQ000231036_0001, 0003 On 8 October, SAGE again reiterated its advice.²⁸¹²⁸¹ INQ000061569_0002-0003 paras 2, 19

¶6.119. COBR met on 12 October 2020. Mr Drakeford asked if there would be a further COBR meeting to discuss the possibility of circuit breakers.²⁸²²⁸² INQ000083851_0007 para 11 He told the Inquiry:

¶"The Prime Minister decided to stick with the tiered [local] approach in England."²⁸³²⁸³ INQ000371209_0067-0068 para 217

¶By this point, Mr Drakeford had come to the conclusion that:

" local lockdowns were not enough, and work started within the Welsh Government to plan the firebreak".²⁸⁴²⁸⁴ INQ000371209_0067-0068 para 217

¶6.120. The Welsh Government and Northern Ireland Executive subsequently moved away from localised responses and imposed short circuit breakers to try to restrict the growth of the epidemic. The UK and Scottish governments continued to seek to control the virus through localised restrictions.