January to May 2022

¶Figure 36: Estimated percentage of the population testing positive for Covid-19 from 1 December 2021 to 1 June 2022 across the UK

r2 22 22 20 20 22 — 22

1 y be ar ry h ril ay ne ua ar c Ap M Ju cem Janu br M

¶De Fe

¶Source: Coronavirus Infection Survey from 1 December 2021 to 1 June 2022 (Modelled estimates, 95% confidence intervals not shown). For raw data, see the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey: England, dataset, Office for National Statistics, 10 March 2023 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/ coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2023)

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¶Figure 37: Daily deaths per 100,000 population by date of death from 1 December 2021 to 1 June 2022 across the UK

02 22 22 22 22 22 — 22
r2 20 20 20 20 20 — 20

be ar y ry ch ril ay ne m nu ua ar Ap M Ju ce Ja br M De Fe

¶Source: UK Health Security Agency Covid-19 data dashboard archive (https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/covid-19-archive-data-download)

¶8.170. On 5 January 2022, Mr Yousaf said that the Scottish Government's task was to "somehow ensure our NHS doesn't completely collapse", but he was not sure that could be delivered because "we've lost the dressing room on this one".⁴⁶⁸⁴⁶⁸ INQ000334792_0049 As noted by Professor Linda Bauld (Chief Social Policy Adviser to the Scottish Government from September 2021 to April 2022), societal and economic harms were "very much coming to the fore".⁴⁶⁹⁴⁶⁹ INQ000346395_0034 para 106

¶8.171. Also on 5 January 2022, Covid-O agreed to remove testing requirements for fully vaccinated travellers.⁴⁷⁰⁴⁷⁰ INQ000091584_0001 At a UK Cabinet meeting, Mr Johnson explained that the Omicron variant was less severe and that:

" [T]he single best option for the country was to get through this period without going back to restrictions that had a large negative impact on the way of life of millions."⁴⁷¹⁴⁷¹ INQ000088948_0006

¶England would continue with Plan B for another three weeks.⁴⁷²⁴⁷² 'PM statement to the House of Commons on COVID-19: 5 January 2022', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 5 January 2022 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-to-the-house-of-commons-on-covid-19-5-january-2022; INQ000086671_0003)

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¶8.172. By 7 January 2022, the number of infections had continued to increase but had levelled in London. SAGE considered the most pessimistic scenarios were unlikely.⁴⁷³⁴⁷³ INQ000120662 It advised that non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented at this stage would have little effect on the peak but could affect hospitalisation levels, although this would be at a far lower level than if implemented earlier.⁴⁷⁴⁴⁷⁴ INQ000120662_0002 para 4

¶8.173. On 10 January 2022, Sir Frank Atherton advised the Welsh Cabinet that there was still "significant community transmission" and that "it was too early to tell whether the trajectory of cases had reversed".⁴⁷⁵⁴⁷⁵ INQ000057923_0002 paras 3.2-3.3 Dr Orford advised that "hospital admissions were tracking close to the scenario planning but symptoms were less severe for those who had been vaccinated".⁴⁷⁶⁴⁷⁶ INQ000057923_0002 para 3.5 By 13 January, Welsh case numbers and hospital admissions due to Covid-19 were falling.⁴⁷⁷⁴⁷⁷ INQ000057924 The Cabinet was advised that the peak of Omicron variant cases either had or would soon be reached. It agreed that there would be a return to Alert Level 0 measures from 28 January.⁴⁷⁸⁴⁷⁸ INQ000057924_0003 para 1.10

¶8.174. On 17 January 2022, restrictions in Scotland were relaxed to allow large outdoor events.⁴⁷⁹⁴⁷⁹ These events required at least 50% of the crowd to be checked for vaccine certificates. See 'Large outdoor events resume from 17 January', Scottish Government, 11 January 2022 (https://www.gov.scot/news/large-outdoor-events-resume-from-17-january; INQ000369712). Restrictions would be further relaxed from 24 January, with large indoor events resuming and social distancing rules being removed.⁴⁸⁰⁴⁸⁰ 'Omicron measures to be lifted', Scottish Government, 18 January 2022 (https://www.gov.scot/news/omicron-measures-to-be-lifted; INQ000584993)

¶8.175. In Northern Ireland, the Executive Committee met on 20 January 2022. Professor Young advised that hospital pressures were following the optimistic modelling scenario.⁴⁸¹⁴⁸¹ INQ000048555_0002 In light of this, the Executive Committee agreed to relax a number of restrictions to take effect on 21 and 26 January.⁴⁸²⁴⁸² INQ000048555_0007

¶8.176. On 27 January 2022, the UK government reverted to Plan A of COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021.⁴⁸³⁴⁸³ COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021, HM Government, September 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/ publications/covid-19-response-autumn-and-winter-plan-2021/covid-19-response-autumn-and-winter-plan-2021; INQ000137270); 'England returns to Plan A as regulations on face coverings and COVID passes change today', Department of Health and Social Care and Sajid Javid, 27 January 2022 (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/england-returns-to-plan-a-as-regulations-on-face-coverings- and-covid-passes-change-today; INQ000257262)Show full note The number of hospitalisations was declining.⁴⁸⁴⁴⁸⁴ INQ000120665 On the advice of Professors Whitty and Vallance, messaging was to remain cautious.⁴⁸⁵⁴⁸⁵ INQ000089038_0004-0007 The following day, restrictions on physical distancing and face masks were further reduced in Scotland.⁴⁸⁶⁴⁸⁶ 'Covid in Scotland: Rules on distancing and face masks relaxed further', BBC News, 28 January 2022 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60159431; INQ000357658)

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¶8.177. Most significantly, for reasons unrelated to the pandemic, Paul Givan MLA, First Minister of Northern Ireland from June 2021, resigned on 3 February 2022. As a result, Ms O'Neill also ceased to hold office and power-sharing collapsed. Jayne Brady, Head of the Northern Ireland Civil Service from September 2021, explained:

" In the absence of a First Minister and deputy First Minister as joint Chairs there was no functioning Executive during the period during which the other Ministers remained in office. Ministers could therefore only perform limited roles, within the specific responsibilities of their departments. No cross-cutting, significant or controversial decisions, which must be referred to the Executive under the terms of paragraph 2.4 of the Ministerial Code, could be taken in the absence of the Executive. In The Executive Office, without a First Minister and deputy First Minister in place, any departmental decision-making requiring Ministers was not possible."⁴⁸⁷⁴⁸⁷ INQ000421714_0012 para 42; Ministerial Code, Northern Ireland Executive, 6 April 2006 (https://www.northernireland.gov.uk/publications/northern-ireland-executive-ministerial-code; INQ000262764)

¶There was, therefore, no functioning Executive Committee in Northern Ireland from this point onwards. Power-sharing was not restored until 3 February 2024.

¶8.178. On 14 February 2022, Mr Swann wrote to his remaining Executive Committee colleagues regarding the management of health protection regulations in the absence of an Executive Committee.⁴⁸⁸⁴⁸⁸ INQ000271068 In an urgent written statement to the Northern Ireland Assembly the same day, Mr Swann confirmed that all remaining Covid-19 restrictions set out in regulations would be replaced by guidance on 15 February.⁴⁸⁹⁴⁸⁹ INQ000438259; The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions, Wearing of Face Coverings) (Revocation) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2022 (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2022/47/contents/made); The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2021 (revoked) (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2021/93/content); The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Wearing of Face Coverings) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2020 in their entirety (https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2020/164/contents/made)Show full note

¶8.179. In Wales, on 7 February 2022, "there was cautious optimism that the situation was improving and a gradual easement of protections was recommended".⁴⁹⁰⁴⁹⁰ INQ000022568_0002 para 3.5 Ministers agreed to retain self-isolation requirements, but the requirement to wear a face covering would be retained for retail, transport and public health settings only.⁴⁹¹⁴⁹¹ INQ000022568_0003 para 3.8

¶8.180. On 21 February 2022, the UK government announced COVID-19 Response: Living with COVID-19 for the continued management of the response.⁴⁹²⁴⁹² 'PM statement on living with COVID: 21 February 2022', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 21 February 2022 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-living-with-covid-21-february-2022; INQ000237518); COVID-19 Response: Living with COVID-19, HM Government, February 2022 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-response- living-with-covid-19; INQ000086652) Its stated objective was "to enable the country to manage COVID-19 like other respiratory illnesses".⁴⁹³⁴⁹³ COVID-19 Response: Living with COVID-19, HM Government, February 2022, para 20 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-response-living-with-covid-19; INQ00086652_0012)

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¶The strategy focused on the use of vaccines and support of the NHS and social care sector. There was a lack of specific plans in the event of a future variant of concern.

¶8.181. This followed conflict within the UK government over the strategy to be adopted moving forward and, in particular, with regard to the dismantling of infrastructure and apparatus.⁴⁹⁴⁴⁹⁴ INQ000302485_0040-0041 paras 124-126 In January 2022, Professor Vallance recorded in his evening notes that the Treasury was "totally against continued spend" on vaccines.⁴⁹⁵⁴⁹⁵ INQ000273901_0571 These issues came to a head on the morning of the announcement of the strategy. Mr Javid raised concerns with Mr Johnson about the dismantling of infrastructure around testing and lack of continued funding for scientific research.⁴⁹⁶⁴⁹⁶ INQ000302485_0040-0041 paras 124-126 Concerns had also been expressed by Professors Whitty and Vallance in respect of the emphasis on the actions to date to the detriment of future plans and an approach that was "too far on the 'it's all over' side of things".⁴⁹⁷⁴⁹⁷ INQ000198233; INQ000198234 It was considered to be "very light on what to do if there is a more severe variant".⁴⁹⁸⁴⁹⁸ INQ000198238

¶8.182. All remaining restrictions were lifted in England from 24 February 2022. This was accompanied by the withdrawal of free universal testing, as well as the ending of contact tracing, legal requirements to self-isolate and various forms of government funding. In his announcement to the public, Mr Johnson said:

" We have emerged from the teeth of the pandemic before many others … now we have the chance to complete that transition back towards normality, while maintaining the contingencies to respond to a resurgence or a new variant."⁴⁹⁹⁴⁹⁹ 'PM statement at Covid press conference: 21 February 2022', Prime Minister's Office and Boris Johnson, 21 February 2022 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-at-covid-press-conference-21-february-2022; INQ000281415)

¶8.183. On 22 February 2022, Ms Sturgeon announced that all legal requirements relating to Covid-19 would be removed in Scotland from 21 March.⁵⁰⁰⁵⁰⁰ 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech – 22 February 2022', Scottish Government, 22 February 2022 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-update-first-ministers-speech-tuesday-22-february-2022; INQ000353698) The Scottish Government's updated strategic framework was published on 22 February.⁵⁰¹⁵⁰¹ COVID-19: Scotland's Strategic Framework Update, Scottish Government, February 2022 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/ coronavirus-covid-19-scotlands-strategic-framework-update-february-2022/documents; INQ000147446) Its strategic intent was to:

" manage Covid-19 effectively, primarily through adaptations and health measures that strengthen our resilience and recovery, as we rebuild for a better future".⁵⁰²⁵⁰² Coronavirus (COVID-19) Strategic Framework Update February 2022: Equalities and Fairer Scotland Impact Assessment (EQFSIA), Scottish Government, February 2022 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-strategic-framework-update- february-2022-equalities-fairer-scotland-impact-assessment-eqfsia/pages/4; INQ000147453); INQ000273978_0149 para 596

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¶8.184. On 4 March 2022, the Welsh Government published Together for a Safer Future: Wales' Long-Term COVID-19 Transition from Pandemic to Endemic.⁵⁰³⁵⁰³ Together for a Safer Future: Wales' Long-Term COVID-19 Transition from Pandemic to Endemic, Welsh Government, March 2022 (https://www.gov.wales/wales-long-term-covid-19-transition-pandemic-endemic; INQ000066072) It outlined how Wales would "begin to move beyond the initial emergency phase … to plan a future in which we live with coronavirus, just as we live with many other infectious diseases".⁵⁰⁴⁵⁰⁴ Together for a Safer Future: Wales' Long-Term COVID-19 Transition from Pandemic to Endemic, Welsh Government, March 2022 (https://www.gov.wales/wales-long-term-covid-19-transition-pandemic-endemic; INQ000066072_0003) It said Covid Stable (additional waves that would not "put unsustainable pressure on the Health and Social Care System") was "the most likely scenario".⁵⁰⁵⁵⁰⁵ Together for a Safer Future: Wales' Long-Term COVID-19 Transition from Pandemic to Endemic, Welsh Government, March 2022 (https://www.gov.wales/wales-long-term-covid-19-transition-pandemic-endemic; INQ000066072_0007)

¶8.185. On 1 March 2022, R was estimated to be between 1.0 and 1.3 in Scotland.⁵⁰⁶⁵⁰⁶ 'Coronavirus (COVID-19): State of the epidemic – 18 March 2022', Scottish Government, 18 March 2022 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-state-epidemic-18-march-2022/documents; INQ000350991_0004) On 8 March, the Scottish Cabinet noted that there was a "deteriorating situation", which was putting additional pressure on the NHS.⁵⁰⁷⁵⁰⁷ INQ000214481_0002-0003 paras 7, 9, 11 On 9 March, Covid-19 hospitalisation figures in Scotland were at their highest for 13 months, with 1,636 people recorded.⁵⁰⁸⁵⁰⁸ 'Covid in Scotland: Hospital patient numbers highest in 13 months', BBC News, 10 March 2022 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60698453; INQ000548015) By 16 March, Covid-19 hospital occupancy had increased by 32% compared with the previous week and was reaching levels close to the previous peak in January 2021.⁵⁰⁹⁵⁰⁹ 'Coronavirus (COVID-19): State of the epidemic – 18 March 2022', Scottish Government, 18 March 2022 (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-state-epidemic-18-march-2022/documents; INQ000350991_0002) A sub-variant of Omicron, BA.2, was believed to be behind a surge in Covid-19 cases.⁵¹⁰⁵¹⁰ INQ000214482_0003 para 9 Against this backdrop, on 15 March the Scottish Government announced that the legal requirement to wear face coverings on public transport and in most indoor public settings would continue until at least early April, but all other requirements for businesses and service providers were to change from mandatory to advisory from 21 March.⁵¹¹⁵¹¹ 'Update on COVID regulations', Scottish Government, 15 March 2022 (https://www.gov.scot/news/update-on-covid-regulations; INQ000131013) The requirement to wear face coverings was subsequently extended until 18 April.⁵¹²⁵¹² 'Update on COVID-19 regulations', Scottish Government, 30 March 2022 (https://www.gov.scot/news/update-on-covid-19- regulations; INQ000326404)

¶8.186. Due to rising case numbers in Wales, on 24 March 2022, the Welsh Cabinet agreed that some restrictions on businesses would remain in place and that face coverings would continue to be required in health and social care settings.⁵¹³⁵¹³ INQ000058010_0002 para 1.4 By 12 April, Covid-19 hospital admissions in Wales had plateaued and "[t]hose in intensive care with the virus had remained lower than in previous waves".⁵¹⁴⁵¹⁴ INQ000130049_0003 para 2.4 Restrictions on businesses would be removed but the legal requirement for face coverings in health and social care settings would remain.⁵¹⁵⁵¹⁵ INQ000130049_0004 paras 2.7, 2.9, 2.10

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¶8.187. Hospital pressures due to Covid-19 in Scotland remained considerable in April 2022 and had been higher than the UK average since February 2022.⁵¹⁶⁵¹⁶ INQ000591920 On 28 April, the Scottish Government announced that public health advice would change to a 'stay at home' message (replacing self-isolation) from 1 May. Testing for the general population and contact tracing would end on 30 April and NHS Scotland would be taken out of its emergency footing at the end of the day on 30 April.⁵¹⁷⁵¹⁷ 'New "stay at home" guidance published', Scottish Government, 28 April 2022 (https://www.gov.scot/news/new-stay-at-home-guidance-published; INQ000370957)

¶8.188. By 23 May 2022, infection rates in Wales continued to wane and the vaccine was limiting the number of people experiencing serious direct harm. The Welsh Cabinet followed Sir Frank Atherton's advice and agreed to allow the requirement to wear a face covering in health and social care settings to expire on 30 May. All restrictions in the UK came to an end on 30 May 2022.⁵¹⁸⁵¹⁸ INQ000022580